How Donald Trump has shaken the Republican Party
| Washington
Reluctantly, the Republican establishment is coming to terms with the shortcomings that Donald Trump鈥檚 insurgent campaign has laid bare.
What to do about them, however, remains as mystifying as ever.
On one hand, Mr. Trump embodies the 鈥渉appy warrior.鈥� For a party that has been caricatured as dour malcontents determined to say 鈥渘o鈥� to anything and everything, Trump鈥檚 success in casting himself as a can-do, fix-it man who dares to 鈥淢ake America Great Again鈥� constitutes a rebuke.
Yet, at the same time, Trump also embodies the headlong race toward the politics of fear, most clearly with his proposed temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States.
There is little doubt that those politics can win votes. Yet there is also a growing sense that those politics, repeated during the recent past, have played no small part in bringing the Republican Party to where it is today 鈥� with considerable power, but desperately holding on to a tiger鈥檚 tail of voter anger.
In its broadest terms, the question posed by the rise of Trump is how to move past the politics of anger and reclaim the mantle of Ronald Reagan 鈥� someone who 鈥渕ade people happy to vote for him.鈥�
House Speaker Paul Ryan has already attempted to stake out this ground, and a new generation of conservative thinkers is laying out a vision of a Republican Party that embraces issues of poverty, reaches out to new voters, and shows compassion.
The lessons aren鈥檛 new. A post mortem of Mitt Romney鈥檚 decisive loss to President Obama in 2012 came to the same conclusions. Exit polls showed that most voters did not think Mr. Romney 鈥渃ares about people like me.鈥� But Trump鈥檚 ascendance has created a fresh urgency, painting a stark picture of a party potentially on the brink of major losses in Washington.
鈥淩onald Reagan won in 1980 because he was the happier candidate, he was the candidate with the bigger heart, he made people happy to vote for him,鈥� said Arthur Brooks, president of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a Washington think tank, at gathering of conservative activists last week. 鈥淗ow many conservative leaders today have that?鈥�
'This isn't about Trump'
For many GOP activists, the serial controversies of the Trump campaign revive tribal memories of the 1964 blowout defeat of conservative Barry Goldwater, whose views came to be viewed as too harsh and extreme for general election voters.
In 2016, it鈥檚 not just the White House that鈥檚 at risk but also the GOP鈥檚 hard-won control of the Senate.
But attacks by GOP leaders only appear to drive Trump鈥檚 poll ratings higher, confirming the low esteem that voters have for the current Republican establishment.聽After a report last week that GOP officials had met to secretly prepare for the possibility of 聽that could deny Trump the nomination, his poll ratings hit聽聽at聽38 percent of registered Republican-leaning voters.
鈥淭his isn鈥檛 about Trump,鈥� Mr. Ryan聽聽on Friday. 鈥淭his is about do we run on substance or do we run on personality? If we run on personality, we lose those elections.鈥�
In a signature speech last week, Ryan laid out his聽plans to turn the GOP into a party of positive ideas.
It is a vision that harks back to former Rep. Jack Kemp of New York, whose ideas on how to create jobs, lift people out of poverty, and grow a more inclusive party helped define the Reagan Revolution and inspired a generation of Republican activists, including Ryan, who calls Mr. Kemp his mentor.
And Ryan isn鈥檛 the only conservative seeking to resuscitate the 鈥渉appy warrior鈥� pioneered by Kemp.
鈥淧eople see us as grim, grumpy, and unhappy, and that鈥檚 got to stop,鈥� said Mr. Brooks last Wednesday.
鈥淐onservatives have the right stuff to lift up the poor and vulnerable 鈥� but have been generally terrible at winning people鈥檚 hearts,鈥� he adds in his latest book, 鈥淭he Conservative Heart: How to build a fairer, happier, and more prosperous America.鈥澛�
鈥淓ffective conservatives are not people who fight only for people who support them but also for people who need them鈥� 鈥� especially groups that generally vote against Republicans, such as Latinos, African Americans, single women, Millennials, and the poor, he writes.
This has not been the course of the Republican Party in recent years, though there have been signs of a shift. Ryan and Sen. Rand Paul (R) of Kentucky, in particular, have stepped beyond the traditional white, male, middle- and working-class base to address issues of poverty.
But the call is broadening. Last Wednesday鈥檚 event for conservative activists was held at the headquarters of Americans for Tax Reform, the group that pioneered the taxpayer protection pledge in 1986 to put politicians on record in opposition to raising taxes. Over time, however, that approach came to be viewed as supporting mainly the top 1 percent.
Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist left no doubt that that is not the Republican Party he wants.聽
鈥淐onservatives need to talk to people who don鈥檛 see free market economics as solving problems,鈥� he said last week. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 particularly where you need to be a happy warrior, a conservative with heart.鈥�
Trump has some of that confident, outgoing style, but little of the policy, Norquist added. 鈥淗e keeps saying, 鈥業 can fix it鈥� and 鈥業 will fix it.鈥� I鈥檇 be more comfortable with more specific policy suggestions.鈥�
The birth of the 'Reformicon'
Just as security-focused conservative 鈥渘eocons鈥� emerged after 9/11, a new breed of conservative 鈥渞eformicon鈥� is emerging in the wake of the Great Recession, with policies aimed at helping middle-class workers, students, and the poor.
鈥淩eformicon鈥� proposals include empowering investors to pay a student鈥檚 tuition in return for a percentage of future earnings, requiring colleges and universities to pay a percentage of student loans in cases of default, and establishing a new Homestead Act to give tax breaks and income-support to encourage worker mobility to areas with better job prospects.聽
鈥淚n the conservative intellectual community, there鈥檚 a real effort to come up with ways of dealing with low wages, providing assistance to people to find jobs, keep jobs, give a decent living,鈥� says Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at AEI. 鈥淏ut none of the presidential candidates are talking about these things and not very many members of Congress.鈥�
And that is the issue.
鈥淎s much as the [GOP] establishment wants to reassert an optimistic view, that line of thinking does not appear to be what is pushing the front-runners up in the polls,鈥� says GOP strategist聽John Ullyot, managing director of High Lantern Group in Washington.
鈥淭he Republican electorate seems to be responding much more this cycle to a harsher rhetorical line, and that鈥檚 probably not good for the party in the long term, but there鈥檚 not much that can be done about that for the time being,鈥� he adds.
In the aftermath of Mr. Romney鈥檚 2012 loss, the No. 1 recommendation by a blue-ribbon report from the Republican National Committee opened with a reference to Kemp: 鈥淛ack Kemp used to say, No one cares what you know until they know you care."聽
But little changed in the GOP, and while Trump has his own vision of the promise of the future, he is also cashing in on fear. The latest polls suggest his support is surging in the wake of recent terrorist attacks.
Trump is 鈥渃hanneling anger felt by a certain sector of the electorate that鈥檚 no different from what鈥檚 felt in Europe among the white working class,鈥� says聽Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington and a leading Reformicon.
鈥淚t would be nice to think that the way to appeal to the Trump constituency is to actually address their concerns, which is that they are losing ground under the current economic regime,鈥� he adds. 鈥淭hat suggests that a party that focuses on gutting entitlements and taxes for the top 1 percent is not meeting their needs.鈥�
鈥淵ou can smile all you want, but that dog won鈥檛 hunt,鈥� he says.
