After midterms, does anybody have a mandate?
| Washington
When President Joe Biden was asked at his post-midterms press conference what he might do differently going forward 鈥� given widespread American with the country鈥檚 direction 鈥� his answer was blunt: 鈥渘othing.鈥澛�
The problem isn鈥檛 with the Democratic agenda, the president suggested; it鈥檚 that Americans are 鈥渏ust finding out what we鈥檙e doing.鈥� And the more they know about recent measures, for example, to lower prescription drug prices and build roads and bridges, 鈥渢he more support there is.鈥�
The political context of his comment is key: The Democratic Party just defied expectations and survived Tuesday鈥檚 elections without the shellacking the past three presidents endured in their first midterms. Votes are still being counted, and control of the next House and Senate is still not determined, but President Biden feels empowered to stay the course.聽
Why We Wrote This
Divided government, should it occur, may be a recipe for gridlock. But with razor-thin margins, both parties might also be wary of overreaching. They could even find ways to work together.
Republicans, for their part, are nursing the wounds of a missed opportunity 鈥� the candidates promoted by former President Donald Trump who likely cost them Senate seats and possibly control of the chamber; the competing agendas and messages; the uneven fundraising.聽
What鈥檚 clear is that each house of Congress will be closely divided, as they are now, with current projections favoring a slim GOP majority in the House and the Democrats potentially keeping the Senate.聽
A Democratic White House and partially or perhaps fully Republican-controlled Congress may seem to be a recipe for gridlock 鈥� or worse. There鈥檚 already speculation about a possible government shutdown over the need to raise the federal debt ceiling by early 2023.聽A Republican-run House is also expected to launch investigations, such as into the president鈥檚 son and his international business ventures.
But not everyone in Washington is pessimistic.聽
鈥淭he country has a pretty long history of productive divided Congresses,鈥� says Jason Grumet, president of the Bipartisan Policy Center.
A strengthened center?聽
In Tuesday鈥檚 election results, Mr. Grumet sees the potential for a strengthened political center, after some centrist Democrats survived tough reelection fights against hard-right conservatives. He also points to Mr. Biden himself as a source of optimism, with his instincts as a longtime moderate senator perhaps coming to the fore in the next two years.聽
鈥淕oing into a presidential election where all the polling says people want competence, there鈥檚 an incentive鈥� to make deals, Mr. Grumet says.
Mr. Biden, in fact, could find divided government politically beneficial. A Republican-led House would give him a foil against which to operate heading into the 2024 presidential cycle, whether or not he runs again himself. And if Democrats hold the Senate, that would at least allow him to keep confirming federal judges (including Supreme Court justices) and senior administration appointees.
On policies that require congressional approval, the return of divided government in a highly polarized environment could lead to a variety of outcomes. A GOP-controlled Congress can be expected to pass bills that Republicans know will go nowhere, just to make a point. There鈥檚 the shutdown scenario, in which Republicans use their new leverage to try to force actions Democrats don鈥檛 want to take 鈥� such as cuts to social safety net programs. Or the two parties can swallow hard and work together.聽
How divided government can work
Some Washington veterans point to former President Bill Clinton as a model for how divided government can work effectively.聽After the 鈥淩epublican Revolution鈥� of 1994, when the Republicans gained 52 House seats, President Clinton tacked to the center and worked with GOP House Speaker Newt Gingrich to pass significant legislation, such as welfare reform and tax cuts.聽
By contrast, after both Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump suffered big midterm losses, they 鈥渄idn鈥檛 get anything done,鈥� says Ari Fleischer, who served as White House press secretary under President George W. Bush.聽
鈥淲hen the party out of power wins in the first midterm, the country is sending a signal that they want things to be different. It鈥檚 up to the president to decide how far or how much they鈥檒l go along with it,鈥� he says.
Although the Democratic Party has shifted steadily leftward over the past 20 years, if Mr. Biden 鈥済overns to the Joe Manchin center, a lot can get done,鈥� Mr. Fleischer contends, referring to the conservative Democratic senator from West Virginia. He adds, 鈥淭he Republicans have to play ball, too.鈥澛�
To that point, after the Democrats lost 63 House seats in the 2010 midterms, President Obama faced significant GOP intransigence in Congress, forcing him to resort to executive action to enact policy. It鈥檚 possible Mr. Biden will face the same GOP brick wall come January.聽
The history of divided government shows that when both sides have an incentive to cooperate, they will do so, says Sam Kernell, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego.聽But those instances are more rare than common.
鈥淐onflict is embedded in this relationship,鈥� Professor Kernell says.聽
Sometimes, though, a desire not to be seen as overreaching can prompt restraint.
When neither party has a mandate
Indeed, for all the president鈥檚 bravado at yesterday鈥檚 press conference, this was the type of election that can be seen as chastening for both sides. Neither party came away with a mandate from voters to swing for the fences.聽
Mr. Biden鈥檚 job approval ratings, mired in the low 40s, and high inflation likely cost his party a number of congressional seats and possibly control of the House.
Likewise, following their weaker-than-expected electoral performance, there are already signs that Republicans are softening their posture.聽
Before Tuesday, the GOP appeared to be teeing up an array of investigations into the Biden administration. An inquiry into Hunter Biden, who is already under investigation by the Justice Department over tax issues, and the president鈥檚 knowledge of his son鈥檚 business dealings still tops the list. But other possible investigations, including into COVID-19 origins, Dr. Anthony Fauci, and the messy U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, may fall by the wayside. There also may be less enthusiasm for efforts by some House Republicans to impeach the president.聽
鈥淗unter Biden, the country will accept that,鈥� former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway last week. 鈥淏ut why would you ever impeach Joe Biden? I want him to run again.鈥澛�
Democratic strategists say the midterms showed that voters want to move on from Mr. Trump and 鈥淢AGA鈥�-aligned candidates, especially after the Jan. 6, 2021, violent siege of the Capitol by Trump supporters. Instead, they say, there鈥檚 demand for a return to the serious business of governing.聽
鈥淭his election can be read as a rejection of extremism,鈥� says Simon Rosenberg, founder of the center-left New Democrat Network think tank. 鈥淚t鈥檚 my hope that the grip of MAGA has been a little bit loosened over the Republican Party.鈥�
The 117th Congress has actually had its share of across-the-aisle cooperation. The Bipartisan Policy Center counts 20 significant pieces of bipartisan legislation that either were signed into law 鈥� including the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the CHIPS and Science Act 鈥� or are in the works.
Perhaps the Republicans and Democrats of the 118th Congress will decide they can keep working together. It doesn鈥檛 have to be big or expensive, observers say. Just something that keeps the muscle memory alive and shows voters their government isn鈥檛 broken.
