Bloomberg bets old rules of politics no longer apply. He may be right.
| New York
Just a month ago, most political observers believed former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg鈥檚 chances of winning the Democratic nomination for president were decidedly聽.
The New York billionaire聽announced his candidacy too late to get his name on the ballots of the first four states. And in the modern era, no candidate 鈥� Republican or Democrat 鈥� has won their party鈥檚 nomination without placing at least 2nd in either Iowa or New Hampshire. Bill Clinton was the only candidate to capture the nomination without winning at least one of the two.
But Mayor Bloomberg believes he can do what has never been done before. Perceiving a political landscape radically altered by the plate tectonics of digital media and targeted messaging 鈥� as well as Democratic voters鈥� growing antipathy toward the influence of two overwhelmingly white states 鈥� he saw a path that didn鈥檛 involve glad-handing in Iowa and New Hampshire living rooms.
Why We Wrote This
Bypassing early states while blanketing airwaves elsewhere, the former New York mayor tries to chart a new path to the presidency 鈥� showing how U.S. politics are being changed by digital and targeted messaging, and the power of money.
In some ways, Mr. Bloomberg is running both a stealth and carpet-bomb campaign. Until recently, he鈥檚 been deemphasizing retail politics, instead communicating with voters via targeted online ads, YouTube videos, and traditional television spots that are blanketing both national and local airwaves 鈥� especially in the 14 states participating in next month鈥檚 mammoth Super Tuesday vote.
And it may be working. Even as New Hampshire voters were confirming Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg as the early Democratic front-runners on Tuesday, the three-term mayor from New York vaulted to third place in national polls.
Mr. Bloomberg鈥檚 late-entry gambit has proven particularly prescient on two fronts: It presumed a collapse by former Vice President Joe Biden, whose campaign is now on the ropes after poor results in Iowa and New Hampshire. It also banked on Senator Sanders 鈥� whom聽many Democratic voters believe is too liberal to beat President Donald Trump聽鈥� emerging as an early front-runner.
Still, Mr. Bloomberg faces a number of hurdles. Critics accuse the billionaire of trying to buy the nomination, and argue the former Republican is an unlikely standard-bearer for a party that has been shifting left. His most glaring weakness may be the legacy of New York鈥檚 stop-and-frisk police tactic, which a federal judge ruled racially biased and unconstitutional near the end of his three-term tenure.听
The former mayor will not appear on ballots in the South Carolina primary later this month, in which African-American voters will have their first significant say in the race for the Democratic nomination. But his campaign believes he will emerge as a serious force on Super Tuesday, when nearly a third of the overall delegates to the convention will be awarded in a single day.听
Even if he doesn鈥檛 win the nomination, experts say the success he鈥檚 already demonstrated reveals how much presidential politics are changing.听Four years ago, another wealthy New Yorker, Donald Trump, also confounded experts as he dispensed with various traditions of presidential politics, harnessing the boundless digital worlds of social media and the wizardry of precision data and targeted online ads.听
鈥淏etween the both of them, what I think they鈥檙e doing is demonstrating the end of traditional political organizations as we know them,鈥� says Ken Sherrill, professor emeritus of political science at Hunter College in New York.
A $2 billion campaign
What makes all this possible, of course, is money.听The world鈥檚聽, Mr. Bloomberg appears ready to spend at least $2 billion of his personal fortune on this electoral strategy,聽. His paid campaign staff is already three times larger than that of Mr. Trump, five times larger than that of Mr. Biden, and twice that of Sen. Elizabeth Warren,聽.听
Last week, after the Iowa caucuses became a national punchline, the Bloomberg campaign pounced, announcing it would double its current advertising efforts, which already topped $350 million, expand the messaging to new markets, and hire more paid staff in 40 states.听 聽 聽
鈥淲hile other campaigns have been focused on Iowa and New Hampshire, our campaign has been building a massive operation in some of the biggest battleground states across the country that is unmatched and will be critical to defeating Trump in November,鈥� says Sabrina Singh, senior national spokesperson for the Bloomberg campaign. Indeed, the campaign is聽building an infrastructure and operation parallel to 鈥� and perhaps larger than 鈥� the Democratic Party鈥檚 own national organization.听
鈥淲hat鈥檚 so unprecedented is the amount of money Bloomberg can spend without needing the party,鈥� says Christina Greer,聽professor聽of political science at Fordham University in New York. 鈥淭he purpose of political parties is to give you institutional support, and when you no longer need that support, you have to wonder, what is the role of the party?鈥�
It鈥檚 all indicative of larger structural changes that have been reshaping American politics over the past decade, says Robert Boatright, professor and chair of the department of political science at Clark University. He points to the 2010 Citizens United Supreme Court ruling, which found that political spending is a form of protected speech under the Constitution, and lifted limits on spending by corporations and unions.听 聽
鈥淲hile Bloomberg鈥檚 strategy is kind of novel 鈥� skipping the first few states 鈥� the emergence of his candidacy isn鈥檛,鈥� Professor Boatright says. 鈥淭he ability of both the Democratic and Republican parties to confer the nomination in an organized way has been destroyed by the Citizens United decision and by the declining use of public funding in presidential elections.鈥澛犅�
Just a few wealthy super PAC donors were able to boost Republican candidates in 2012 and 2016 who wouldn鈥檛 have made it off the ground in previous cycles, he says.听And while most Democratic candidates have spoken out against Citizens United and eschewed the use of super PACs,聽鈥渋nstead we get people like [Tom] Steyer and Bloomberg, who are financing themselves,鈥� Professor Boatright says.
Others note that Mr. Bloomberg聽has committed to keeping his resources on the ground, even if he鈥檚 not the nominee.听鈥淪o regardless of where he ends up in the nominating process, he鈥檚 going to have an impact,鈥澛爏ays Mara Suttmann-Lea, professor of government at Connecticut College.听
Stop-and-frisk
Unlike President Trump鈥檚 made-for-TV showmanship, Mr. Bloomberg projects a kind of technocratic competence that, at least so far, has skated above the rancorous ideological conflicts now raging in American politics.听And as top-tier Democratic candidates increasingly attack one another, the former mayor has been focusing his barbs exclusively on the president, as if adapting Ronald Reagan鈥檚 famous 11th commandment to read: 鈥淭hou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Democrat.鈥澛� 聽聽
As he鈥檚 risen in the polls, however, he鈥檚 inevitably attracting more scrutiny. An聽audio recording of Mr. Bloomberg discussing the stop-and-frisk policy in聽2015, posted online this week by a supporter of Senator Sanders,聽may be a sign of what鈥檚 to come.
When he announced his candidacy in November, Mr. Bloomberg apologized for the controversial tactic, saying it was wrong. But the recording presents a stark reminder of聽his once-adamant support for stop-and-frisk.听
鈥淭he way you get the guns out of the kids鈥� hands is to throw them up against the wall and frisk them,鈥� Mr. Bloomberg聽. 鈥淢urderers and murder victims fit one M.O. ... They are male, minorities, 16-25. That鈥檚 true in New York, that鈥檚 true in virtually every city. ... You鈥檝e got to get the guns out of the hands of people that are getting killed.鈥�
It remains to be seen whether the issue will dampen what has been a remarkable surge in national polls, particularly among black voters. In just over a month, Mr. Bloomberg tripled his support nationwide, including garnering the backing of 22% of black voters according to a Quinnipiac University poll聽. Mr. Biden, the top choice of black voters for months, dropped to 27% from 52% in Quinnipiac鈥檚 previous poll.听
鈥淢y gut feeling is that black voters in 2020 will take an approach towards Bloomberg in a way similar to some white Trump voters in 2016,鈥澛爏ays Professor Greer. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not a popular thing to say or to do, it鈥檚 not popular to say, 鈥極h, I鈥檓 supporting Bloomberg,鈥� but I think some black voters are just keeping quiet.鈥�
Significantly, a number of powerful black mayors have endorsed Mr. Bloomberg. Muriel Bowser in Washington, D.C., Michael Tubbs in Stockton, California, Steve Benjamin in Columbia, South Carolina, Sylvester Turner in Houston, Texas, and Vi Lyles of Charlotte, North Carolina, have all thrown their support behind him. 鈥淚 think that he realizes the mistake of the past,鈥� San Francisco Mayor London Breed, who also endorsed Mayor Bloomberg,聽聽this week.
In an ad that began to run last week, the Bloomberg campaign invoked the legacy of President Barack Obama, showing an old clip of the popular former president praising the New York mayor.听鈥淚t鈥檚 like a dagger in the heart for the Biden campaign,鈥� says Professor Sherrill, who will be on a slate of New York City delegates supporting Mayor Buttigieg.
And while critics don鈥檛 see him聽generating the necessary enthusiasm among the Democratic base to defeat President Trump, others say Mr. Trump himself will provide enough motivation.听
鈥淭he ultimate uniter of the Republican Party in 2016 was beating Hillary Clinton,鈥� says Kent Syler, professor of political science and public policy at Middle Tennessee State University. 鈥淭he ultimate uniter of the Democrats this time will be beating Donald Trump.鈥�
Either way, Professor Greer notes that many of her students seem to be talking about Mr. Bloomberg. They鈥檝e all been exposed to a steady stream of Bloomberg campaign ads on YouTube. Indeed, her 8-year-old niece can recite a Bloomberg ad 鈥渧erbatim.鈥�
鈥淪omething is happening,鈥� she says. 鈥淗e鈥檚 resonating with people.鈥�
