海角大神

Presidential candidate Donald Trump carefully waded into the experience of black Americans as he visited with a mourning family in Philadelphia聽on Friday聽and addressed a black church congregation in Detroit聽on Saturday.

The visit Saturday to Great Faith Ministries International included a congregational greeting and an interview with the pastor, which was filmed and will be rebroadcast, after being edited by his campaign, a week later on the Impact channel.

"I want to help you build and rebuild Detroit," Trump said Saturday. "I fully understand that the African-American community has suffered from discrimination and there are many wrongs that should be made right."

The visit聽Friday聽to Philadelphia included meeting with an African-American mom whose daughter was murdered by a group of men that included two undocumented immigrants. Mr. Trump has said his call to crack down on illegal immigration can transcend racial lines.

After mostly reaching out to the black community in front of white audiences, Trump now gingerly steps into the actual places where black Americans live, work, and worship. It's a message, analysts say, is designed to downplay associations with the white nationalist 鈥渁lt-right鈥� online community, erase his questioning of President Obama鈥檚 citizenship, and counter statements by a former adviser that Trump had stayed out of black neighborhoods because they were dangerous. And there is some evidence the approach is working.

Still, Trump鈥檚 challenge to capture black voters remains profound, especially late in a campaign where his opponent, Hillary Clinton, has shown a profound rapport with the most critical portion of the black vote: African-American women.

鈥淥ne of the points of contention that Donald Trump is going to have to sort out one way or another is a new poll that shows 90 percent of black voters believe that Donald Trump is either racist or bigoted, or opens the door for racism or bigotry,鈥� says Leah Wright Rigueur, a public policy professor at Harvard University and author of 鈥淭he Loneliness of the Black Republican.鈥� 鈥淭hat鈥檚 a terrible number. Black voters will not support a candidate who they believe encourages racism, even though [the candidate himself] may not be racist.鈥�

But Trump, who is struggling in several battleground states, needs African-American voters, who are becoming increasingly influential in US politics. Indeed, in swing states such as Pennsylvania, the black vote could make or break either of the two major party candidates.聽

In 1980, Ronald Reagan claimed 14 percent of the black vote in his landslide victory over Jimmy Carter. John McCain managed only 4 percent in 2008. Current polls have black support for Trump ranging from 1 percent to 20 percent.

鈥淏y the way, my support is now up to 8 percent and climbing,鈥� Trump聽is expected to say聽Saturday, .

Though his tendency to speak about black people as a monolith has been offensive to some African-Americans, Trump doesn鈥檛 seem to have any personal problems with blacks. He has counted Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, Jay-Z as friends and confidantes. His name has been invoked, mostly positively, in dozens of hip hop songs.

And in withering critiques of Trump acting as loudspeaker for white nationalist groups, Hillary Clinton stopped short of calling him a racist.

But Trump鈥檚 decision to launch his political career by questioning Obama鈥檚 citizenship and his dismissive, even confrontational, attitude toward Black Lives Matter protesters, has fractured such bonds to the point where, in some states, only 1 in 100 black voters plan to vote Trump.聽A recent preferring white nationalist and US Senate candidate David Duke over Trump.

To be sure, many African-Americans have also expressed doubts about Hillary Clinton鈥檚 legacy with black voters, including her use of the racially-charged term 鈥渟uper predator鈥� to describe urban criminals in the 1990s. (She has since apologized.)

Yet Mrs. Clinton鈥檚 appeal among black voters is significant. For one, her candidacy is a bulwark against anyone tarnishing Obama鈥檚 legacy. But she has also shown, as 海角大神 Monitor noted in April, that black churches are her 鈥渉appy place.鈥�

During a visit to Grace Baptist Church in Mount Vernon, N.Y., this spring, Clinton beamed as she spoke: 鈥淏eing here at this church with these beautiful people, knowing how grateful I am for this spring day 鈥� I feel blessed and grace is all around us.鈥�

Will Trump achieve that kind of ease in largely African-American settings? Time will tell. But part of Trump鈥檚 message聽on Saturday聽鈥� that 鈥渨e must reduce, rather than highlight, issues of race in this country鈥� 鈥� may not resonate in a campaign season where many black Americans feel despair over hard emerging evidence of unequal treatment by institutions such as the criminal justice system.

The Republican National Committee helped Trump鈥檚 campaign craft the script for聽Saturday鈥檚聽videotaped exchange in Detroit, an acknowledgement that missteps on racial questions by Trump could hurt the party long-term. 鈥�

鈥淲ith the black vote potentially playing a crucial role in putting traditionally red states like Georgia in play while pushing potentially winnable blue states like Pennsylvania further out of reach, it perhaps makes sense that Trump would attempt some damage control, even if his message is aimed more at reassuring his own base of moderate white voters 鈥�,鈥� .

On the other hand, there鈥檚 some evidence that Trump may be making some inroads with black voters,

In one Florida poll, Trump鈥檚 message showed some strength, earning 20 percent of support among black voters. The pollster told the Monitor, however, that that number is likely an outlier: 鈥淚 think the number of African-Americans in our poll wasn鈥檛 large enough to make a really good probability sample out of it,鈥� says Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political science professor who conducted the poll.

And according to Ms. Wright Rigueur at Harvard, Trump as an individual and Republicans as a party do have unique opportunities to make inroads with black voters. Middle-aged black men, especially in states such as Georgia and Florida, have shown willingness to vote Republican, suggesting not only demographic but geographic opportunities for the party. Former GOP presidential candidate and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, for example, earned 26 percent of the black vote in his last reelection, largely by touting school reform.

Moreover, by some measures, black Americans have struggled more than whites to shake off the Great Recession. And Trump鈥檚 economic message 鈥� that the Democratic Party has failed to protect the working鈥揷lass 鈥� resonates among some in the black community, as has Trump鈥檚 focus on breaking down the political status quo.

鈥淭he proof, as they say, will be in the pudding,鈥� Trump was advised to say聽on Saturday. 鈥淐oming into a community is meaningless unless we offer an alternative to the horrible progressive agenda that has perpetuated a permanent underclass in America.鈥�

In part, Trump鈥檚 brand of outreach is building on Reagan鈥檚 meme that 鈥淏lacks understand leadership.鈥� But political scientists say that Reagan bolstered that message by doing a lot of outreach to black audiences.

鈥淚 think everyone knows that Ronald Reagan had a long history of toeing the line with coded rhetoric: welfare queens, dog whistles, the Neshoba County Fair,鈥� says Wright Rigueur. 鈥淏ut what鈥檚 far less known is how Ronald Reagan, going back to the mid-1960s, does outreach, or tries to do outreach, without changing his message, sometimes with disastrous results. But he learns from his mistakes and by the 1980 election he has a staff of black Republican consultants from Atlanta who basically advise him how to talk to black people in order to win over white suburban ticket-splitters.鈥�

On Saturday morning in Detroit, Trump called African-Americans "God's greatest gift to our nation," and told them he was "here to listen."

The concern for Trump and the GOP more broadly is, as Wright Rigueur points out, that it鈥檚 鈥渢oo little, too late.