鈥楶eople are just really unhappy鈥�: Why Biden is so unpopular now
| Washington
If there鈥檚 one thing political analysts agree on, across the spectrum, it鈥檚 this: President Joe Biden is in a slump. Left, right, and center; with young voters, Hispanics, and African Americans, the president鈥檚 job approval numbers are in the doldrums 鈥� and among key Democratic-leaning voter blocs, some polls show a marked decline.聽
The spike in gas prices and 40-year-high inflation are prime culprits. So, too, is the pandemic, grinding on into its third year. Russia鈥檚 brutal attack on Ukraine has not produced the kind of 鈥渞ally around the flag鈥� effect that American presidents often enjoy in the initial phases of an international crisis, despite early bipartisan praise for President Biden鈥檚 handling of the war.聽
Political polarization has hardened, analysts say, making it well-nigh impossible for any president to unify the country 鈥� a Biden campaign promise that has failed to materialize.
Why We Wrote This
Amid a slew of challenges at home and abroad, President Joe Biden鈥檚 job approval has tanked. Some factors may be beyond his control, but Democrats are hoping he can turn things around before the midterms.
鈥淢ainly what we鈥檙e seeing is the strength of partisanship,鈥� says Douglas Kriner, a professor of government at Cornell University.聽
All of the above bodes ill for Democrats鈥� prospects in the November midterm elections, which would be an uphill battle even in less challenging times. Since World War II, almost without exception, the president鈥檚 party has lost seats in the midterms 鈥� .
Democrats, currently with narrow control of both houses of Congress, face the possibility of an energized Republican opposition holding power at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue come January and thwarting all but the most essential legislation.聽
That may explain the recent return of former President Barack Obama to the White House for the first time in five years. He was there to celebrate the 12th anniversary of the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, the landmark legislation that added millions of Americans to health care rolls. An unspoken goal may have been to sprinkle stardust on his struggling former vice president. In fact, the visit by the gray-haired but still charismatic former president may have only served to emphasize their contrasting styles.聽
Still, Democratic strategists have far from given up on November.
Mr. Biden spent the 鈥渉oneymoon phase鈥� of his presidency with job approvals averaging just above 50%, a benchmark his predecessor, President Donald Trump, never reached. , there鈥檚 no reason Mr. Biden can鈥檛 do better going forward, Democrats say.聽
When asked by reporters about the November elections at the recent White House event, former President Obama suggested a way forward: 鈥淲e鈥檝e got a story to tell. Just gotta tell it.鈥澛�
Gallup, NBC News
Matt Barreto, a Democratic pollster based in Los Angeles who does work for the Democratic National Committee, echoes that sentiment.聽鈥淒emocrats have to continue talking about what we have done, and reminding the American public that the Republicans don鈥檛 have a plan,鈥� Mr. Barreto says.聽
He ticks off what he considers the biggest accomplishments of Mr. Biden鈥檚 first 15 months in office: the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, major infrastructure legislation, the rollout of a historic mass-vaccination program against COVID-19.
鈥淒emocrats are demoralized鈥�
Celinda Lake, a Washington-based Democratic pollster who does survey research for Democratic Party committees, sees the president鈥檚 slump in the polls as a sign that 鈥減eople are just really unhappy with life.鈥澛�
鈥淥f course they鈥檙e going to take it out on the president,鈥� Ms. Lake says.聽
鈥淭he biggest concern I have is that the Republicans are supercharged, and the Democrats are demoralized,鈥� she adds. 鈥淎nd we always have more trouble getting out our vote in off-year elections.鈥澛�
She sees a forthcoming Supreme Court decision that may cut back on abortion rights, plus the House investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol, as potentially galvanizing for Democrats.聽
鈥淓lections are a choice, not just an up-or-down referendum, and we need to start framing up the choice,鈥� Ms. Lake says.
Perhaps most concerning for Democrats is Mr. Biden鈥檚 slumping approval among key demographics: young voters, Hispanics, and African Americans. The danger is that too many of these reliably Democratic voters will wind up staying home in November 鈥� not that they become Republicans.
Among younger voters, the decline in support for Mr. Biden has been especially marked. showed that among Generation Z (born between 1997 and 2004), support for Mr. Biden has declined 21 percentage points since his first six months in office, from 60% to 39%. Among millennials (born between 1981 and 1996), the drop is 19 percentage points. Among Generation X (born between 1964 and 1980), it鈥檚 15 points.聽
鈥淵ounger voters will need to feel real improvement in the economy鈥� for them to be motivated to vote, writes Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson in an email. Many have been hit hard, for example, by a steep increase in rents.
鈥淭here are things that could change that in the short run and create a burst of attention and engagement 鈥� for instance, if a Supreme Court ruling makes an issue like abortion more salient,鈥� she says.聽But 鈥渨ithout addressing the underlying economic strain younger voters are facing,鈥� she adds, 鈥渢hey may remain reluctant to turn out.鈥澛�
Another X-factor in the midterms is whether 鈥渘egative partisanship鈥� 鈥� voting more in opposition to one party than in favor of the other 鈥� will play a big role. That could depend largely on how big a role former President Trump plays. In the 2020 election, he spurred high levels of voting not just among supporters, but also among opponents, who might otherwise have not been motivated to turn out for Mr. Biden.
The prospect of a comeback attempt by Mr. Trump in the 2024 presidential race looms large over the 2022 midterms.聽
鈥淭he question is how salient Trump or the threat of success by Trump-aligned candidates is for the average Democratic voter,鈥� says John Sides, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University.聽
鈥淧art of what the Democrats have to do is define the election in those terms,鈥� he adds. 鈥淎s always, it鈥檚 not just a referendum on Biden; it鈥檚 a choice between Biden and a Republican Party or Republican candidates that raise the risk of a return of Trump.鈥�
Biden-Harris outreach
Mr. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have been traveling the country, highlighting infrastructure projects, and efforts to lower consumer costs and create jobs. Recently the administration has been reaching out to , which has swung away from Democrats in recent years.聽
But looking overall at the decline in the president鈥檚 support, Mr. Sides isn鈥檛 sure how much Mr. Biden can do on his own to win it back.聽
鈥淭he culprit is, as always, things outside of Biden鈥檚 control much more than things under Biden鈥檚 control,鈥� he says, pointing to the continuing pandemic, inflation, and fallout from the bungled U.S. pullout from Afghanistan last summer.聽Mr. Biden, he acknowledges, is responsible in part for inflation because of the American Rescue Plan鈥檚 size, and for what happened in Afghanistan.
On the other hand, Republican pollster Whit Ayres sees Mr. Biden鈥檚 challenges as mostly a self-inflicted wound.聽鈥淗e鈥檚 squandered the majority [support] he had a little over a year ago by the decisions he鈥檚 made and the way he has governed,鈥� Mr. Ayres says.
He highlights what he sees as a premature declaration of victory over COVID-19, the initial dismissal of inflation as temporary, the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the lengthy negotiating over the Build Back Better legislation, which has yet to produce results.聽
The foreign policy decisions made him look incompetent to the larger public, Mr. Ayres says, while the domestic policy negotiations harmed his standings among both liberal and moderate Democrats.聽
鈥淚t raised expectations of liberals before dashing them. So the left is demoralized,鈥� he says. And 鈥渋t made people who voted for him as a center-left moderate feel like they鈥檇 been sold a bill of goods 鈥� that he ran for president one way and governed another.鈥�
