Eye on the (peace) prize: Why Trump might show more patience with Gaza diplomacy
-
Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
| Washington
By now, the world has grown accustomed to a U.S. president who runs hot and cold on the international conflicts facing him, his interest in addressing them waxing and waning as prospects for quick resolution ebb.
Russia鈥檚 war in Ukraine 鈥� once a daily focus of President Donald Trump鈥檚 this year that now seems to have largely fallen off his radar screen 鈥� is one example.
But the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza appears to be maintaining a tight hold on the mercurial president鈥檚 attention.
Why We Wrote This
Negotiating the thorny obstacles to President Donald Trump鈥檚 peace plan for Gaza could take time. But with so much riding on ending the war, not least a chance to succeed where others have failed and perhaps earn a Nobel, he鈥檚 likely to show patience.
As negotiators for Israel and Hamas sit down in Egypt for indirect talks that many say represent the best opportunity yet for bringing the two-year war to a close, Mr. Trump is demonstrating a focus on the conflict and offering daily clues as to why this one, for him, is different.
For one thing, a president who considers himself the world鈥檚 greatest dealmaker is obsessed with the challenge of delivering not just a ceasefire and the release of the hostages that Hamas holds in Gaza, some diplomats and foreign policy experts say.
Grander still is Mr. Trump鈥檚 ambition 鈥� based on the 20-point plan carrying his name 鈥� to deliver peace to a conflict that American presidents have tried and failed to resolve for three-quarters of a century.
鈥淚t looks like you could have peace in the Middle East for the first time in 3,000 years,鈥� Mr. Trump declared to reporters on the White House lawn Saturday. 鈥淲e鈥檙e going to have more than Gaza. We鈥檙e going to have Gaza plus peace,鈥� he added. 鈥淚鈥檓 very honored to be part of that.鈥�
An eye on the Nobel
Moreover, the war in Gaza offers the perfect combination of opportunities prone to sustaining the attention of businessman Donald Trump, some analysts say.
鈥淧resident Trump sees this as the moment to achieve a ceasefire, ensure the return of the hostages, and bring about what he calls a lasting peace where others have failed,鈥� says Rajan Menon, a senior research fellow at Columbia University鈥檚 Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies.
鈥淏ut beyond that, he sees this crucial moment increasing his chances for winning the Nobel Peace Prize and clearing the way for the massive economic development plan he has in mind for Gaza,鈥� he adds. 鈥淭hat plan would launch at a time when he and his family have substantially expanded their business dealings in the Middle East.鈥�
President Trump has been nominated for this year鈥檚 Nobel Peace Prize, which is set to be announced Friday. On Tuesday, he released a letter he wrote to a group of Israeli hostages鈥� families for the nomination.
Yet, even with all the extraordinary factors underpinning Mr. Trump鈥檚 interest in Gaza, negotiating of the key sticking points standing in the way of a final deal are sure to test the president鈥檚 patience, analysts say.
On Monday, Mr. Trump was admonishing negotiators for the parties to 鈥渁ct fast鈥� 鈥� even before his own team headed by special adviser Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner had traveled to Cairo for the talks. He conferred with the pair on Tuesday morning at the White House.
鈥淚t鈥檚 all tied鈥� to Gaza
鈥淲e鈥檙e certainly closer to a deal on Gaza than ever before, and that鈥檚 what鈥檚 allowed the president to take a victory lap as the parties gather in Egypt to hammer things out,鈥� says David Schenker, a former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs during the first Trump administration.
鈥淏ut the 20-point plan is quite ambitious, it really encompasses a long list of very complex issues that we shouldn鈥檛 expect can be worked out in a matter of days,鈥� adds Mr. Schenker, now a senior fellow in Arab politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 鈥淚 agree it鈥檚 the moment to seize the momentum, but there鈥檚 also the real danger of going down rabbit holes.鈥�
President Trump is likely to find more patience for concluding a Gaza peace plan because so much rides on ending the war, Mr. Schenker adds: from further progress on the Abraham Accords normalizing relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors, to the long-sought redeployment of U.S. forces from the region.
鈥淚t鈥檚 all tied to the Gaza peace plan,鈥� Mr. Schenker says, 鈥渁nd everyone understands that.鈥�
The White House appeared to acknowledge on Monday that the full peace plan is not likely to be hammered out in a matter of a few days, as Mr. Trump suggested over the weekend. Instead, the thinking seems to be that quick agreement on the release of hostages and a ceasefire could provide the 鈥渕omentum鈥� to solving other issues.
鈥淚t鈥檚 very important ... that we get this done quickly so that we can get some momentum, get the hostages out, and then move to the next part of this, which is really ensuring that we can create a lasting, durable peace in Gaza and ensure that Gaza is a place that no longer threatens the security of Israel or the United States,鈥� White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a briefing.
Range of complex issues
A big question is whether Hamas would agree to a hostage release without other guarantees 鈥� for example, that Israel would not simply resume the war once the hostages are out.
鈥淧art of Hamas鈥� 鈥榶es, but鈥� to Trump鈥檚 plan is their very real concern that without some specific and binding guarantees in place, [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu would take the win of the hostages鈥� release and continue the war,鈥� says Dr. Menon.
Agreeing on a plan for the hostages鈥� release will be hard enough. The Trump plan calls for all hostages to be released within 72 hours of a deal. But locating and securing all of them 鈥� including the bodies of deceased hostages 鈥� could stretch into weeks, some experts warn.
But as complex as the hostages鈥� release could be, it might pale in comparison with the complexity of other outstanding issues. Those include: Hamas鈥� disarmament, Israel鈥檚 withdrawal, and the future governance of Gaza.
Any one of those could take many days or even weeks to resolve, some experts say.
Such timelines would appear to be at odds with Mr. Trump鈥檚 calls for 鈥渁cting fast鈥� and concluding a deal 鈥渋n a matter of days.鈥�
Dr. Menon says he doesn鈥檛 anticipate the president losing interest, given everything that鈥檚 at stake. But Dr. Menon adds that if talks bog down in the complexities, Mr. Trump could lose patience.
鈥淭he question now is who he loses patience with first, Hamas or Israel?鈥� Dr. Menon says.
Mr. Netanyahu almost certainly has the edge for avoiding Mr. Trump鈥檚 full wrath, experts say.
But Mr. Schenker recalls how Israel鈥檚 missile attack on Hamas negotiators in Qatar in September was a 鈥渨atershed moment鈥� for Mr. Trump, along with the more recent White House leak to the media of the president鈥檚 exasperation with Mr. Netanyahu that he鈥檚 鈥渁lways so [bleeping] negative.鈥� Both should serve as warnings to the Israeli leader that he can鈥檛 push too far, he says.
Still, the key to Mr. Trump鈥檚 patience with a complex peace process is going to be his sense that things are moving forward toward the final prize.
鈥淲hether it takes 48 hours or starts to stretch out into days,鈥� Mr. Schenker says, 鈥渋f there鈥檚 a sense that there鈥檚 progress, then I think even for President Trump, the amount of time it鈥檚 taking matters less.鈥�
