Big day of primaries points to a nail-biter in the fall
| Washington and Sacramento, Calif.
After the biggest primary day of the US midterm election season, both parties have reason to be hopeful. But barring some game-changing development, control of Congress聽is shaping up to be a cliffhanger.
Heading into Tuesday鈥檚聽eight primaries, including in all-important California, momentum appeared to be shifting slightly in favor of Republicans, bolstered by a strong economy and President Trump鈥檚 messaging.
Those influences were clearly a force at the ballot box. In California, for instance, Republican businessman John Cox advanced to face liberal frontrunner Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom in the race for governor in the fall. That was not a given in this heavily Democratic state, which promotes the top two primary vote-getters, regardless of party.
Why We Wrote This
Instead of a "blue wave," Tuesday鈥檚 primaries presented a picture of competing crosscurrents: Republicans buoyed by positive economic news, while Democrats seem to have greater enthusiasm on their side.
The president鈥檚 endorsement of Mr. Cox, who pumped $5 million of his own money into his campaign, apparently helped bring out voters. Now that Cox will be on the November ballot, that could help boost Republican turnout for endangered House seats in the general election. It also spared Republicans from the spectacle of an all-Democratic general election for governor in the country鈥檚 most populous state. The strong performance of GOP Rep.聽David Valadao, in a California district that Hillary Clinton won by 15 points, also buoyed Republicans.
But聽Tuesday聽was a good day for Democrats, too. In California, they had worried about being shut out of key House races. It looks like that didn鈥檛 happen (though final results could be days away). Democratic voters鈥� determination to 鈥渞esist鈥� Mr. Trump and retake the House was evident particularly in New Jersey, where voters backed all three candidates favored by the national party, including a pro-gun, conservative Democrat, Jeff Van Drew.
鈥淒emocrats had a good night,鈥� says Kyle Kondik,聽managing editor of Sabato鈥檚 Crystal Ball, which handicaps elections at the University of Virginia. But 鈥淚鈥檓 still at 50-50,鈥� he says, about whether a 鈥渂lue wave鈥� will hand Democrats the House in November. 鈥淪howing any sense of certainty about which way the House is going to go is premature.鈥�
Open seats and enthusiasm
One thing Democrats have going for them is a massive number of open seats 鈥� 60 districts with no incumbent running. Some of those are in California and New Jersey, where Democrats hope to flip a total of 10 seats. If they succeed, that would cover a lot of ground on the road to the 23 seats they need to win back the House.
Another thing Democrats have going for them is enthusiasm.
鈥淚 am bullish about our chances in November,鈥� Rep. Steny Hoyer (D) of Maryland, the No. 2 in the House Democratic leadership, told reporters聽Tuesday. 鈥淎ll over the country I know there鈥檚 great enthusiasm, there鈥檚 great optimism, there鈥檚 great energy.鈥�
Sacramento voter Dan Janos, a professor of film production at California State University, Sacramento, biked to a vote center near his home to drop off his completed ballot聽Tuesday聽afternoon. The longtime Democrat was less concerned with any particular race or issue than the looming presence of Trump.
鈥淚t鈥檚 more important to vote than ever because we鈥檙e so incredibly divided,鈥� said Mr. Janos, who lived in San Francisco during Lieutenant Governor Newsom鈥檚 time as mayor there and voted for him聽Tuesday. 鈥淢aybe 2016 will be the motivation for people to get out and vote instead of sitting back and watching.鈥�
But turnout in California, though it exceeded the 2014 primaries, was lower than Democrats had hoped.
David Mermin, a Democratic pollster based in Berkeley, predicts that the relative clarity of the general election will draw more voters to the polls in November. Tuesday鈥檚 primary was a noisy, confusing affair with a very crowded field of Democratic candidates to choose from 鈥� a crowding that caused party leaders to worry they might split their vote and not make it into the first or second spot in targeted districts.聽
鈥淭he 鈥榯op two鈥� primary is strange. It鈥檚 not about issues; it鈥檚 about who鈥檚 spending money to take out other candidates,鈥� Mr. Mermin says. 鈥淭he energy and anger over Trump didn鈥檛 necessarily translate as we thought it might, but that doesn鈥檛 portend it won鈥檛 happen in November.鈥澛�
Other Democratic strategists are more concerned about November.
鈥淚鈥檓 worried,鈥� writes Democratic pollster Celinda Lake in an email. 鈥淲e need an economic message.鈥�
It's the economy, stupid
Indeed, economic indicators appear to be putting a wind at Republicans鈥� backs. The jobless rate in May dropped to 3.8 percent, the lowest since April 2000. For the first time since record-keeping began, there are more job openings than Americans looking for work, reports The Wall Street Journal.
The number of Americans who say the country is on the 鈥渞ight track鈥� has increased to 39 percent, according to the Real Clear Politics average.聽Meanwhile, the president鈥檚 job-approval rating, after hitting an average low of 37 percent in December, has climbed up to 44 percent.
To bring home their economic message, Republicans are touting their new tax-cut law, attributing to it not only middle-class tax relief, but also wage increases and job growth. But while the overall news is positive, not all voters are feeling it yet, cautions Republican pollster David Winston.
Mr. Winston鈥檚 surveys show that more than half the country says it is living 鈥減aycheck-to-paycheck鈥� and a third of the country is $400 away from a major financial crisis. 鈥淧eople are treading water, they鈥檙e exhausted, they鈥檙e looking to break out of this cycle, so economic news matters.鈥�
Voters need to feel an improved economic situation in their own lives, not just hear about it in the news, he says. Right now, they鈥檙e just beginning to assess their own situation, including the effect of the tax cut. 鈥淚s economic change being delivered? If yes, that鈥檚 good for Republicans. If no, that鈥檚 really challenging.鈥�
Americans may be feeling more hopeful about the future, and even experiencing wage growth, but other costs 鈥� like gasoline and healthcare 鈥� are increasing, points out longtime congressional observer Norman Ornstein, of the American Enterprise Institute. 鈥淎t best, they鈥檙e on a treadmill.鈥�
Given this landscape, Trump鈥檚 role in ginning up his base 鈥� particularly white, male voters 鈥� is an important factor, Mr. Ornstein adds. 鈥淭rump鈥檚 direct effort to rile up that base, and make it about him, 鈥榊ou can鈥檛 let those evil people win,鈥� that could limit the damage for Republicans.鈥�
The Alabama primary on Tuesday shows just how much Trump has come to dominate his party. Instead of easily cruising to victory in a deep red state, Republican incumbent Rep. Martha Roby will be heading to a July run-off against an ex-Democrat,聽former Rep. Bobby Bright. One of the biggest issues in the primary was loyalty to Trump. The congresswoman had vowed not to vote for Trump during the 2016 presidential campaign after the infamous Access Hollywood tape surfaced, urging him instead to drop out.
Tuesday鈥檚聽primaries also sorted out a few key questions in the Senate: Longtime Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California is likely safe in her seat, having crushed her competitors 鈥� including from the liberal left. But the luster has faded from two-term New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez, who, after surviving a corruption trial last year, garnered a lackluster 62 percent of the vote against a聽challenger with no name recognition or reported funds. And Montana鈥檚 Republican state auditor Matthew Rosendale will challenge endangered Democrat Sen. Jon Tester in that red state.
Trump has been vowing to defeat Senator Tester for leading the charge against his failed Veterans Affairs nominee.
