海角大神

At Todos Supermarket, one of Virginia鈥檚 largest Hispanic grocery stores, Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin is making the case for his pro-business agenda.

Working a stint at the cash register, he hands one woman her change. 鈥淚 hope you know how to count money, unlike the current governor,鈥� she quips.听

The former CEO explains his plan to eliminate the grocery tax, suspend the gas tax, and invest in education 鈥� all of which sound great to Todos鈥� owner, Carlos Castro.

But Mr. Castro says he has a more pressing concern right now: curbing COVID-19.

Pandemic-induced shortages of equipment, supplies, and labor have delayed the opening of his second Todos store. Enhanced unemployment benefits, he says, have made it difficult to retain staff. And it鈥檚 been a constant battle to encourage customers to wear masks and employees to get vaccinated.

For years, GOP candidates like Mr. Youngkin have cast themselves as 鈥減ro-business鈥� by hewing to a platform of tax cuts and deregulation. But 18 months into a global pandemic, the definition of 鈥減ro-business鈥� may be shifting, with many voters now seeing the economy and public health as inextricably linked. Democratic candidates such as former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe 鈥� who鈥檚 locked in a tight race with Mr. Youngkin 鈥� are leaning into that position, arguing that mask and vaccine mandates are, in fact, business-boosting measures, and that there will be no real economic recovery until the pandemic is contained.

With early voting already underway in Virginia and just five weeks until Election Day, the issue is shaping up as a critical test of how the politics of the pandemic could play out in next year鈥檚 midterm elections.听

鈥淭he vaccine mandate is really controversial with a lot of Republican voters,鈥� says GOP strategist Alex Conant. 鈥淏ut some business owners welcome the mandates. It allows their employees to be mad at Biden and not them.鈥�

That鈥檚 certainly the case for Mr. Castro, who says he鈥檚 more than happy for the federal government to step in.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a blessing for us, because we don鈥檛 have to deal with it,鈥� says Mr. Castro. 鈥淣ow I don鈥檛 have to be fighting with anybody.鈥澛�

A sharp partisan split

Under the new requirements announced earlier this month by President Joe Biden, employers like Mr. Castro with 聽must soon have a fully vaccinated workforce or provide weekly testing. Federal workers must be vaccinated or face losing their jobs. Altogether, the mandates will apply to of American workers.听

In his speech, President Biden noted that many major companies 鈥� such as Fox News 鈥� have already implemented similar restrictions on their own.听

鈥淚f you look at the polling, businesses support vaccination,鈥� says Mr. McAuliffe, a former Democratic National Committee chair who served as Virginia鈥檚 governor from 2014-2018. 鈥淚 want to build a booming economy again, and you can鈥檛 do that with COVID. Businesses are not going to move to a county with sky-high rates of COVID and low rates of vaccinations.鈥�

Democrats believe this message 鈥� that a healthy economy first means controlling the pandemic 鈥� is a winning one. In his recall election victory speech two weeks ago, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said the outcome was a vote for vaccines and 鈥�.鈥澛�

鈥淰oters in California didn鈥檛 like that Newsom had that fancy dinner [during lockdown], but they thought that it鈥檚 better to have this set of pandemic politics than what you get with a Republican,鈥� says Bill Kristol, a conservative commentator and prominent Trump critic, who has endorsed Mr. McAuliffe in the Virginia governor鈥檚 race. 鈥淚f you look at the world over the past 200 years, it鈥檚 good for the economy to have good public health.鈥�

According to a recent poll by Morning Consult, 58% of Americans support the Biden administration鈥檚 vaccine mandates. But there鈥檚 a big partisan split, with聽聽but only one-third of Republicans in favor.

Former President Donald Trump has harshly rebuked the vaccine requirements, as have Republican governors across the country. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told his state鈥檚 cities and counties they would be if they require public workers to be vaccinated; Texas Gov. Greg Abbott had already issued . Mississippi鈥檚 governor called Mr. Biden鈥檚 mandates a form of 鈥�,鈥� and South Carolina鈥檚 vowed to fight Mr. Biden to 鈥�.鈥� Republican attorneys general from 24 states have .听

Mr. Youngkin, who has emphasized that he is a strong proponent of vaccination, says many business owners have told him they don鈥檛 want mandates imposed on them and their employees.听

鈥淭he vaccine is the best way for people to protect their health, but it is an individual鈥檚 decision. If businesses want to act, then it is the business鈥檚 decision,鈥� says Mr. Youngkin. 鈥淢andates are not the answer.鈥�

The first-time politician is walking an especially delicate line in Virginia, a former swing state that turned decidedly bluer over the past decade. Ranked CNBC鈥檚 聽for the past two years in a row, Virginia will likely have its聽gubernatorial election decided by turnout in the outside Washington, where many voters support stronger steps to prevent the virus鈥檚 spread.听

鈥淩epublicans are sick of the pandemic too,鈥� says GOP strategist Whit Ayres. 鈥淎 reflexive less-regulation message may not be effective when it comes to dealing with the pandemic.鈥澛�

Story Hinckley/海角大神

Carlos Castro, owner of Todos Supermarket in Woodbridge, Virginia, says he welcomes President Joe Biden's vaccine mandates. "Now I don鈥檛 have to be fighting with anybody," says Mr. Castro, who has struggled to retain employees during the pandemic. "We need to get people back to work. We need to get the economy moving."

鈥淲e need to get the economy moving鈥�

But general concerns about the economy 鈥� even if stemming from the pandemic鈥檚 effects 鈥� could still work to Mr. Youngkin鈥檚 benefit.听In a , registered voters in Virginia ranked the economy as the top voting issue in November鈥檚 election, followed by the coronavirus. While voters trusted Mr. McAuliffe to do a better job handling the pandemic by 44% to 35%, Mr. Youngkin had a one-percentage-point edge on handling the economy.听

鈥淔or business owners, there is a lot more that goes into [their vote] than 鈥楧o you support vaccine mandates?鈥� 鈥� and those are the reasons that they have traditionally supported Republicans,鈥� says Mr. Conant, the GOP strategist.听

Mr. Castro, for his part, says he hasn鈥檛 decided for whom he will vote. He backed Mr. McAuliffe in 2014, and thought he was a good governor. But he also says he believes in 鈥減olitical diversity鈥� and wants to support more moderate Republicans, who might steer the party toward the center on issues like immigration. As an employer, he鈥檚 worried that pro-union Democrats in Congress may weaken or even nullify Virginia鈥檚 鈥渞ight to work鈥� law.

Still, he says his vote will likely come down to which candidate will end the pandemic more quickly 鈥� and right now, he believes that鈥檚 Mr. McAuliffe.听

鈥淲e need to get people back to work,鈥� says Mr. Castro. 鈥淲e need to get the economy moving.鈥�