All politics is national? Kentucky governor鈥檚 race provides a test.
| Independence, Ky.
Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin has been called President Donald Trump鈥檚 鈥淢ini-Me.鈥澛�
A former businessman holding elective office for the first time, the Republican governor is an enthusiastic Twitter user who has refused to release his tax returns. He hates the 鈥渇ake news鈥� media and has repeatedly come under fire for controversial statements.聽
So it鈥檚 no surprise that in his fight for reelection, Governor Bevin is聽clinging tightly to the president 鈥� praising him on the trail, featuring him in commercials, and closing his campaign Monday evening with a rally headlined by President Trump himself in Lexington.
Why We Wrote This
Off-year elections often receive scrutiny for what they suggest about the upcoming cycle. In Kentucky, the incumbent鈥檚 focus on impeachment has drawn attention 鈥� but may be offset by local concerns.
Three states will elect governors this year, including Mississippi and Louisiana. But pundits and political analysts have focused primarily on Kentucky, where Mr. Bevin has tried to frame his reelection bid as a referendum on Mr. Trump 鈥� and specifically on the impeachment inquiry unfolding in Washington. As such, the race is seen by many as a possible foreshadowing, a signal one year out of what鈥檚 to come in 2020.
Yet in northern Kentucky, where the race is expected to be particularly close, many voters聽shake their heads at this hypothesis. To them, this is just another example of Beltway types making broad assumptions about their political calculations, which are actually more nuanced.聽
鈥淏ecause we have off-year gubernatorial elections, almost every presidential election they鈥檒l look to Kentucky to see if it鈥檚 a barometer of what鈥檚 to come,鈥� says James Larry Hood, a former adjunct history professor at the University of Kentucky. 鈥淚t鈥檚 never as simple as that.鈥澛�
Attorney General Andy Beshear, the Democratic candidate, whose father was Mr. Bevin鈥檚 predecessor (and whom Mr. Bevin has given the Trumpian nickname 鈥淟il鈥� Andy鈥�), held a lead in the polls for months, at one point by聽. Evidence, Democrats say, of voters鈥� frustrations with Mr. Bevin鈥檚 鈥� and Mr. Trump鈥檚 鈥� caustic leadership style.
But the polls have tightened dramatically in recent weeks. An independent survey in mid-October showed Mr. Bevin and Mr. Beshear exactly tied,聽. Evidence, Republicans say, of voters鈥� unhappiness with the Democrats鈥� impeachment inquiry into the president.聽
Some voters in northern Kentucky do say they support Mr. Bevin because he has been such a staunch defender of the president. But others 鈥� including many who proudly support Mr. Trump 鈥� say they dislike the governor because of his record in office, from which the commander in chief can鈥檛 save him.
鈥淭hey both have that abrasive, egotistical attitude 鈥� but the difference is action,鈥� says Virgil Clem, who works in finance in Independence, Kentucky, and is shopping for a new headlight for his daughter鈥檚 car at a Walmart in Fort Wright. 鈥淚 can鈥檛 name three things Bevin has done for the state, but I can name a billion things Trump has done for our country.鈥澛�
National vs. local concerns聽
Although Mr. Clem is a registered Republican, he says he鈥檚 doing some research on Mr. Beshear. Still, he doesn鈥檛 think he can bring himself to vote for a Democrat, and says he鈥檒l probably just write in a candidate on Tuesday.
鈥淚 wouldn鈥檛 vote for Bevin if he was the last guy on the planet,鈥� he says. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 feel like he has the state鈥檚 best interests in mind.鈥�
Mr. Bevin, a product of the tea party movement who once mounted an unsuccessful primary challenge against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, has achieved a number of GOP priorities since taking office, including new abortion restrictions and a right-to-work law. But many voters, including Republicans, criticize the governor for disparaging comments he made about teachers and other public servants.聽
In April 2018, Mr. Bevin signed a bill altering Kentucky鈥檚 public employee pension system, which is Teachers protested by calling in sick, which Mr. Bevin called 鈥渞emarkably selfish and shortsighted,鈥� and evidence of a Eventually the legislation was overturned , but the back-and-forth on the issue has continued. Earlier this year, Mr. Bevin blamed several tragedies on the teachers strike, including the聽.
Kentuckians say they have a particular allegiance to teachers 鈥� in such a rural state, everyone knows their town鈥檚 educators, and public education is聽. In that sense, Mr. Bevin may have picked the wrong industry to fight with. This fall, Morning Consult ranked Mr. Bevin as the country鈥檚 , with an approval rating of 36%.聽
In response to this backlash, in a state Mr. Trump won with , it鈥檚 not surprising that Mr. Bevin has shaped his reelection as a test of loyalty to the president. In debates, as well as , Mr. Bevin has urged Mr. Beshear to voice his opinion on impeachment 鈥� a call Mr. Beshear has resisted.
鈥淭his race isn鈥檛 about the White House,鈥� Mr. Beshear insisted聽. 鈥淚t鈥檚 about what鈥檚 going on in your 丑辞耻蝉别.鈥�
That鈥檚 a sentiment echoed by many voters here, who point out that governors have little to do with what鈥檚 going on in Washington, and say they want solutions on local issues. The fifth and final gubernatorial debate at Northern Kentucky University last week featured questions about replacing the Brent Spence Bridge that connects Covington, Kentucky, to Cincinnati, Ohio; gambling; and the region鈥檚 drug epidemic. Impeachment did not come up.
A smattering of lawn signs
For all the national interest in the race, plenty of voters聽say they don鈥檛 have an opinion about the governor鈥檚 race.聽Some say they鈥檒l vote Republican or Democratic because they always do.聽Some look surprised to hear there is an election Tuesday. Driving across northern Kentucky, real estate and anti-abortion lawn signs vastly outnumber signs for Mr. Bevin or Mr. Beshear.
Pumping gas at a United Dairy Farmers convenience store, Donna Collins, a nurse from Alexandria, Kentucky, says she hasn鈥檛 thought much about the race.聽鈥淧eople are looking at Bevin badly because of the whole teacher thing,鈥� she says. Still, she thinks he might win, because 鈥減eople go with what they hear, and we鈥檝e been hearing his name a lot.鈥�
Abby Marsh waits to enter the debate on her Northern Kentucky University campus in a bright yellow T-shirt she made the previous weekend that reads, 鈥淎nyone but Bevin.鈥� A middle grades education pre-major from Georgetown, Kentucky, Ms. Marsh says she has participated in teacher protests against the governor over the past two years. She doesn鈥檛 think Mr. Bevin will be reelected Tuesday.聽
鈥淚 have so much family who are Republicans, like my parents,鈥� says Ms. Marsh. 鈥淎nd they can鈥檛 stand him.鈥�
She says her parents plan to attend Mr. Trump鈥檚 rally on Monday evening because they love Mr. Trump, not because they support Mr. Bevin.
Based on the governor鈥檚 two primary elections, he is not Kentucky Republicans鈥� overwhelming first choice for the job. In 2015, Mr. Bevin won the GOP nomination by only 83 votes. This year, the incumbent governor faced a competitive primary, in which state Rep. Robert Goforth won almost 40% of the vote.聽
William Woods, a northern Kentucky native and licensed聽real estate agent who came in in this year鈥檚 Republican primary, recently endorsed the Democratic candidate, Mr. Beshear.聽聽
鈥淭his endorsement is not political,鈥� says Mr. Woods, outside the debate hall at Northern Kentucky University. 鈥淚t鈥檚 about honesty and transparency.鈥�
Just then, Mr. Bevin emerges from a black SUV and begins shaking hands with a small group of 10 or so supporters, one of whom is wearing a MAGA hat. 鈥淔our more years,鈥� they chant.聽
鈥淭his election is not about the president or the White House,鈥� says Mr. Woods. 鈥淭he only connection I see is that Bevin could not win without Trump.鈥澛�
Note: An earlier version of this story misstated the date of Louisiana's gubernatorial election. It is November 16th.聽
