Stronger NATO, more decisive EU: What Putin鈥檚 war hath wrought
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
| WASHINGTON
When a pro-NATO group in Finland began circulating a petition last week demanding a referendum on whether the traditionally non-aligned country should join the U.S.-led transatlantic defense alliance, the response was overwhelming.
The 50,000 signatures required to prompt a referendum debate in parliament were obtained in a matter of hours in a country of only 5.5 million.
The referendum fervor was reflected in a poll released Monday by Finland鈥檚 state broadcaster Yle. For the first time in decades of asking Finns the same question, a majority of those polled 鈥� 53% 鈥� said they favored joining NATO. Just a month ago the Helsingen Sanomat newspaper put that number at less than 30%.
Why We Wrote This
Vladimir Putin didn鈥檛 want Ukraine in NATO. He may see Finland and Sweden join instead. Their shift is over more than just security. It also reflects a desire to uphold values like freedom and democracy.
What caused what former Finnish Prime Minister Alex Stubb called a 鈥渉istoric shift鈥�?
In a word, Russia.
鈥淚t鈥檚 quite straightforward, actually. It鈥檚 the Russian aggression on Ukraine that鈥檚 behind this,鈥� says Hanna Ojanen, an expert in European security integration at Finland鈥檚 University of Tampere.
鈥淧eople already worried about [Russia] abstractly, and placed it somewhere among Finland鈥檚 many threats,鈥� she says. But now, with Ukraine standing alone against its powerful neighbor, 鈥減eople understand what it means even if you do have a strong partnership with NATO but are not a member,鈥� she adds. 鈥淭here will be no NATO troops coming to defend you.鈥�
The surging interest in NATO among Finns is just one example of how Russian President Vladimir Putin may be getting the opposite of the retreat of NATO and the weakening of European and transatlantic unity that had appeared to be central aims of his war on Ukraine.
Mr. Putin has worked for years to undermine Europe鈥檚 collective institutions, especially NATO but also the European Union. Both have expanded eastward as Central and Eastern European countries increasingly looked westward for models of security and prosperity 鈥� as well as values like democracy, civil liberties, and human rights.
EU: Ukraine is 鈥渙ne of us鈥�
But by unleashing a war and invading a sovereign state in the middle of Europe, Mr. Putin is accomplishing the opposite. Not only is NATO expansion on the table in a way it hasn鈥檛 been in years, but also the usually slow-moving and bureaucratic EU is showing new vigor: extending $500 million in military assistance to Ukraine in what is a first to a fellow European nation.
Sounding almost as if she were addressing Mr. Putin directly, the EU鈥檚 chief executive, Ursula von der Leyen, described Ukraine in a speech last week as 鈥渙ne of us, and we want them in the European Union.鈥�
For many officials and regional experts, Mr. Putin has 鈥渕iscalculated鈥� and is unwittingly uniting Europe and solidifying transatlantic ties.
鈥淭his war has essentially been undertaken by Russia to affect the trajectory of Ukraine and prevent it from moving farther and farther West,鈥� says Rajan Menon, an expert in post-Soviet states and director of the grand strategy program at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank promoting restraint in U.S. military engagement. 鈥淏ut from what we鈥檙e seeing from some European leaders and institutions, that may have backfired.鈥�
Another voice in the 鈥淧utin miscalculated鈥� chorus: President Joe Biden.
鈥淣ot only is NATO more unified, look what鈥檚 going on in terms of Finland, look at what鈥檚 going on in terms of Sweden, look what鈥檚 going on in other countries,鈥� the president told social media influencer Brian Tyler Cohen in an interview last week.
Indeed Sweden is another case in point. Long an adherent of the idea that it was better off remaining outside any military alliances, Sweden is mirroring its close defense partner Finland and leaning increasingly toward seeking NATO membership.
Finland, Sweden at NATO gathering
In part to underscore the reinvigorated transatlantic ties, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken attended a meeting of NATO foreign ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels Friday, before moving on to planned stops in the Baltic states and Eastern Europe.
The State Department noted that the foreign ministers of Finland and Sweden would attend the NATO meeting. Finland, which shares an 800-mile-long border with Russia, fought two wars against聽the Soviet Union during World War II before declaring neutrality. Sweden remained neutral during World War II, and hasn鈥檛 been at war on its soil for more than 200 years.
Much of 鈥渢he big shift鈥� in Sweden鈥檚 thinking has come just in recent weeks, says Magnus 海角大神sson, an associate professor in defense strategy at the Swedish Defense University in Stockholm.
鈥淭he greatest driver of this is Vladimir Putin himself,鈥� he says. 鈥淗is intent is to make Swedes afraid of joining NATO, but the exact opposite is happening in public opinion.鈥�
A poll published Friday by Aftonbladet newspaper showed that for the first time, a majority of Swedes favor NATO membership. Support for joining rose to 51%, up 9 points from a survey by the same pollster, Demoskop Institute, one month ago.
Other polls have found the biggest shift is among once-predominant 鈥渦ndecideds鈥� who have swung in favor of NATO membership. And that can be directly attributed to Russia鈥檚 week-old assault on Ukraine, Dr. 海角大神sson says.
Swedes have long been content with the country鈥檚 outside-the-tent relationship with the transatlantic alliance, he says. But the war 鈥� and stepped-up Russian threats against Sweden, including the incursion Wednesday of four Russian fighter jets into Swedish airspace 鈥� is a reminder that comes at a cost.
鈥淲hen events are taking everyone back to the guarantee of Article 5鈥� 鈥� the NATO charter provision on members鈥� collective defense 鈥� 鈥測ou realize just what the cost is of not being at the members鈥� table,鈥� he says.
Perhaps most striking for Dr. 海角大神sson is how public opinion is percolating up and affecting the country鈥檚 political leadership. The governing Social Democrats have been 鈥渄ead against鈥� NATO membership, he says, 鈥渂ut over the last week we鈥檝e been hearing Social Democrats saying, 鈥榃e need to rethink our relationship with NATO.鈥� It鈥檚 amazing.鈥�
鈥淥n the side of democracy鈥�
While the Nordic swing favoring NATO membership may be largely a practical matter of national security, experts like Dr. 海角大神sson say underlying factors, such as a desire to uphold long-held principles and ideals like political freedoms, should not be discounted.
鈥淲hat we鈥檙e seeing is the strengthening of a transatlantic unity that is based on the fundamental ideas at the root of our lifestyle,鈥� he says. 鈥淪wedes really understand that the freedom and liberty we enjoy in Europe is very much dependent on our ties to the United States.鈥�
Tampere University鈥檚 Dr. Ojanen says that the 鈥渧ery down-to-earth鈥� Finnish people would normally see matters of defense 鈥渋n very concrete terms.鈥�
鈥淚deals would not be the first thing people in Finland would talk about,鈥� she says. 鈥淏ut if it really came to a point where democracy was threatened, then it would have a huge impact. It becomes more important,鈥� she adds, 鈥渢o show if you are on the side of democracy or not.鈥�
Indeed, it is the way Russia鈥檚 war in Ukraine has come to be seen as a threat to European democracy and freedom that is at the heart of the unprecedented actions from the EU 鈥� the economic and political community of which both Finland and Sweden are members.
鈥淭his is a watershed moment for the EU,鈥� says Sven Biscop, director of the Europe and the World Program at Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations in Brussels.
Noting the EU 鈥渉as never faced a situation like this before,鈥� he says the Ukraine war presents an opportunity for the EU to emerge as a key player safeguarding Europe鈥檚 security.
Citing Sunday鈥檚 decision by the EU to provide Ukraine with military aid, Dr. Biscop says the EU is showing it will fight back against Mr. Putin鈥檚 attacks on European institutions.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a realization that if you want to be a geopolitical player,鈥� he says, 鈥渢hese are the kinds of things you are going to have to do.鈥�
