海角大神

Hillary Clinton takes the stage to cheers and extended applause at Verizon Wireless Arena in Manchester, N.H., and holds her hand to her chest.

鈥淢y heart is just racing!鈥� the Democratic presidential front-runner exclaims, looking out at the sea of smiling faces, bobbing signs 鈥� some saying 鈥淲omen for H鈥� 鈥� and inflatable noisemaker sticks. After her 40-minute speech, former Secretary Clinton even does a little jig with supporters.

Yet when Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders comes out to address the 4,000 attendees moments later, he is greeted even more enthusiastically. Along with the usual crowd of young Sanders activists, there is a sizable contingent of older women wearing 鈥淏ernie鈥� T-shirts and waving 鈥淏ernie鈥� signs.

It is another reminder that no votes are a sure thing for Clinton, even those of Democratic women who have long dreamed of seeing one of their own in the Oval Office. Indeed, a 29 percentage point decline over the summer in Clinton鈥檚 national support among Democratic-leaning female primary voters suggests that the historic nature of her candidacy is losing some of its pull.

The decline coincided with growing questions about her exclusive use of a private e-mail server during her time as secretary of State. And most immediately, Clinton鈥檚 challenge is to survive her e-mail troubles. But beyond that, her summer decline speaks to a need to knit together the complex points of her persona into something that enough Americans will embrace.聽

She is a woman, now emphasizing all the history that includes but still grappling with public expectations of female candidates.

She is a Clinton, dealing with all the benefits and drawbacks that the name presents, and 鈥� at the moment 鈥� perhaps being harmed by it.

And she is Hillary, the 眉ber policy wonk.

Clinton's drop in support among Democratic women 鈥� from 71 percent in July to 42 percent in September, according to a 鈥� attracted special notice by political observers. But the drop cannot be fully attributed to the聽e-mail investigation, some say. After all, Democrats are less concerned about the e-mails than are Republicans. But the situation could feed into larger concerns.

One is that the issue may make Clinton less electable. And 鈥渕ore deeply, with Democrats it鈥檚 just another thing that plays into people not trusting the Clintons,鈥� says Dianne Bystrom, director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University. 鈥淣ot just Hillary, but Bill, too.鈥�

Hillary's 'Clinton problem'

Is it possible, then, that Hillary Clinton is already so well known 鈥� starting as a first lady deeply immersed in policy, then United States senator, 2008 presidential candidate, and secretary of State 鈥� and is so closely tied to her husband, former President Bill Clinton, that her gender loses some of its pop as a factor for voters? In a word, yes.

鈥淧eople have vehement reactions to her in one direction or another, and have for 20 years,鈥� says Jennifer Lawless, an expert on women and politics at American University in Washington. 鈥淪o I鈥檝e often said that if people are fundamentally opposed to her, I鈥檓 not convinced that it鈥檚 sexism; it could be 鈥楥linton-ism.鈥� 鈥�

The 鈥淐linton鈥� aspect of her candidacy has multiple dimensions. There's the positive side 鈥� the peace and prosperity that marked her husband's presidency. Then there's the centrist approach to politics that was a hallmark of her husband鈥檚 time in office, when 鈥渢riangulation鈥� was the name of the game 鈥� playing off both Republicans and Democrats. To liberals, this is a negative. Then there are the controversies and scandals that ran through the Clinton years, most notably Whitewater and Monica Lewinsky.

Questions about Hillary Clinton鈥檚 e-mails 鈥� as well as the propriety of to the Clinton family foundation while she ran the State Department 鈥� feed an existing narrative about the Clintons and secrecy that gives some voters pause, including Democrats. As Hillary Clinton鈥檚 poll numbers have declined, so too have her on honesty and trustworthiness.

For Clinton, it has been assumed that her gender would give her a boost among women voters. But the Washington Post-ABC News poll shows her support among men and women as equal.

How women see Hillary

How women voters, in particular, assess women running for office is open to debate. One shows that women are harder on female candidates than on male candidates.

Another finds just the opposite, that women have a slight preference for women candidates.

At a Clinton campaign event in Portland, Maine, on Sept. 18, the young mom and community activist, Katie Mae Simpson, who introduced Clinton made clear she鈥檚 been excited about the idea of a woman president ever since she watched the 1988 Democratic National Convention with her dad, and wondered why no women were running.

Standing in the back of the auditorium at King Middle School in Portland, Cassandra Gelpi has nothing but high praise for Clinton.

鈥淚鈥檝e idolized her since she was the first lady, trying to fix health care,鈥� Ms. Gelpi says. 鈥淪he鈥檚 a proven leader.鈥�

鈥淔irst woman president鈥� is just a 鈥渂onus feature,鈥� she says.

But when her husband, Robert Gelpi, is asked about Clinton, gender is his first point: 鈥淚t鈥檚 about time we had a woman in the White House.鈥�

The idea of a woman president is now nearly universally acceptable to Americans 鈥� 92 percent, according to .

But Professor Lawless of American University calls Clinton鈥檚 initial levels of support among women 鈥渦nrealistically high and inflated.鈥� Clinton tapped into the enthusiasm for her new candidacy before the Sanders campaign took off and Vice President Joe Biden began openly contemplating a run. Clinton鈥檚 numbers now are not especially low, Lawless adds.

Ronna Hamelin, a Sanders supporter attending the New Hampshire Democratic convention, supported Clinton eight years ago, but has been all in for Sanders since he announced.

鈥淚鈥檇 love to see a woman president, but I don鈥檛 think I鈥檒l live long enough,鈥� she says. 鈥淚 think [gender] is going to be the last priority on the agenda of who we elect.鈥�

For her, Sanders鈥� platform is more important.

鈥淚 am a pretty far left liberal, so I never thought in my lifetime that I鈥檇 see a candidate who so closely aligned with what I believe in,鈥� adds Ms. Hamelin, chair of the Democratic Party in Newmarket, N.H.

Hamelin admires Clinton for going to China in 1995, and declaring that 鈥渨omen鈥檚 rights are human rights.鈥� But, she says, Clinton has changed. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 like that she takes money from Wall Street and I think that has to impact the stands she takes,鈥� Hamelin says.

She鈥檚 also clear on what hasn鈥檛 affected her opinion of Clinton. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not e-mails, it鈥檚 not Benghazi, it鈥檚 not her personality,鈥� she says, referring to the controversial attack on the United States diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya, in 2012. 鈥淚鈥檓 a progressive and Bernie is a progressive, and I stand by his ideas.鈥�

Still, if Clinton is the Democratic nominee, Hamelin says she鈥檒l vote for her. All but one of the dozen Sanders supporters interviewed at the convention echoed that view.

The line on Clinton is that, this time, she鈥檚 running for president 鈥渁s a woman鈥� 鈥� as if she could run as anything else.

The point is, she鈥檚 talking more about women鈥檚 issues than she did in her last campaign 鈥� equal pay, reproductive rights, child care 鈥� and about being a mother, a daughter, and now a grandmother. Earlier this month, her campaign launched a 鈥淲omen for Hillary鈥� initiative. Last week, Clinton reached out to Millennial women by sitting down for an interview with 鈥淕irls鈥� star (and Clinton supporter) Lena Dunham.

When Clinton began her 2008 candidacy heavily favored to win the Democratic nomination, she appeared to take female voters鈥� support for granted. It was obvious, her approach suggested, that she鈥檇 make history as the first woman president. After the Super Tuesday primaries, she began to play up the 鈥渨oman angle鈥� to her candidacy. But by then, it was too late. Then-Sen. Barack Obama was on the path to his own historic presidency.

Mr. Obama鈥檚 charisma and superior campaign strategy beat Clinton鈥檚 workaday style. This time, Clinton has hired key members of Team Obama, but she is who she is, analysts say 鈥� more head over heart.

Running as herself

At a recent event at the University of New Hampshire, Durham, to unveil her 鈥淣ew College Compact,鈥� a plan to address crushing student debt, Clinton showed encyclopedic knowledge of the details. The vibe was more symposium than pep rally. Two days later, Sanders drew as many people to the same university.

Sanders gets points for 鈥渁uthenticity,鈥� as he sticks to the same democratic socialist views he鈥檚 had for decades. In the process, he has created his own brand of grumpy-old-white-guy charisma. Clinton has begun to address criticism that she鈥檚 too 鈥渃alculating,鈥� that she shapes her positions to the politics of the day.

On NBC鈥檚 鈥淢eet the Press鈥� Sunday, Clinton was asked whether part of Sanders鈥� appeal was the consistency of his views, such as his opposition to the Keystone XL pipeline, to which she just announced her opposition.聽

鈥淚 can just tell you that I am not someone who stakes out a position and holds it regardless of the evidence or regardless of the way that I perceive what's happening in the world around me,鈥� Clinton said.

In short, Clinton is not trying to be someone she鈥檚 not, both in substance and style. During a recent, tense encounter with members of the Black Lives Matter movement, Clinton listened patiently while a young activist spoke, then offered some advice.

"Look, I don't believe you change hearts," Clinton . "I believe you change laws, you change allocation of resources, you change the way systems operate.鈥�

Her husband, the master campaigner, might well have handled the scene differently, perhaps defusing the tension by putting his arm around the young man, and conveying that he 鈥渇eels his pain.鈥� But that鈥檚 not Hillary Clinton.

鈥淲hat Hillary has decided to do in 2016 is run as herself,鈥� says Karrin Vasby Anderson, a professor of communications at Colorado State University. 鈥淪he鈥檚 a pragmatist. She鈥檚 a policy wonk. She understands the issues. It鈥檚 her strength, and this time she鈥檚 playing to her strength.鈥�

She鈥檚 also not a hugger like her husband. Some experts say the perceived physical constraints faced by women candidates with national aspirations apply to more than just Hillary Clinton.

鈥淲omen presidential candidates can鈥檛 be huggers, because then it gets into all the weird mommy stuff,鈥� says Mary Stuckey, a communications professor at Georgia State University. 鈥淗illary wants people to respect her. I don鈥檛 believe she campaigns as someone who wants us to love her.鈥�

That鈥檚 not to say women candidates can鈥檛 be charismatic. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) of Massachusetts has charisma, at least to liberals. So does former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) on the right, no doubt part of why Sen. John McCain put her on the GOP ticket in 2008.

The political challenges of being a woman

But there is clearly baggage that comes with being a trailblazer for women in the highest level of politics.

Clinton has faced plenty of gendered, sexist reactions over the years, including all the attention to her hair, her voice, and her clothes. To Rush Limbaugh, her laugh is a 鈥渃ackle,鈥� her voice like that of a 鈥渟creeching ex-wife.鈥� Just recently, Donald Trump called her 鈥渟hrill.鈥�

In 2008, when Clinton persisted in battling Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination to the bitter end, she was likened to Glenn Close in 鈥淔atal Attraction.鈥� This year, on the eve of her campaign announcement, 鈥淪aturday Night Live鈥� portrayed her pursuit of the presidency as near-maniacal.

鈥淭hat was a great example of how a woman, unlike a man, can鈥檛 look like she wants it too much,鈥� says Professor Anderson of Colorado State, an expert on women in politics.

Longtime political observers see Clinton generally being judged more harshly than a man would be.

鈥淗illary Clinton has to do A+ work to get a C, 鈥� I think because she鈥檚 a woman,鈥� Richard Trumka, president of the AFL-CIO labor coalition, said at a recent Monitor breakfast for reporters. And Mr. Trumka is no shill for Clinton. He鈥檚 unhappy that she has yet to state a position on the proposed Pacific-rim trade agreement

One of the challenges Clinton faces is that there鈥檚 no real-life model for what it looks like to be a female American president. Just as Obama has had to avoid the stereotype of the 鈥渁ngry black male,鈥� Clinton 鈥渃an鈥檛 be the hysterical girl,鈥� says Professor Stuckey of Georgia State.

鈥淪he can鈥檛 really show frustration, she can鈥檛 really show emotion,鈥� Stuckey adds. 鈥淪o I think that what we鈥檙e seeing in those awkward moments鈥� 鈥� like the interaction with the Black Lives Matter activists 鈥� 鈥渋s that she鈥檚 trying to enact a role that she doesn鈥檛 quite own, because we don鈥檛 know what that role is."

The world stage has many examples of strong, tough female leaders, including the late Margaret Thatcher of Britain (鈥淭he Iron Lady鈥�) and Angela Merkel of Germany. Many, including those two, reached the top via the parliamentary system. In the American, presidential system, the election of the top leader is more direct. And Americans typically also want their presidents to be likable.

Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and the only woman in the Republican field, is known for toughness. In her breakout performance in the second GOP debate, she barely smiled. But what mattered was that on a range of topics, she commanded the room. And she stood up to Donald Trump, who had disparaged her appearance.聽She can (and must) work on likability next, observers say.

Experts warn against comparing the Fiorina and Clinton candidacies too closely. Ms. Fiorina is new to the national stage; Clinton has been globally famous for more than 20 years. But even if neither is the next president, this cycle has already been historic. For the first time, both major parties are fielding strong female candidates.

And 鈥渆very time a woman runs,鈥� says Professor Bystrom of Iowa State, 鈥渋t opens the door a little wider for the next woman.鈥�