Does Republican debate show Donald Trump has already won?
Real voting for the GOP presidential nominee hasn鈥檛 yet begun. But has Donald Trump already won the political contest?
Not literally, of course. It鈥檚 still possible the real estate billionaire won鈥檛 emerge as the nominee. 鈥淗ow Trump Loses鈥� remains a . The most persuasive scenarios involve a narrow Trump loss to Ted Cruz in Iowa, and then a slow deflation of his campaign as his voters defect to others, or don鈥檛 bother to show up at the polls.
But Mr. Trump might also emerge victorious. He seems to have a late burst of Iowa momentum and he鈥檚 got double-digit leads in second-to-vote New Hampshire and South Carolina, which comes third. And right now Senator Cruz looks like his only serious competition.
For months, pundits have waited for the Republican Party establishment to coalesce around an alternative to Trump, most likely Marco Rubio. That hasn鈥檛 happened. Nor has any party actor organized an anti-Trump advertising effort. One political science theory holds that when it comes to presidential nominations in the post-Watergate US, . The current situation doesn鈥檛 disprove that theory. It just seems as if the party is twiddling its thumbs and whistling while it doesn鈥檛 decide anything at all.
The result may be a growing fatalism among some Republicans who believe Trump will damage the party鈥檚 image and lead to down-ballot losses.
鈥淭rump, once regarded as a political neophyte who would inevitably self-destruct, is now increasingly seen as an unstoppable force,鈥� writes John Cassidy in .
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Plus, there鈥檚 Trump and there鈥檚 Trumpism. The political fate of the former remains unpredictable. It鈥檚 the latter that may have already carried the day in the GOP. In that sense, The Donald may have already triumphed.
That seemed the case in Thursday鈥檚 GOP debate, in any case.
In part this was stylistic. Belligerence was the order of the night. Trump himself said he would 鈥済ladly accept the mantle of anger,鈥� given what he described as the terrible state of the US military, US health care, and other US institutions.
Meanwhile, Chris Christie went hard after every target in sight. 鈥淵ou already had your chance Marco, you blew it,鈥� he said during one exchange with Senator Rubio. And Rubio himself talked like someone who had been advised to appear forceful. He was rapid, emphatic, and looked directly into the camera lens.
But the Trumpian focus was also substantive. Questions made it clear that Trump鈥檚 issues have redefined the race, and in some cases pushed contenders into positions they might have otherwise avoided.
鈥淩epublicans have already surrendered to Trump: they have mostly given up on trying to resist the terms of the debate as he has set them, and have mostly accepted that the battle will be fought on his turf,鈥� writes left-leaning Greg Sargent today in his Morning Plum political blog at The Washington Post.
Immigration is now a litmus test for many in the GOP, for instance. That鈥檚 something that, following Mitt Romney鈥檚 loss in 2012, the GOP establishment explicitly wanted to avoid. When Rubio and Cruz on Thursday night got into a tussle over immigration positions, the issue was who was most ready to double-down against the legalization of immigrants now illegally in this country, not whether such 鈥渁mnesty鈥� might be a way of dealing with an undocumented population of some 11 million.
When moderators asked about Trump鈥檚 proposal to temporarily ban non-citizen Muslims from entering the US, only Jeb Bush mounted a 鈥渟erious鈥� argument against it, according to Mr. Sargent. The other candidates largely acquiesced to Trump鈥檚 framing of the issue as a step necessary for the US to guard against the possible security dangers posed by Syrian refugees.
On both undocumented immigrants and Muslim entry, 鈥渢he debate is over what to do about the notion that immigration risks admitting sinister threats into the country,鈥� writes Sargent.
In part this is due to events. Terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, Calif., have shifted the terms of the US political debate. In part it is due to the underlying beliefs of a substantial number of GOP voters, which Trump reflects.
But much of it is due to Trump himself, who has stormed through the long presidential invisible primary season and pushed the Republican Party in a manner its traditional leaders didn鈥檛 anticipate, and in directions they didn鈥檛 want to go.
