Mitt Romney addresses NAACP. How many black votes might he win?
Mitt Romney addressed on Wednesday the annual convention of the nation鈥檚 leading civil rights group, the NAACP. His pitch: my economic policies will help millions of middle class Americans of all races.
鈥淚 believe that if you understood who I truly am in my heart, and if it were possible to fully communicate what I believe is in the real, enduring best interest of African-American families, you would vote for me for president,鈥� said Mr. Romney to the NAACP.
The presumptive GOP presidential nominee received a cool reception, despite his support for a number of policies the group opposes, including state voter ID laws. In contrast, Attorney General Eric Holder received a rousing reception on Monday by attacking voter ID, likening it to poll taxes designed to prevent minorities from voting.
This disparity pointed out the risks inherent in Romney鈥檚 appearance in Houston. 聽Given that he鈥檚 running to unseat the nation鈥檚 first African-American president, was this speech a waste of time for the former Massachusetts governor? What鈥檚 the upside here 鈥� how many black votes might he win?
The answer is 鈥渘ot many.鈥� But it was probably still worth it for the presumptive GOP nominee to make this speech.
First, the numbers. President Obama leads Romney among African-Americans by a whopping 92 percent to 6 percent, according to the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll. That鈥檚 the greatest disparity between the candidates for pretty much any demographic grouping.
For decades now the black vote has been a rock of support for Democratic presidents. Obama won 96 percent of African-Americans in 2008, for instance.
Reaching further back in time, George W. Bush won about 11 percent of African-Americans. Ronald Reagan took about 12 percent.
You have to go all the way back to the campaign of Richard Nixon in 1960 to find a Republican candidate who received substantially more minority votes. Nixon took 32 percent of black鈥檚 ballots in his (losing) effort that year. In 1964, Lyndon Johnson pushed through the Voting Rights Act. That鈥檚 what solidified the long drift of African-Americans towards the Democratic Party.
鈥淣o Republican presidential candidate has gotten more than 15 percent of the black vote since [1964],鈥� points out journalist Brooks Jackson in a 2008 on blacks and Democrats.
But for Romney, today鈥檚 speech was probably worth. Here are three reasons why:
He has to try.聽Given the closeness of the current presidential race, it appears as if every vote will count in November. In that context, Romney can鈥檛 afford to just write off a large demographic group. He may not get many African-American votes, but in the swing state of Virginia, say, a handful of ballots may swing the result either way.
It appeals to independents.聽Romney may not win many minority votes. But that鈥檚 not the whole point 鈥� there are substantial numbers of white voters who may be reluctant to support a presidential candidate who appears uninterested in reaching out to blacks. In that context, Romney鈥檚 appearance before the NAACP could be an attempt to appeal to moderates and soften his image.
Speaking to The Washington Post, former Alabama congressman Artur Davis, who recently switched his allegiance to the Republican Party, made this very point.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 know that Mitt Romney is going to the NAACP to get votes, and I don鈥檛 know that he is going there to persuade any sizable numbers of black voters to vote for him.... The more relevant question is whether a President Mitt Romney is going to govern in an inclusive way. There is a group of white voters who don鈥檛 want to vote for a party that is racially exclusive 聽... so Mitt Romney reaching out to African Americans is perhaps a statement to [that] group of voters,鈥� Davis told the Post.
It's a nod to the future.聽Romney may not win black votes in 2012, but his appearance could help lay the foundation for Republican candidates to make inroads in this constituency in coming years, according to former Republican National Committee chief Michael Steele.
鈥淎s far as I鈥檓 concerned, at this stage of the game this is kind of a moot point,鈥� Mr. Steele told in a story on black Republicans鈥� reaction to the speech.
Steele has long called on the GOP to appear less ideological and to try harder to strike up relationships with important minority constituencies.
鈥淭he RNC has done very little since I left office to expand on the work that we had done in this area,鈥� Steele told Talking Points Memo.聽
