海角大神

This week, the popular mass e-mail that helps people build their vocabularies 鈥� 鈥溾�� 鈥� featured a word that has been used to describe Donald Trump. It鈥檚 鈥渃lairaudience鈥� and it means 鈥渢he supposed ability to hear what is inaudible.鈥�

Rolling Stone writer Paul Solotaroff the GOP presidential frontrunner as clairaudient 鈥� able to see into and hear the hearts of 鈥渄isaffected underemployed white people鈥� from his office on the 26th聽floor of Trump Tower, and to read their rage back to them 鈥渨ord for word, in ways that no Republican has ever done before.鈥�

But the past two weeks suggest that clairaudience has its limits.

Losing Wisconsin by 13 points is the latest evidence that Trump鈥檚 strengths 鈥� reading voters and accurately identifying their concerns 鈥� are no longer outweighing his shortcomings.

His limitations have long been known. He speaks off the cuff. His policies lack specificity and practicality. His demeanor can be boorish.聽For months, the connection he has made with his core audience 鈥� in some cases, through those very qualities 鈥� has limited any damage.

But now, with only two other competitors left in the race and Trump urgently needing 1,237 delegates to avoid a contested convention in which the party will be aligned against him, his clairaudience isn鈥檛 enough. So far, he's won fewer than 50 percent of the delegates on offer; to get to 1,237, he'll need to win more than 60 percent of those remaining. In other words, he needs to expand his support.

As a result, the candidate who has broken all the political "rules" of how to run for president is at last having to reckon with them.

鈥淗e鈥檚 kind of like a guy in a barber shop that makes a lot of sense complaining about things. But that doesn鈥檛 mean he should be president of the United States,鈥� says GOP consultant Matt Mackowiak, who has not endorsed any candidate. 聽

鈥淭his is the challenge going forward: Can he grow as a candidate, and can he grow as a credible nominee?鈥�

Getting specific

No question, the billionaire has identified issues that voters care about, says Republican pollster David Winston, president of The Winston Group.

Along with Mr. Cruz, Trump criticizes lax immigration enforcement and wants to build a big barrier on the southern border.

Along with Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders, Trump has railed against international trade deals that have cost Americans well-paying manufacturing jobs.

And he has made a consummate dealmaker鈥檚 complaint 颅that the US is getting 鈥渞ipped off鈥� by allies who won鈥檛 contribute a fair share to NATO.

鈥淚s Trump identifying dynamics that people care about? Yes,鈥� says Mr. Winston, who does polling for Republicans in Congress. 鈥淪o you鈥檝e identified the problem. Great. What鈥檚 your solution?鈥�

Until this week, Trump has been able to successfully run a primary campaign on such broad policy prescriptions (or none at all) because of his celebrity, his tell-it-like-it-is style, and the fact that there were so many candidates in the race 鈥� candidates who mostly fought each other, not him.

鈥淲ith 17 candidates running, there鈥檚 not enough time to force details on tax cuts or whatever your foreign policy is,鈥� says Mackowiak. 鈥淣ow we鈥檙e down to three candidates and there鈥檚 more of a requirement for specificity.鈥�

As that dynamic has changed, however, Trump has not grown as a "credible nominee," Mr. Mackowiak argues. He cites the billionaire鈥檚 recent interviews on policy positions in The New York Times, The Washington Post, and other media. He鈥檚 laid out positions such as a nuclear-armed Japan and South Korea, possibly leaving NATO, and forcing Mexico to pay for a wall on the border by cutting off money that Mexicans in the US send back home.

Experts have called these positions unworkable or even dangerous. But perhaps more important to voters, they have revealed 鈥渉ow totally out of his depth he is鈥� on almost every major issue, Mackowiak says.

'More presidential'?

So, can Trump study up and act 鈥渕ore presidential,鈥� as he says his friends and family are urging him to do?聽

He鈥檚 planning soon to roll out more policy speeches (his speech on US-Israeli relations聽was written by his son-in-law). Recently, one of his foreign policy advisers appeared on the respected PBS Newshour 鈥� but his team is or people who have mixed reputations in foreign policy circles, according to Politico.

鈥淗e would need a lot more than a few policy speeches written by somebody else to be a credible candidate for president. He would need an entire personality transplant, and that's not going to happen,鈥� says GOP pollster Whit Ayres, president of North Star Opinion Research. Mr. Ayres was the pollster for Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio, who has dropped out of the race.聽

Trump has said that he will be 鈥渧ery presidential鈥� once he dispenses with his competitors, Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. He鈥檒l be so presidential, he鈥檚 telling the media, that they鈥檒l be 鈥渂ored.鈥�

But in Wisconsin, exit polls show that nearly 40 percent of Republicans said they would not vote for him if he were the nominee. He would need 鈥渘orth of 90 percent in his own party鈥� to win a general election, Ayres points out.

Meanwhile, his controversial style and broad policy pronouncements may have won him a loyal following among primary voters, but his approach so far has also resulted in very high negative ratings among general election voters 鈥� unfavorables in the mid- to high-60s.聽

One of Trump's challenges will be to find some way to drop those 鈥渟taggering鈥� negatives, explains Winston. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 incredibly hard to do.鈥�