Do 13 true-or-false questions predict a Trump victory?
A professor who has accurately predicted the winner in each of the past eight presidential elections announced that his model points to a victory this November for Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Instead of relying on the latest voter polls, Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, answers 13 true-or-false questions, which he calls 鈥淭he Keys to the White House.鈥� The questions are written to gauge the performance of the current president鈥檚 political party.
If fewer than six answers return false, then the ruling party hangs on for another four years, according to the model. If six answers or more are false, as is the case this year, then the challenging party will win.
鈥淪o very, very narrowly, the keys ,鈥� Dr. Lichtman told The Washington Post.
The model was first used to predict President Ronald Reagan would win his bid for reelection in 1984. By design, it applies retrospectively for every prior election dating back to Abraham Lincoln鈥檚 victory in 1860.
But this could be the year that breaks his model, Lichtman said, citing the unprecedented nature of Mr. Trump鈥檚 campaign.
鈥淲e鈥檝e never before seen a candidate who鈥檚 spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others,鈥� Lichtman said, describing Trump as 鈥渁 serial fabricator.鈥� Trump鈥檚 numerous shocking deeds include inviting a foreign power to interfere in American elections and twice inciting violence against an opponent, Lichtman added.
鈥淕iven all of these exceptions that Donald Trump represents, he may well shatter patterns of history that have held for more than 150 years, lose this election even if the historical circumstances favor it,鈥� Lichtman told the Post.
Trump鈥檚 departure from historical norms was well-known during the primaries, when fellow Republicans urged him to behave in a more 鈥減residential鈥� fashion, as 海角大神鈥檚 Linda Feldmann reported in March. 聽
Looking all the way back to the founding of the United States, experts see no one quite like Trump 鈥� not even in notoriously brash seventh President Andrew Jackson.
Cal Jillson, a presidential scholar at Southern Methodist University, said Mr. Jackson had 鈥渁 very individualistic personal style鈥� but saw himself as 鈥渇irst among equals.鈥�
鈥淭rump is different,鈥� Dr. Jillson told the Monitor. 鈥淗e does not see himself as first among equals, he sees himself as a savior of sorts, as a singular individual.鈥�
Five of the factors underpinning Lichtman鈥檚 prediction of a Democratic loss, however, have nothing to do with Mrs. Clinton鈥檚 challengers. The loss prediction comes from poor Democratic performance in the midterm election, President Barack Obama's inability to run again, the lack of any major policy change in Mr. Obama鈥檚 second term, the absence of major foreign policy successes, and Clinton's lack of charismatic appeal.
The sixth factor working against the Democrats is Libertarian presidential candidate, Gary Johnson.
鈥淥ne of my keys,鈥� Lichtman explained, 鈥渨ould be that the party in power gets a 鈥榝alse鈥� if a third-party candidate is anticipated to get 5 percent of the vote or more.鈥�
ahead of Monday鈥檚 presidential debate, the first of the general election, according to Washington Post-ABC News poll numbers published Sunday. Among registered voters, Clinton and Trump are tied at 41 percent, with Mr. Johnson at 7 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent.
Among likely voters, Clinton is favored by 46 percent, while 44 percent back Trump, 5 percent support Johnson, and 1 percent are for Dr. Stein.
Americans are open to the idea of voting for a third-party candidate, and this year鈥檚 election more than any recent race, 鈥�,鈥� Ian Tuttle wrote last month for the National Review, a conservative news and commentary publication that opposes Trump.
鈥淢ost Republicans cannot stomach the idea of a Clinton presidency. Most Democrats cannot stomach the idea of a President Trump. Either would be 鈥榯he end of America as we know it,鈥欌�� Mr. Tuttle, the Thomas L. Rhodes Fellow at the National Review Institute, wrote. Neither Johnson nor Stein had a chance, he noted.
鈥淭he loathsomeness of the candidate on one side helped fuel the support of a loathsome candidate on the other side, and box out any serious third-party alternative,鈥� Tuttle wrote.
Then there鈥檚 the lingering claim that Trump will see a bump on Election Day unanticipated by the polls because some of his supporters are , as the candidate himself said in June. Politico reported there was no evidence during the primaries that such closeted Trump supporters exist.
