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[Update: This story was edited at聽4 p.m. after Mr. Bush's Thursday afternoon remarks on Iraq.]

This week, Jeb Bush鈥檚 foremost problem as a likely presidential candidate went on full display: Can the former Florida governor get over his last name and his emotional personal tie to his brother, the ex-president?

On Thursday, after three days of botched replies to a simple question, Mr. Bush finally said what most everyone expected him to say in the first place.

鈥淜nowing what we now know, what would you have done? I would have not engaged. I would not have gone into Iraq,鈥� Bush said at a campaign stop in聽Tempe, Ariz., .

Bush said he had had trouble with the question, because he didn鈥檛 want to appear ungrateful for the sacrifices made by Americans during the war. But the episode leaves lingering questions about Bush鈥檚 willingness to distance himself from his brother, former President George W. Bush, in the younger Bush鈥檚 expected bid for president in 2016.

Republicans were baffled Monday when Mr. Bush told Megyn Kelly on Fox News that he would have authorized the 2003 Iraq invasion, even given what we know now about the faulty intelligence. Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and John Kasich 鈥� all Republicans running for president or considering it 鈥� say they wouldn鈥檛 have invaded.聽Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton says her 鈥測es鈥� vote as a senator was a mistake.

The next day, on Sean Hannity鈥檚 radio show, Bush. 鈥淚 interpreted the question wrong, I guess,鈥� he said. But when asked again, he demurred: 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know what that decision would have been. That鈥檚 a hypothetical.鈥�

鈥淭hat鈥檚 a hypothetical鈥� is the all-purpose dodge any politician can deploy when he or she doesn鈥檛 want to answer a question. And it made Bush look unprepared. 聽

鈥淛eb should have been prepared to answer that question the second his brother stepped on Marine One to leave the White House in 2009,鈥� says Ford O鈥機onnell, author of 鈥�Hail Mary: The 10-Step Playbook for Republican Recovery.鈥� 鈥淵ou get four or five mulligans on the presidential campaign trail, and he just used one of them up.鈥�

The Iraq War remains deeply unpopular with the American public; in June 2014, 75 percent of the US public said the Iraq War was not worth the costs, according to a

The good news for Bush is that most Americans aren鈥檛 yet paying close attention to the 2016 race. It鈥檚 been 13 years since he last ran for office 鈥� reelection as governor of Florida 鈥� and he鈥檚 still getting his political sea legs back. Though he鈥檚 not expected to announce for president until mid-June, he鈥檚 effectively already running. On Wednesday, he that he was running, then quickly reversed himself.聽

At the heart of his campaign lies a paradox: the great blessing and the great burden of the Bush name. 聽

His father鈥檚 presidency (1989-1993) is remembered fondly by the general public, though anti-tax conservatives still remember his breaking of the 鈥渘o new taxes鈥� pledge. Bush鈥檚 brother鈥檚 presidency 聽(2001-2009) gets lower marks. Still, Jeb Bush benefits tremendously from the political network his family opens up for him. He could easily out-raise the rest of the GOP field in the early going. He has also assembled an A-list team of advisers.

But his brother鈥檚 legacy poses a particular burden, not just Iraq but also the economic crisis at the end of his tenure. And Jeb appears unwilling to throw brother George under the bus. He even referred to his brother recently, at a private event, as an adviser on the Middle East, a comment he didn鈥檛 disown in his . 聽

The real story, in fact, out of Bush鈥檚 interviews with Kelly and Mr. Hannity may be that he seemed to go out of his way to defend his brother on Iraq. 聽聽聽

鈥淣ews flash for the world,鈥� Bush told Kelly. 鈥淚f they鈥檙e trying to find places where there鈥檚 space between me and my brother, this may not be one of those.鈥�

To Hannity, Bush said this: 鈥淭he simple fact is, mistakes were made, as they always are in life.鈥�

George W. Bush seems acutely aware of the liability he poses to his brother. Last month, at an event in Chicago, he practically gave Jeb permission to disown his record.

鈥淗e doesn't need to defend me,鈥� the second President Bush said, .

He also acknowledged his mother鈥檚 famous comment from 2013 鈥� 鈥淗aven鈥檛 we had enough Bushes?鈥� 鈥� and said: 鈥淭hat鈥檚 why you won鈥檛 see me out there鈥� on the campaign trail.

If nothing else, it鈥檚 already clear that Jeb Bush won鈥檛 sail to the Republican nomination as his father and brother did back in the day. The theory that he could clear the GOP field by vacuuming up establishment money has already proved false. He leads (barely) in national polls of Republican candidates, but hasn鈥檛 broken out of the pack. In any case, it鈥檚 too soon to put much stock in polls.

On Tuesday, Bush advisers acknowledged that he is skipping the on Aug. 8, a beauty contest that contains no upside for him, as it favors candidates who appeal to the social conservative base of the Iowa GOP. That鈥檚 a smart move, analysts say.

Bush鈥檚 real challenge is to present himself as a Republican of the future, not a man burdened by his family鈥檚 past. With fresh faces like his former prot茅g茅, Sen. Marco Rubio (R) of Florida, and Gov. Scott Walker (R) of Wisconsin gaining positive notice in the early going, the battle is joined. But so far, Bush is still stumbling over the past.

Some analysts suggest that Bush may be playing a completely different game 鈥� that he is just going to say what he thinks, stay true to his family, and let the chips fall where they may. Perhaps this is his way of running 鈥渏oyfully,鈥� as he described his possible campaign . 鈥淟et Jeb be Jeb鈥� is how Bush adviser Mike Murphy described the philosophy to last December.

Perhaps this brand of political authenticity will catch hold among Republican voters 鈥� and along with it, some of the Bush views that don鈥檛 fit standard Republican orthodoxy at the moment. Among those are support for 鈥渓egalization鈥� of undocumented immigrants and the Common Core education reforms, as well as an unwillingness to sign anti-tax pledges.

If Bush somehow manages to bend the GOP in his direction, he could represent the party鈥檚 future. But that鈥檚 a big 鈥渋f.鈥澛�