海角大神

Odd-year elections in Louisiana, Kentucky and Virginia have let Democrats expand their footprint in Southern states where Republicans dominated not long ago.

Those outcomes hardly predict national 2020 results: President Donald Trump isn鈥檛 suddenly at risk of losing Louisiana because Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards got re-elected Saturday.聽

And the story wasn鈥檛 all good for Democrats: They came up short in Mississippi, where Republicans won the governorship and picked up the last remaining statewide office that had been held by a Democrat.

But there are lessons for Democrats and Republicans as the political focus shifts to presidential and congressional elections next November.

Trump era turnout is uniformly high, but Dems benefit more

Huge turnouts started with Virginia鈥檚 statewide elections in 2017 and continued through the 2018 midterms and the 2019 odd-year slate. More than 1.5 million Louisianans voted Saturday, an increase of about 385,000 votes over the 2015 governor鈥檚 race.

Edwards鈥� 40,000-vote victory margin can be attributed to his uptick of support in East Baton Rouge and Orleans Parishes 鈥� two of the most concentrated centers of the state鈥檚 black population, and home to many of the college-educated white women who have trended away from Republicans in the Trump era. Edwards got about 66,000 more votes out of those parishes Saturday than in 2015.

鈥淭he motivating factor that Trump is in the African American communities and in the suburbs among white and black women is strong,鈥� said Bob Mann, a Louisiana State University professor and former aide to many Democratic elected officials.

Mary-Patricia Wray, a political consultant for Edwards鈥� 2015 race, said the re-election campaign made a concerted outreach to local black leaders and their constituents: 鈥淚t鈥檚 maybe something that鈥檚 a very simple concept, but it鈥檚 something that Democrats got really wrong in 2016.鈥�

In Mississippi, though, Democrats had little shot in the governor鈥檚 race since nominee Jim Hood failed to generate the enthusiasm that Edwards managed in Louisiana.

The suburban shift is everywhere

Suburban New Orleans isn鈥檛 the same as suburban Philadelphia, Chicago or Los Angeles, metro areas that fueled Democrats鈥� midterm House takeover. And John Bel Edwards 鈥� an anti-abortion Catholic and gun-loving West Point graduate 鈥� wouldn鈥檛 top Democrats鈥� ticket in many states. But like more conventional Democrats elsewhere, Edwards benefited from a suburban shift.

He won Jefferson Parish, the most populous of the suburban New Orleans parishes, with nearly 60% of the vote. Still, it鈥檚 hard to measure Edwards鈥� crossover appeal. He got about 98% percent of Hillary Clinton鈥檚 Jefferson Parish vote total (73,670) against Trump. Republican Eddie Rispone managed just 54% of Trump鈥檚 100,398.

Likewise, Andy Beshear posted stark shifts over Republican incumbent Matt Bevin in Louisville suburbs and metro Lexington in winning the Kentucky governor鈥檚 race. The trend even showed up in Republicans鈥� unusually slim victory in the Mississippi governor鈥檚 race, with Democrats narrowing the usual GOP advantage outside Jackson and south of Memphis, Tennessee.

Republican states won鈥檛 flip because of the trend. But Virginia illustrates what happens when the suburbs move in a state that鈥檚 already a battleground: Democrats in January will control both the executive and legislative branches in Richmond for the first time in more than 20 years.

Republican pollster Whit Ayres noted that governor's race for both parties can buck usual partisan leanings. (Massachusetts and Maryland have popular Republican governors.) 鈥淭hat said,鈥� Ayres explained, 鈥渢he basic trends with Republicans鈥� increasing strength in rural areas and small towns and Democrats' increasing strength in urban and suburban areas is a very consistent trend, and frankly a very concerning trend if you鈥檙e a Republican.鈥�

Democrats can win talking health care

Louisiana鈥檚 Edwards and Kentucky鈥檚 Beshear avoided delving directly into the Democratic presidential primary split between progressives advocating a single-payer government insurance system (鈥淢edicare for All鈥�) and those wanting to add a government insurance plan to the Affordable Care Act exchanges (the 鈥減ublic option鈥� plan).

But they didn鈥檛 run away from health care entirely. Edwards鈥� campaigned as the governor who extended health insurance to 450,000 Louisianans by expanding Medicaid under the 2010 health care law, just as he promised upon first running in 2015. Beshear ran against a Republican incumbent, Matt Bevin, who tried to dismantle the Medicaid expansion that Beshear鈥檚 father oversaw after the Affordable Care Act passed.

Neither Democrat played up the Affordable Care Act link. But they didn鈥檛 have to. They effectively took a center-left, mainstream liberal position to expand coverage within the existing system. And voters rewarded them for it 鈥� or at least didn鈥檛 punish them.

The approach aligns them with most of the House freshmen who helped Democrats flip more than three dozen GOP-held seats in 2018 after Republicans spent eight years trying to gut the 2010 overhaul.

鈥淗ealth care is kind of the Holy Grail of politics right now,鈥� said Zac McCrary, Edwards鈥� lead pollster. 鈥淚t enthuses the Democratic base. It can persuade independents.鈥� But the way Democrats talk about it matters, McCrary said: 鈥淪trengthening, protecting, improving the ACA, that鈥檚 a much better battleground than scrapping the ACA and starting from scratch.鈥�

GOP's 'socialism' and 'radical' attacks don't always stick

Republicans tried to cast Edwards as 鈥渞adical鈥� and in the only debate, Rispone tried to make hay of Edwards鈥� support for Clinton in 2016. 鈥淭he point is when we get the next wacko, the socialist out there that we have running for president, he鈥檚 going to support that person over Donald Trump again,鈥� Rispone said.

But Edwards withstood the attacks 鈥� including ads and mail pieces trying to associate him with national Democrats unpopular in Louisiana. He touted his own brand as a former Army Ranger, family man, devout Catholic, avid outdoorsman.

"You're not talking about me. You're talking about some generic Democrat that's in your mind,鈥� he shot back at Rispone.

But, pollster McCrary said, Edwards didn鈥檛 run from being a Democrat. 鈥淗e ran TV adds talking about schools and education, and not a single one talking about abortion or guns,鈥� McCrary said. 鈥淰oters were comfortable with who he is, and they listened to him when he focused on Democratic issues that resonate with voters everywhere, even in the Deep South.鈥�

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Barrow reported from Atlanta.