JD Vance heads into the toughest assignment of his career
By sending Vice President JD Vance to spearhead U.S. peace talks with Iran, President Donald Trump has handed his vice president a high-stakes role with far-reaching global consequences. It鈥檚 also a role that carries high political stakes for Mr. Vance, an avowed skeptic of foreign military interventions who serves a president who has embraced brinkmanship in wartime as few U.S. leaders have done before.
Mr. Vance is due to begin talks with Iranian officials in Islamabad, Pakistan on Saturday along with Mr. Trump鈥檚 Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president鈥檚 son-in-law. The talks come after a two-week ceasefire was agreed to Tuesday in a war launched six weeks ago by Mr. Trump in concert with Israel. The U.S. and Israel have pummeled Iran in a spiraling conflict that has severely disrupted trade in the Persian Gulf and spread to other countries in the region, including Lebanon, which Israel has partially occupied.
The ceasefire is designed to allow the U.S. and Iran to try to come to terms that satisfy U.S. goals of curbing Iran鈥檚 nuclear ambitions and offensive missile capabilities while also providing Iran with economic sanctions relief and security guarantees. Also key is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has throttled since the war started, and where it is now seeking to levy tolls on transiting ships, including oil tankers critical to supplying global markets.
Why We Wrote This
As he prepares to lead the U.S. delegation in Pakistan to try to reach a peace agreement with Iran, Vice President JD Vance鈥檚 longtime anti-interventionist stance could help build trust with the Iranians. But Mr. Vance also could end up taking the blame if talks fall apart.
It鈥檚 unclear whether the two sides will talk directly or indirectly through mediators. Were Mr. Vance to meet directly with Iranian officials, he would become the highest-ranking U.S. official to do so since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that ended decades of U.S. involvement in Iran under royal dictatorship.
Mr. Vance鈥檚 longstanding opposition to 鈥渇orever wars鈥� in the Middle East has raised questions about his support for the war against Iran. on the doubts he raised in prewar administration meetings, including about likely negative reactions from Mr. Trump鈥檚 鈥淎merica-First鈥� supporters who had welcomed his pledge to end costly wars and focus on domestic programs. The vice president鈥檚 reputation as an anti-interventionist that he play a role in peace talks ( that he wasn鈥檛 aware of any requests.)
Mr. Vance has made no public criticism of Mr. Trump鈥檚 decision to go to war. But his private skepticism has been telegraphed and now he鈥檚 entering a 鈥減olitical minefield鈥� as the point man for U.S.-Iran talks 鈥� possibly a loyalty test set by Mr. Trump, says Matt Wylie, a Republican strategist. 鈥淗e鈥檚 tried to make it known he wasn鈥檛 for this, which is why he gets to be the face of doing it.鈥�
Mr. Wylie adds, 鈥淚 think he is going to run into a problem where his loyalty to Trump will sort of destroy a lot of his political base.鈥�
MAGA divisions over Iran
That base is divided over Iran policy, questioning Israel鈥檚 role in initiating the conflict, and unhappy about rising gas prices at home. While it鈥檚 too early to know what issues will matter in the 2028 election in which Mr. Vance is expected to seek the Republican nomination, 鈥渋t鈥檚 very hard for vice presidents to extricate themselves from the policies of their president,鈥� says Matthew Dallek, a political historian at George Washington University.
For now, 鈥渉e鈥檚 got to be the chief defender of the war in Iran. He鈥檚 got no choice,鈥� Professor Dallek says. That puts Mr. Vance 鈥渋n a particularly tough political spot.鈥�
Vice presidents are often tasked to lead efforts that don鈥檛 yield easy solutions, but rarely as the principal in peace talks to end a war, says Joel Goldstein, professor emeritus at St. Louis University School of Law and an expert on the vice presidency. Traditionally, presidents have tapped senior diplomats and special envoys for such roles.
While the vice presidency can be a springboard to the presidency, Mr. Vance will be in the unusual position in 2028 of only having served a single term, given Mr. Trump鈥檚 term limit. Past vice presidents who served two terms in that role could use the first term to establish themselves and then start preparing to run for the top job, says Professor Goldstein. 鈥淚n Vance鈥檚 case it鈥檚 all compressed into one.鈥�
During his successful run for the U.S. Senate from Ohio in 2022, Mr. Vance, a first-time political candidate, leaned into his hardscrabble working-class background and military service to burnish his America First credentials with Trump voters. He had served in Iraq as a public affairs officer in the Marine Corps, an experience that he said shaped his political views.
, 鈥淚 saw when I went to Iraq that I had been lied to. That the promises of the foreign policy establishment of this country were a complete joke.鈥� Later that year, Mr. Trump picked Mr. Vance as his running mate, elevating a politician nearly half his age to a position that would make him a future standard-bearer for a post-Trump Republican Party.
A loyal No. 2
Last June, in the run-up to U.S. airstrikes on Iran鈥檚 nuclear sites. The airstrikes, which Mr. Trump claimed at the time had 鈥渙bliterated鈥� Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, were opposed by some high-profile MAGA media figures like Tucker Carlson. Mr. Vance wrote on X that voters 鈥渁re right to be worried about foreign entanglement after the last 25 years of idiotic foreign policy. But I believe that the president has earned some trust on this issue.鈥�
Before the latest strikes against Iran, Mr. Trump had raised the possibility of sending Mr. Vance and Mr. Witkoff to talk with Iranian officials. Instead, he used Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner as his envoys, before U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began with the assassination of Iran鈥檚 supreme leader, Ali Khamanei, whose son has since replaced him.
When Mr. Trump ratcheted up his rhetoric against Iran, threatening on Tuesday to destroy its 鈥渃ivilization鈥� if it didn鈥檛 reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Mr. Vance, on a visit to Hungary, was far less bellicose. He said the U.S. had 鈥渓argely accomplished its military objectives鈥� and that the war would shortly conclude. He also spoke in measured terms after the announced ceasefire about the negotiating stances of both sides.
But the idea that Mr. Vance鈥檚 past skepticism towards war with Iran will smooth his path to a deal in Islamabad may be wishful thinking, says Mitchell Reiss, a former U.S. special envoy for the Northern Ireland peace process under President George W. Bush. One reason: Mr. Vance鈥檚 boss, Mr. Trump, tore up in 2018 the detailed nuclear non-proliferation deal with Iran signed under President Barack Obama. Iranians also may suspect the last U.S. negotiations, with Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner, were simply a ruse to buy time before preplanned military actions.
鈥淭he Iranians are going to be extremely skeptical of whoever the American interlocutor is,鈥� Ambassador Reiss says. 鈥淵ou could be Mahatma Gandhi and show up on behalf of the United States, and I don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 going to impress the Iranians at this point.鈥�
Barbara Slavin, an Iran specialist and distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, says the chances of a breakthrough seem slim because the two sides鈥� demands are so far apart. That could put Mr. Vance in a near-impossible situation as Mr. Trump seeks an exit strategy from the war.
鈥淣obody knows that this [ceasefire] is going to even last two days, let alone two weeks,鈥� she says.
Staff writer Victoria Hoffmann contributed to this report.
