鈥楬e poked mama bear鈥�: Education clashes shape Virginia governor鈥檚 race
| Burke, Va.
Lisa Andrews can recite verbatim the now-infamous debate remark made by Democrat and former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe. And it鈥檚 why she鈥檚 out so late on a school night.聽
鈥溾�業 don鈥檛 think parents should be telling schools what they should teach,鈥欌�� quotes the Fairfax mother, at an event for GOP candidate Glenn Youngkin with her young sons Austin and Aidan.聽
She鈥檚 not the only mother who was angered by Mr. McAuliffe鈥檚 statement, made in response to a question about a bill he vetoed as governor. Known as the 鈥淏eloved bill,鈥� it would have allowed parents to opt their children out of sexually explicit reading assignments, such as the Pulitzer Prize-winning classic by Toni Morrison. Despite Mr. McAuliffe鈥檚 claim that his remark was taken , it has come to define the final stretch of this campaign 鈥� adding gasoline to an already blazing fire in the commonwealth over education.
Why We Wrote This
Parental frustration over last year鈥檚 school closures and curriculum changes around race may be making Virginia鈥檚 suburbs 鈥� which had been shifting Democratic 鈥� newly competitive.
Education is always an issue in governors鈥� races. And typically, it favors Democrats. But Virginia, like many states, is coming off a pandemic year marked by contentious, and in some cases even violent,聽school board meetings, in which parents became increasingly frustrated about school closures that many blamed on teachers unions and their Democratic allies.
While all of Virginia鈥檚 132 school districts are back to full-time, in-person learning, tensions have continued to simmer over issues like vaccine requirements and mask mandates. Additionally, many parents, particularly in the critical Northern Virginia suburbs, have taken issue with what they see as radical curriculum changes around race and identity, and a relaxing of standards in the name of equity.
Mr. Youngkin, a former private equity CEO and first-time politician, has made education a core focus of his campaign. He鈥檚 held a series of 鈥淧arents Matter鈥� rallies across the state, promising to 鈥渞estore Virginia鈥檚 academic excellence鈥� and ban 鈥渃ritical race theory鈥� in schools. His campaign has been blanketing the airwaves with ,聽including one in which he promises to increase the education budget and teacher pay.聽
It appears to be working. In a state Joe Biden won just one year ago by 10 percentage points, polls now suggest a highly competitive race 鈥� with Mr. McAuliffe losing significant ground in recent weeks, including a double-digit drop among women.聽
If Mr. Youngkin wins tomorrow, Republicans will almost certainly see this race as a playbook for the 2022 midterm elections: a template for how to win back moderate suburbanites who had shifted away from the party under former President Donald Trump.聽
More broadly, the battle over education in Virginia points to a core question emerging in many states and localities: Just how much input should parents have into their children鈥檚 government-funded education? After watching school unfold in real time over Zoom last year, many parents found they didn鈥檛 always agree with what they were seeing 鈥� galvanizing previously non-voting mothers like Ms. Andrews to get more involved.聽
鈥淓verything going on with the schools is making me zone in on this race,鈥� says Ms. Andrews. 鈥淭o moms, your children鈥檚 education is the most important thing.鈥澛�
School board moms
Like 鈥渟occer moms鈥� of the 1990s, or 鈥渟ecurity moms鈥� of the 2000s, this year鈥檚聽鈥渟chool board moms鈥� have already been dubbed a pivotal swing vote.聽
鈥淭hese are independent women who live in the suburbs and are concerned about what鈥檚 going on in their kids鈥� schools,鈥� says Jennifer Lawless, an expert on women and politics at the University of Virginia. 鈥淭hey were the ones responsible for providing homeschooling for a year, they are implementing COVID protocols in their home, and in many places, they believe they know better than the government what their kids should be learning.鈥�
College-educated women, many of them suburban mothers, moved markedly away from the Republican Party over the past five years, largely because of their distaste for former President Trump. The trend was especially pronounced in Virginia, where current Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam won by 9 percentage points in 2017, thanks to聽.听听
But Mr. Trump is no longer center stage. And those suburban voters who shifted to the Democrats are hardly a sure thing for the party going forward, says Patrick Murray, director of Monmouth University Polling Institute. 鈥淏ecause they haven鈥檛 been voting Democratic for all that long, you can still move them.鈥澛�
Historically, Virginia鈥檚 governor鈥檚 race 鈥� which occurs every four years between presidential and congressional midterm elections 鈥� has often swung against the party that holds the White House. Mr. McAuliffe鈥檚 election in 2013, following President Barack Obama鈥檚 reelection to a second term, was an aberration in that regard.
To be sure, most voters choose their candidate based purely on party identification. And given President Biden鈥檚 easy victory last year, and Virginia鈥檚 increasingly blue hue in recent election cycles, Professor Lawless says she remains a 鈥渓ittle bit skeptical鈥� about the possibility of a Youngkin victory, despite his apparent momentum in the polls.聽
Still, the Republicans鈥� focus on education has been smart, she adds. The underlying point Mr. Youngkin is making fits with the larger Republican message that parents, not the government, should have the ultimate say in decisions that impact their families鈥� lives.聽
础听 released late last week found Mr. McAuliffe leading among likely voters by a single point, with education now ranking among voters鈥� top three concerns.聽Likewise, a聽聽from late October not only had Mr. McAuliffe and Mr. Youngkin tied among registered voters, but found education and schools had replaced COVID-19 as voters鈥� second most important issue behind the economy 鈥� with Mr. Youngkin trusted slightly more to handle it. Notably, Mr. McAuliffe鈥檚聽聽in September had shrunk to just four points, with Mr. McAuliffe鈥檚 lead on the issue of education specifically shrinking 10 points among women.聽
The Trump factor
At a rally for Mr. McAuliffe in Arlington, supporters of the former Democratic National Committee chair and longtime Clinton confidante list a host of other concerns 鈥� such as abortion and the pandemic 鈥� influencing their decision.
鈥淚f Youngkin gets in, I鈥檓 fearful that Virginia could go the way of Texas on abortion or Florida on COVID,鈥� says Erica Clayton, who鈥檚 waiting to enter the rally with her two children.聽
鈥淚 have two daughters, so it鈥檚 important to me that they have the same choices that my generation was afforded [on abortion], if not more,鈥� says Ryann Morales, a midwife from Alexandria who is also attending the event with her children.聽
For many, the possibility of another presidential run by Mr. Trump also remains a singular reason to vote Democratic.
鈥淚 just don鈥檛 want Trump to gain any traction anywhere,鈥� says Rebecca Henry, a mother from Springfield. 鈥淗e needs to continue to lose everywhere.鈥澛�
Mr. McAuliffe has tried hard to tie Mr. Youngkin to the former president, telling supporters over the weekend:聽鈥淭rump wants to win here so he can announce for president for 2024.鈥� Mr. Trump himself seemed to echo that point on Monday, issuing a statement refuting reports that he and Mr. Youngkin were 鈥渁t odds,鈥� and insisting 鈥渨e get along well together and strongly believe in many of the same policies.鈥�
The McAuliffe campaign has also belatedly tried to turn the education issue back to its advantage. At a rally last week with President Biden, copies of 鈥淏eloved鈥� were distributed to with warnings about a governor who was willing to ban books. And a slate of Democratic surrogates repeatedly emphasized Mr. McAuliffe鈥檚 educational achievements during his term in office.
But it might be too little too late.
Some of Mr. Youngkin鈥檚 success thus far may be specific to him. The former Carlyle Group executive has tried to walk a fine line in his efforts to appeal to both pro-Trump conservatives and anti-Trump moderates 鈥� a task that has stymied many other GOP candidates. He has accepted the former president鈥檚 endorsement, but has also mostly held him at arm鈥檚 length, never campaigning in person with him. Last month, after Trump supporters at a 鈥淭ake Back Virginia鈥� rally pledged allegiance to a flag supposedly carried at the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, Mr. Youngkin 鈥� who did not attend the event 鈥� issued a statement calling it 鈥渨eird and wrong.鈥澛�
Many GOP strategists see Mr. Youngkin as mapping out a path for Republicans to ride the education culture wars all the way back to control of the U.S. House and Senate, and possibly even the White House. If the party can win back a portion of the suburban vote it lost during the Trump years, while retaining or even growing its hold on working-class voters, it would make for a powerful electoral coalition.聽
鈥淭his is basically the crucible for what is going to come in 2022,鈥� says John Fredericks, chairman of Mr. Trump鈥檚 Virginia campaign in 2016 and 2020. 鈥淚t鈥檚 going to drive Republican [turnout] through the roof.鈥�
Waiting for Mr. Youngkin鈥檚 event to begin at the Burke Fire and Rescue Department, Heather Metz and Anne Taydus describe Mr. McAuliffe鈥檚 debate comment as a Freudian slip: an insight into how Democrats really feel about parents.
鈥淚t鈥檚 like, 鈥楾erry, are you their father?鈥欌�� says Ms. Taydus sarcastically. She gestures to Ms. Metz and the other women around her. 鈥淗e poked mama bear. That鈥檚 a mistake.鈥�
