Trump in 2024? For now, president鈥檚 hints are freezing GOP field.
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| Washington
President Donald Trump has yet to concede the 2020 election, but a long list of potential Republican hopefuls for 2024 is already forming 鈥 including President Trump himself.
Not since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 has a former president actively run for another term after leaving the White House. But Mr. Trump, never a slave to convention, may well run again. He suggested as much Tuesday at a White House Christmas party.
鈥淚t鈥檚 been an amazing four years,鈥 the president , according to a livestream viewed by reporters. 鈥淲e are trying to do another four years. Otherwise, I鈥檒l see you in four years.鈥
Why We Wrote This
When is it time to walk away? For Donald Trump in this election cycle, not yet. Still pressing legal challenges, he has yet to concede, even as he hints at running again in four years. Is that good for the GOP?
Mr. Trump鈥檚 legal effort to overturn Joe Biden鈥檚 Nov. 3 election continues, despite so far among dozens of lawsuits. But after the court cases run their course, and assuming Mr. Biden wins in the Electoral College on Dec. 14, Trump allies predict he鈥檒l announce for 2024.
鈥淚f he does not win this election, he鈥檒l run again,鈥 says Republican strategist Ford O鈥機onnell.
In fact, the massive fundraising haul the Trump campaign announced Thursday 鈥 since Election Day, to be shared with the Republican National Committee 鈥 could be a harbinger of things to come.
鈥淚t helps to set the groundwork for 2024 if he so chooses,鈥 Mr. O鈥機onnell says.
Either way, comeback bid or not, Mr. Trump is likely to loom large over U.S. politics for the foreseeable future.
Still popular within the GOP, he can influence races up and down the ballot 鈥 including the two crucial Senate runoffs in Georgia next month 鈥 as well as legislation in Congress and, longer term, the battle for the soul of the Republican Party.
On Saturday evening, the president will appear in Valdosta, Georgia, alongside the state鈥檚 Republican senators, Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, both of whom face runoff elections on Jan. 5. Both races are ranked as toss-ups, especially after Mr. Trump unexpectedly lost Georgia to Mr. Biden last month, and will determine control of the Senate.
The president鈥檚 remarks will be watched closely for any clues to his future plans.
Keeping the media spotlight
But for now, Mr. Trump remains a force in Republican politics, especially as he teases another run at the presidency. And that has the effect of freezing the 2024 field. This is intentional, say people who know the president. Even just suggesting he鈥檒l run again keeps the media spotlight on him, starving other potential candidates of the attention he craves. indicate Mr. Trump might hold his own event on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, and potentially even announce a 2024 campaign then.
鈥淩ight now, no Republican will stand up to challenge him,鈥 says Steven Schier, professor emeritus of political science at Carleton College in Minnesota. 鈥淏ut will he look as formidable in a few years?鈥
More clues could emerge next month at the winter meeting of the Republican National Committee, to be held in Amelia Island, Florida. Party chair Ronna McDaniel has invited more than a dozen likely 2020 aspirants to speak, effectively the 鈥渇irst cattle call鈥 of the 2024 cycle.
Mr. Trump is invited, but hasn鈥檛 said if he鈥檚 going. Vice President Mike Pence, who has long eyed the top job, is reportedly planning to attend.
Last year, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, the runner-up to Mr. Trump in 2016, told the Monitor, 鈥淚 hope to run again.鈥 He鈥檚 among those invited to Amelia Island.
Other invitees reportedly include Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, and Florida Sens. Marco Rubio and Rick Scott.
Already, several of those listed 鈥 including Vice President Pence 鈥 have traveled to Georgia to campaign for the two GOP Senate candidates and build capital within the party.
Post-Trump era starting
In Washington 鈥 and Wilmington, Delaware, Mr. Biden鈥檚 hometown base of operations, for now 鈥 the post-Trump era is already taking shape. As the president-elect announces his cabinet and other top aides, the challenge of effecting a presidential transition during a pandemic and economic crisis moves closer to reality.
Soon the political world won鈥檛 hang on Mr. Trump鈥檚 every utterance and tweet. That suggests, some analysts say, a world that in fact moves on from the former reality TV actor and real estate developer, who improbably won the presidency four years ago as an outsider who sought to shake up Washington.
鈥淗e鈥檚 very good at controlling the news cycle,鈥 says Julia Azari, a political scientist at Marquette University in Wisconsin. 鈥淏ut come January, there will be other stories, and it may be a point at which the news media largely move on.鈥
The spectacle of an ex-president 鈥渕ay not have the novelty of a Trump in 2015 or the news justification of a Trump as president,鈥 she adds.
The new Congress, addressing the agenda of a new, Democratic president, could also make Mr. Trump less relevant.
But for now, the president still commands center stage in the Republican Party 鈥 especially given the possibility he may run again, and the fundraising clout that brings.
Of the $207.5 million the Republican National Committee has raised since the election, some will go toward the president鈥檚 legal efforts but most won鈥檛. Initially, half of the postelection fundraising went to retire Mr. Trump鈥檚 campaign debt, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.
Then, , the fundraising shifted gears, and 60% of donations to Trump鈥檚 鈥淥fficial Election Defense Fund鈥 now go to his new 鈥渓eadership political action committee.鈥 The leadership PAC, known as Save America, is not an official campaign committee 鈥渂ut could begin to lay the groundwork for a potential 2024 bid.鈥
Leadership PAC funds may also be used to pay personal expenses, which the president has done, according to CRP.