NATO鈥檚 balancing act: Deter a militant Russia without provoking a fight
| Brussels
As Russian forces invaded Ukraine last week to discourage the former Soviet republic聽鈥� and any other countries that might be watching聽鈥� from joining NATO, the Western alliance鈥檚 leaders redoubled their efforts to avert inadvertent hostilities that could lead to World War III.
Accomplishing this goal involves a tricky balancing act of showing the resolve to counter Russian President Vladimir Putin鈥檚 aggression while also trying to tamp down tensions following his veiled threats to use nuclear force against nations that 鈥渋nterfere鈥� with his offensive.
Western leaders are endeavoring to do this through a combination of 鈥渢ripwire鈥� troops and clear messaging: Even as they announced a historic deployment of forces to Eastern Europe, NATO leaders assured Mr. Putin they will not venture onto Ukrainian soil.聽
Why We Wrote This
With Ukraine and Russia exchanging fire, it becomes more important than ever that NATO both signals the Kremlin that it is not an aggressor and deters further westward advance by Russian forces.
Alliance soldiers arriving at the easternmost border of NATO territory are being given access to deconfliction channels and technology designed to keep them from getting into accidental dust-ups. The goal is to avoid having to invoke Article 5, in which NATO allies are duty-bound to come to one another鈥檚 defense.
Preventing 鈥渟pillover鈥�
Avoiding accidental NATO-Russia run-ins starts with underscoring allied red lines, so that Mr. Putin doesn鈥檛 get any ideas about venturing farther west than Ukraine.
To put an exclamation mark on their vow that the alliance will defend 鈥渆very inch鈥� of its territory, roughly 14,000 U.S. troops are deploying to Eastern Europe on what鈥檚 known in Pentagon parlance as an 鈥渁ssure and deter鈥� mission. Some will serve in the NATO Response Force, which is being mobilized for the first time in alliance history.
They will be led by a NATO group called the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force. The troops will be bolstered by a host of high-tech weapons, including half a dozen U.S. F-35 stealth fighter jets bound for Estonia, Lithuania, and Romania, which will host two each.
The goal of these forces is not to engage with Russian troops聽鈥� as defense officials have repeatedly emphasized聽鈥� but to prevent 鈥渟pillover fighting鈥� and 鈥渁ny misunderstanding that we are not ready to protect and defend all allies,鈥� as NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg put it last week.
At the same time, NATO commanders have reached out to Russian forces to 鈥渄o everything we can to ensure deconfliction,鈥� Mr. Stoltenberg said.
One particular risk of miscommunication lies on the Black Sea, where NATO and Russian naval forces are operating.
There, the small, nearly uninhabited Snake Island, home to a Ukrainian military base recently attacked by Russian ships, offers a case study in complexity, says Iulia-Sabina Joja, director of the Frontier Europe Initiative at the Middle East Institute.
The island was the subject of a border dispute between Ukraine and Romania. International courts ruled in Ukraine鈥檚 favor, but much of the maritime area around the island remains the territory of Romania, a NATO member. The issue illustrates 鈥渉ow risky and close these possible confrontations could be,鈥� says Ms. Joja,聽who formerly served at NATO and as an adviser to the Romanian president.
It doesn鈥檛 help that Russia has engaged in GPS 鈥渟poofing鈥� in the Black Sea, subtly changing ships鈥� navigation coordinates. Russia can also jam GPS receivers. To counter these contingencies, U.S. Space Command said last week that its units are working with U.S. European Command in the region on technological backstops.
Showing restraint
In all of this, the telegraphing of the Western alliance鈥檚 intent is critical to avoid any misinterpretation of its troop movements by Mr. Putin聽鈥� and by the troops themselves.
An illustration of just how the Pentagon is doing this came at a press briefing hours after the invasion began, when a dogged reporter asked repeatedly if troops in Poland could potentially be drawn into fighting in Ukraine. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e not going to be accidentally drawn into Ukraine,鈥� Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said, with emphasis as much for international as for domestic consumption.
It is a point Pentagon officials have stressed nonstop, and a clear indication of command to the ranks. It also reinforces expectations NATO leaders have for its troops on the border. This is particularly important given that many of them are young and from countries where historic enmity toward Russia could encourage rash behavior that runs the risk of escalation.
On this front, so far, so good, says Elisabeth Braw, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and a former senior fellow at the Royal United Service Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London. Polish troops have been barraged with disarmed rockets, blinded with lasers, and even pelted with rocks by soldiers across the border in Belarus, a Russian ally.
鈥淗ow can you accurately assess whether what鈥檚 coming your way is live fire or empty shot when you鈥檙e a young Polish soldier?鈥� she adds. 鈥淏ut they鈥檝e shown incredible restraint, and clearly that鈥檚 their intent.鈥�
A boost to defense spending
Beyond military miscalculations leading to accidental war, the miscommunication challenge in the months and years to come will involve identifying how NATO failed to discourage Mr. Putin from invading Ukraine in the first place聽鈥� and how now to prevent tragic loss of life.
Some advocate for a return to old defense postures as the new way ahead. 鈥淚 was wrong in my forecast that Putin would not launch an invasion,鈥� says AEI鈥檚 Frederick Kagan, an architect of the surge in Iraq and long a barometer for hawkish thinking.
Since the end of the Cold War, NATO鈥檚 boundary 鈥渉as been like a solid wall that no one will cross because the consequences of doing that are so clear.鈥� Mr. Putin鈥檚 actions in Ukraine 鈥渟hould eliminate any thought in our minds about what we think Putin will and won鈥檛 do.鈥� They should also dramatically boost military budgets for the democratically minded, he adds.
And that鈥檚 precisely what鈥檚 happening now. 鈥淚n a very dramatic and tragic way this [war in Ukraine] has changed the equation鈥� in Europe. 鈥淭hose who were sitting on the sidelines, or who had adopted a wait-and-see approach鈥� toward Moscow, are now increasing defense spending and mobilizing troops, notes Ian Lesser, vice president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
Indeed, the NATO allies may yet impose penalties on Mr. Putin that ultimately prove he鈥檚 the one who has miscalculated, he says. 鈥淭he net result of all this will be a lot more NATO capability facing Russia in the years ahead,鈥� Dr. Lesser adds. 鈥淚鈥檓 not sure that鈥檚 what Putin anticipated.鈥�
