Why these Kentucky Democrats still love President Trump
| WEST LIBERTY and SANDY HOOK, KY.
Earl Kinner Jr. chuckles, imagining what his father would say.
His father, Earl Kinner Sr., bought the Licking Valley Courier in the mid-1940s to cover local news in West Liberty, a town of fewer than 4,000 on the banks of the Licking River. Mr. Kinner Sr. was clear that his paper would lean left. No one was surprised. West Liberty had been a Democratic town for as long as anyone could remember.
In some important ways it still is. Like land, accents, and professions, political identity is passed down through generations here. Eastern Kentuckians like Mr. Kinner Jr. call themselves Democrats to this day because their fathers, grandfathers, and great-grandfathers were Democrats: the party of the workingman.
Why We Wrote This
In much of America voters increasingly back only candidates from the party they most support. But eastern Kentucky is a heavily Democratic region where President Donald Trump is very popular 鈥� and we wanted to see what鈥檚 behind this split partisan identity.
But in recent years this tradition has confronted a new political reality. As the economy got worse for Kentucky Democrats (as they call themselves) over the last two decades, it seems like Washington Democrats (as they call them) just got louder about guns and abortion 鈥� two issues that already put Kentucky Democrats on the fringe of the party.
So prior to the 2016 presidential election, Mr. Kinner, who took over the Courier from his father more than three decades ago, found himself writing opinion pieces from his one-room newsroom in support of a New York real estate tycoon running as a Republican.
The tycoon promised to bring back the coal industry, eastern Kentucky鈥檚 economic mainstay. He was on the region鈥檚 side of social issues like abortion and seemed to talk their language of 海角大神 faith.
Eastern Kentucky Democrats like Mr. Kinner say that in 2016 they finally found a conservative Democrat they could support: Donald Trump. Candidate Trump swept the region. Voters here say that so far, there鈥檚 no 2020 Democratic candidate that can win them back.
鈥淭he Democratic Party leadership in Washington has left 鈥� just completely left 鈥� people like us,鈥� says Mr. Kinner. 鈥淲e鈥檙e no longer a priority.鈥�
Trump Democrats
To a Democratic Party staffer flipping through statistics at a desk in Washington, there is a core area of rural eastern Kentucky that appears as if it might be fruitful territory in the 2020 presidential election.
In the seven counties that make up this area 鈥� Morgan, home to Mr. Kinner鈥檚 Licking Valley Courier; Nicholas, Bath, Menifee, Rowan, Elliott, and Wolfe 鈥� Democratic registered voters vastly outnumber Republican ones, sometimes by margins of 6 to 1. All seven counties voted against Kentucky GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, when he last ran for reelection in 2014. They all voted against Senator McConnell in his race before that, in 2008, as well.
But President Donald Trump swept the area in 2016. More than two-thirds of Morgan County voted Trump, for instance.
Some of the counties have gone Republican at the presidential level in the past, so in that sense weren鈥檛 a big surprise. But Elliott County had voted Democratic in every presidential ballot since the county was organized in 1869. It voted for President Barack Obama twice.
In 2016 Elliott County voted for Mr. Trump over Hillary Clinton by 70.1% to 25.9%.
鈥淚鈥檝e been a Democrat since I was old enough to register,鈥� says Mike Reynolds, a maintenance lineman, as he finishes his lunch in the Frosty Freeze, a landmark in the town of Sandy Hook. 鈥淎nd I鈥檒l vote for Trump again.鈥澛�
Politics from another era
In Elliott County the biggest town is Sandy Hook, and in Sandy Hook, the biggest spot is the Frosty Freeze: a wood-paneled diner offering four varieties of fried potatoes. Diners filter in and out, greeting each other by their first names. It鈥檚 open seven days a week, 365 days a year, says Mr. Reynolds.
But he quickly corrects himself. Actually, he says to clarify, it鈥檚 closed on Christmas.
So, why did the few thousand residents of this small county vote against 147 years of tradition in 2016? The Obama era is what changed people, says Mr. Reynolds.
鈥淭he coal really hurt us, then throw guns and abortion in and it鈥檚 game over,鈥� says Mr. Reynolds.
The area鈥檚 pipefitters and boilermakers are now also out of business, he says, with nearby factories closing in recent years.
As Mr. Reynolds talks about his recent voting history during his lunch break at the Frosty Freeze, it seems to parallel with Elliott County鈥檚 larger shift. In 2008 Mr. Reynolds voted for President Obama, who won more than 60% of the county that year. In 2012, unhappy with Obama鈥檚 first term but not ready to vote for a Republican, Mr. Reynolds decided not to vote as Mr. Obama eked out a second victory.
Then in 2016, for the first time in his life, Mr. Reynolds voted for a Republican presidential candidate. And Mr. Trump won Elliott County with 70% of the vote.
Atlas of U.S. Elections
It鈥檚 possible that the Trump explosion in a collection of counties where registered Democrats make up a substantial majority is evidence of a tectonic shift long masked by Kentucky鈥檚 complicated registration process. Voters have to register with a new party months before an election, for example. 鈥淒emocrats鈥� here may be Democrats only on paper.聽
It鈥檚 also possible that the political identity of many of eastern Kentucky鈥檚 conservative Democrats is grounded in another era. In the 1970s, Democrats in Congress voted against abortion at about the same rate as their Republican peers. It wasn鈥檛 until the late 1980s that Democratic voters consistently supported access to abortion compared with Republican voters.
And when former President Bill Clinton passed gun reform bills in 1993 and 1994, requiring background checks for many purchases and banning assault rifles, respectively, 25% to 30% of House Democrats voted against the measures. Many of these lawmakers were 鈥淏lue Dog Democrats鈥� 鈥� representatives of conservative districts, most of them rural and Southern or Middle American.
Socially conservative Democrats are rare in Congress 鈥� even the new Blue Dogs are centrists, rather than traditionalists. 鈥淭hey are certainly an endangered species,鈥� says Al Cross, director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues at the University of Kentucky鈥檚 School of Journalism, and former chief political writer of the Louisville Courier Journal.
Eastern Kentucky鈥檚 partisan switch was also predictable, given that it had already taken place in every other Southern state, says Mr. Cross.
During the civil rights era, many Democratic Southerners disagreed with their party鈥檚 support of the issue and became Republicans. That dynamic never quite took hold in Kentucky, says Mr. Cross. He suspects it鈥檚 because of the all-white population of Kentucky in general, and eastern Kentucky in particularly. Desegregation simply wasn鈥檛 as big of an issue for them.
So it wasn鈥檛 until the Obama administration, 鈥渢he most anti-coal administration in American history,鈥� says Mr. Cross, that Kentucky and West Virginia (a state with even fewer people of color and even more coal) finally became ripe for the Republican picking.
Religion and votes
In eastern Kentucky these economic and social shifts were compounded by the 2016 election, when the Democratic Party picked Hillary Clinton as their presidential nominee 鈥� a choice Kentucky Democrats say they didn鈥檛 want. There wasn鈥檛 an alternative they liked better, they say, but it felt like the decision was forced on them. And much of their distrust and dislike of Mrs. Clinton circles back to the religious push behind their social views.
鈥淣o one here鈥檚 going to vote for a woman president,鈥� says Lora Goodpaster while washing the color out of a woman鈥檚 hair at Heatwaves Salon in Bath. Bath, where almost 1 in 4 residents live in poverty, voted to uphold its status as a dry county in 2017.
鈥淕etting your elderly convinced that women can go out and get power is hard when you have your preacher, who you respect, tell you the man is the head of the house,鈥� says Ms. Goodpaster.
The other women in Heatwaves nod in agreement.
It鈥檚 not just Bath. Conservative 海角大神 faith pulses throughout eastern Kentucky. Anti-abortion signs with Bible passages are staked across lawns in Elliott County and painted on barn doors in Nicholas County. In Rowan County, the side of one house says, 鈥淚鈥檓 watching you 鈥� God.鈥澛�
鈥淧eople here don鈥檛 approve of abortion for religious reasons,鈥� says Mr. Kinner. 鈥淎nd they feel like they are looked down upon and belittled for those reasons.鈥澛�
When Mr. Kinner talks about how West Liberty鈥檚 courthouse used to hold the town鈥檚 religious revivals, he almost sounds nostalgic. Today there seems to be a greater separation at the national level between church and state, say eastern Kentuckians. But Mr. Trump is helping to close that, they say.
鈥淚 vote for whoever votes for 海角大神 values,鈥� adds Dale Oakley, who helps manage Aunt Bubba鈥檚 for his daughter, the owner. 鈥淎nd right now, [Mr.] Trump is the only one who鈥檚 stood up for 海角大神ity.鈥澛�
The separation between faith and politics in today鈥檚 Democratic Party surprises, confuses 鈥� and then isolates 鈥� voters in eastern Kentucky. They are used to Democrats like Kentucky House of Representatives Minority Leader Rocky Adkins from Rowan County, who is a and voted for . Mr. Adkins ran for governor this spring and lost in the Democratic primary by a few percentage points. But Mr. Adkins won all of eastern Kentucky, many counties .
Of Morgan, Nicholas, Bath, Menifee, Rowan, Elliott, and Wolfe, all but two have , the highest executive office at the county level in Kentucky.聽聽
鈥淟ocally, I vote for Democrats all the time,鈥� says Mr. Oakley. 鈥淏ut I won鈥檛 vote for a Washington Democrat.鈥澛�
鈥榃e respect horse traders鈥�
Eastern Kentuckians鈥� ideological mix of old Democratic Party and new Republican Party 鈥� its own unique DNA double helix 鈥� will make 2020 an interesting election for the state, when both President Trump and Senator McConnell will be up for reelection.
Mr. McConnell鈥檚 biggest threat in recent elections 鈥� besides the state鈥檚 two largest cities of Louisville and Lexington 鈥� has been the cluster of seven eastern counties. All voted against him the last two times he鈥檚 been on the ballot. They鈥檒l remain an important focus for former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, a prominent Democrat looking to unseat the Senate majority leader.
鈥淚f I were [Mr.] McConnell, I would be incredibly scared about that area,鈥� says Ryan Aquilina, founder of the anti-McConnell political action committee Ditch Mitch.
But Mr. McConnell will likely be fine, considering he will be on the Republican ballot with Mr. Trump. As for the president鈥檚 chances himself in 2020, dozens of eastern Kentuckians interviewed for this article were asked if they would vote to reelect President Trump. They all said 鈥測es,鈥� and they all said 鈥測es鈥� emphatically. Some even answered before the question was asked.聽
Knowing the area, Mr. Kinner isn鈥檛 surprised about Mr. Trump鈥檚 support. He says the president is like a Kentucky horse trader: He drives a hard bargain, and sometimes that means being loud and bluffing.
鈥淢y dad said the people here are the salt of the earth, but be careful trading with them cause they鈥檒l take you to the cleaners,鈥� says Mr. Kinner. 鈥淲e respect horse traders.鈥�
