Could Trump cost GOP more than White House?
| Doylestown, Pa.
It鈥檚 being called the Republican 鈥淭rumpmare鈥� and it looks like this: Not only will a Donald Trump nomination cost the GOP the White House, but the Senate as well 鈥� and possibly even the House, though that鈥檚 a long shot.
The fear is that in a general election, many Republicans won鈥檛 show up for the Donald, and/or that Democrats will come out in force against him.
If that happens, the thinking goes,听say goodbye to the five incumbent GOP senators in states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that went for President Obama in 2012. Probably also forget the Republicans vying for open seats in Nevada and Florida that also went for Mr. Obama last time.
Democrats need only four GOP seats to retake the Senate 鈥� five if they lose the White House. They would need 30 seats to win back the House. With gerrymandered safe districts, that鈥檚 a very steep hill to climb, but Mr. Trump at the top of the ticket could endanger GOP seats in suburban swing areas such as this one, north of Philadelphia.
Heather, a moderate Republican voter in Pennsylvania, personifies the possible peril. One day her son was exclaiming in another room, 鈥淚 am Donald Trump! I am Donald Trump! I am so mean!鈥� She went into the room and found him holding his Darth Vader action figure, bouncing it around.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 know what to do with that,鈥� she tells a reporter, asking that her real name not be used because she is known in Republican circles.
Heather says that she and her moderate Republican friends are distressed about how to vote if Trump wins the nomination. 鈥淲e鈥檙e all talking about it,鈥� she says. She insists, though, that they won鈥檛 vote for a Democrat 鈥� certainly not Hillary Clinton, she says, citing the trust factor.
'We've never seen anything like this'
Trump says there鈥檚 nothing to worry about 鈥� that he鈥檚 actually widening the tent, converting Democrats to his brand of Republicanism and bringing in new voters. In Pennsylvania, more than 60,000 Democrats have re-registered as Republicans.
鈥淭he truth is, no one knows鈥� whether a Trump nomination will have a negative down-ballot effect on other races, says Jennifer Duffy, who tracks Senate races at the independent Cook Political Report.
That鈥檚 because this race is unlike any other, she says. 鈥淲hat we lack here is data, because we鈥檝e never seen anything like this.鈥�
The closest analogy is 1980, when a landslide victory by Republican Ronald Reagan crushed Senate Democrats and flipped control to the GOP. The reverse could happen this time. In a match-up with Mrs. Clinton, the Democratic front-runner, Trump loses badly 鈥� by 11 points, according to the average of polls. He loses by a wider margin 鈥� 17 points 鈥� to her challenger, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
But Ms. Duffy says that 1980 is not really comparable. At that time, Senate Democrats didn鈥檛 see the threatening wave coming. Now, Republicans do, and they and their outside donors are busy erecting a cash and to protect their congressional candidates from the flames of Trump, according to The Washington Post.
Also, unlike Reagan, Trump is not ideologically consistent, making voter behavior harder to predict.
One 鈥渢hread of evidence鈥� that should encourage Republicans, says Duffy, is that Senate Republican incumbents have done well in primaries so far. There鈥檚 not an anti-incumbent mood in the Senate, even with Trump on the ballot. But the real test will be in a general election, when Democrats and Republicans go head-to-head.
Another encouraging sign for Republicans is new voters or crossover voters attracted to the billionaire. 鈥淭rump could actually be helpful鈥� in blue-collar states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio, where white, working-class males like his message, Duffy adds.
Democrats for Trump
Take Bill Dostal, a retired truck driver who is just emerging from the WaWa market here in Doylestown. He鈥檚 a registered Democrat who voted for President Obama in 2012. But he鈥檚 seriously considering Trump this time.
Mr. Dostal 鈥渃an鈥檛 stand Hillary,鈥� and though he finds Republican John Kasich 鈥渕ore level-headed鈥� than Trump, he likes the billionaire鈥檚 plain talk.
鈥淭rump is saying what most people feel,鈥� says Dostal, carrying a gallon of milk in his hand as he stops to talk before getting into his pick-up truck. 鈥淲e鈥檙e just tired of everything.鈥�
Simon Williams, also retired and a registered Democrat, feels similarly. If Ohio Governor Kasich were ahead, he鈥檇 get his vote, but Trump 鈥渋s telling it like it is.鈥� Mr. Williams likes the real estate mogul鈥檚 business record, his toughness.
Standing outside the Quaker Steak & Lube restaurant in Mechanicsburg, Williams says he鈥檚 fed up with both parties. 鈥淔orget about Democrats and Republicans. Get someone in the White House who鈥檚 going to work for the people.鈥�
But analysts point out that Trump is making too much of his ability to attract new voters and crossover voters to the party.
Record GOP turnout in the primaries also has to do with the number of competitors and the stiffness of the competition, reports Monitor political writer Linda Feldmann. Strong Republican turnout now doesn鈥檛 necessarily translate to the general election.
In Pennsylvania, Preston Maddock describes the GOP talking point that 63,000 Democrats have switched their registration to Republican as 鈥渁 red herring.鈥�
Mr. Maddock, the communications director for the state鈥檚 Democratic party, points out that 29,000 voters have done the opposite, that Democrats have registered more new voters than Republicans have, and that more voters have moved from independent to Democrat than from independent to Republican.
The net effect is a GOP boost of only 15,000 voters. In a state where Democrats enjoy a 1 million voter registration advantage, 鈥渢hat鈥檚 a meaningless difference,鈥� he says.
Meanwhile, a recent has Mrs. Clinton beating Trump in a hypothetical match-up by 46 to 33 in Pennsylvania.听
This is not lost on Don Petrille, who last week gathered with a few of his fellow Republicans at the Bucks County GOP headquarters here to meet briefly with Sen. Pat Toomey. The Republican senator is running for reelection this year, and is considered vulnerable in a state that hasn鈥檛 voted for a Republican president since 1988. The senator admits he's in "a tough race."
Mr. Petrille is very concerned about the 鈥淭rump effect鈥� on down-ballot races, not to mention on the presidential race. Republicans in swing Bucks County have worked hard to get Republicans elected at the state, county, and judgeship levels.
Then there鈥檚 the open seat in Petrille鈥檚 district created by the retirement of Republican Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick 鈥� rated a 鈥渢oss-up鈥� by the Cook Political Report.
鈥淎ll of these gains could be for nothing if there鈥檚 a backlash against the Republican Party because of Donald Trump,鈥� says Petrille. 鈥淚 think Trump could be a 40-state disaster.鈥�
Petrille is backing Republican Ted Cruz instead. The conservative Texas senator doesn鈥檛 fit the county鈥檚 moderate stance, but Petrille is hopeful. 鈥淚 think the more people see of Cruz, the more they鈥檒l like him.鈥�
