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Pentagon signals 'acute' problems in Afghanistan, even as US cuts forces

The presence of Al Qaeda and Taliban safe havens in Pakistan remains unresolved 鈥 and may be beyond the capacity of the US military to fix, a new report to Congress concludes.

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Charles Dharapak/AP
President Obama addresses troops at Bagram Air Field, Afghanistan, May 2, 2012.

Largely overshadowed by President Obama鈥檚 trip to Afghanistan, the Pentagon Tuesday released a congressionally mandated report on the progress of the war that acknowledged a 鈥渞esilient鈥 Taliban and pointed to 鈥渓ong-term and acute challenges" for a US military whose presence on the ground will decline considerably in many of the most violent areas of the country in the months to come.

Though the report emphasizes some security improvements, plenty of problems that the US military has been grappling with for years remain unresolved. Many are simply 鈥渂eyond the capability of the US military to address 鈥 and beyond the capacity of the military to fix,鈥 says Brian Jenkins, a former special forces officer and senior adviser to the president of the RAND Corp., a defense consulting firm that works closely with the Pentagon. 听

First among these, US defense officials widely agree, are the Taliban and Al Qaeda safe havens in Pakistan, from which the insurgent fighters who battle US troops 鈥渙perate with impunity,鈥 the report notes. These remain among 鈥渢he biggest risks to the process of turning security gains into a durable and sustainable Afghanistan.鈥

The Pentagon has for years touted 鈥渟ecurity gains,鈥 while noting that they are 鈥渇ragile and reversible.鈥 This week鈥檚 report, which is due to Congress every six months, is no different, acknowledging that insurgents 鈥渨ill likely attempt to regain lost ground and influence this spring and summer through assassinations, intimidation, high-profile attacks, and the emplacement of improvised explosive devices (IEDs).

At the same time, the US military is in less of a position to handle such counterattacks. Today, there are some 88,000 US troops in Afghanistan, down from 101,000 last year. That number will decline by another 20,000 by year鈥檚 end.

In the violent southern Afghan province of Helmand, the US Marines are slated to withdraw more than 60 percent of their forces from the country by October, dropping from 18,000 troops to less than 7,000.

There is, too, the problem that affects and upsets most Afghans: 鈥渨idespread corruption" that limits the effectiveness of the government. When Afghan officials rip off average citizens, it also bolsters the cause of insurgents, who use such cases to recruit followers.

But the capacity of the US military to grapple with these issues remains limited. While the mere presence of foreign forces in Afghanistan 鈥減rovides a great deal of economic benefit to the country, on the other hand, those kinds of sums of money also create enormous opportunities for corruption,鈥 says Mr. Jenkins.听

On the bright side, the report notes a decline between October and March in 鈥渆nemy-initiated attacks鈥 after five consecutive years in which these attacks 鈥渋ncreased sharply.鈥 In the past, to explain these increases, US military officials tended to note that those attacks were up because US troops were 鈥渢aking the fight to the enemy,鈥 and were engaged in intense operations.

The decrease in attacks could also point to fewer troops on the ground as well. As US troop strength decreases, however, the number of Afghan national security forces (ANSF) trained continues to grow. That said, ANSF forces are still not yet responsible for more than half of of the Afghan population. As of September 2011, no Afghan police unit 鈥 and only one Afghan Army unit 鈥 had been deemed ready to operate independently, even with the help of advisers.

Those figures have increased in the past six months, but it remains to be seen, analysts say, whether they can hold these gains long after US troops leave.

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