海角大神

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson鈥檚 statement in South Korea Friday that military action against an increasingly threatening North Korea is 鈥渙n the table鈥� was rattling 鈥� and perhaps that was the intent.

With Mr. Tillerson set for talks in Beijing Saturday, the point of raising the prospect of using force to address the North鈥檚 advancing nuclear threat may have been as much to send a signal to the region as anything else.

That message 鈥� that the new US administration intends to be more aggressive and won鈥檛 just stand by as Pyongyang advances its nuclear weaponry 鈥� was intended perhaps as much as a discussion opener with Chinese officials, some regional experts say, as it was to put the North on notice.

鈥淧resumably this was directed at the Chinese as much as anyone else,鈥� says James Walsh, an expert in nuclear security issues at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge.

鈥淭here鈥檚 this Washington consensus that we need to threaten the Chinese so they get on board with pressuring North Korea more,鈥� he adds. 鈥淚 just don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 going to work.鈥�

To be sure, Tillerson offered plenty of caveats to the eventual use of force, listing the range of options the US has for getting tough with the North before things would ever come to blows.

鈥淐ertainly we do not want for things to get to a military conflict,鈥� the chief US diplomat said. 鈥淲e are exploring a new range of security and diplomatic measures,鈥� he said, adding that 鈥渨e have many, many steps we can take before we get to鈥� military action 鈥� steps he said the US hopes 鈥渨ill persuade North Korea to take a different course of action.鈥�

Tillerson may have also wanted to establish the fact that there鈥檚 a new sheriff in Washington, in case anyone needed a reminder. 鈥淟et me be very clear 鈥� the policy of strategic patience has ended,鈥� he said.

Tillerson was referring to former President Obama鈥檚 policy of ratcheting up pressures on the North 鈥� including the use of economic sanctions and trade restrictions aimed at hobbling Pyongyang鈥檚 nuclear and missile programs 鈥� while waiting for the regime of Kim Jong-un to collapse.

Tweet of support

As if to underscore that point, President Trump chimed in Friday morning with a tweet: 鈥淣orth Korea is behaving very badly, they have been 鈥榩laying鈥� the United States for years,鈥� he wrote, adding, 鈥淐hina has done little to help!鈥�

Less different from the Obama administration was Tillerson鈥檚 rejection of direct negotiations with the North 鈥� something the Chinese have been trying to get the US to return to for years. The last formal negotiations between the US and North Korea occurred toward the end of the George W. Bush administration.

For the US to return to the negotiating table with Pyongyang, Tillerson said, the North would have to first 鈥済ive up their weapons of mass destruction. Only then will we be prepared to engage them in talks.鈥�

Trump, who was advised by a departing President Obama that North Korea was likely to be his first national security challenge, may indeed have sent Tillerson off to Asia to advise the Chinese that the US can do things it doesn鈥檛 like if Beijing doesn鈥檛 do more to pressure Mr. Kim to give up his nuclear weapons.

The US is already deploying the THAAD missile defense system to South Korea, which China considers to be an unfriendly and destabilizing action. And US officials continue to weigh so-called secondary sanctions against Chinese banks and other entities that continue to do business with the North.

China not easily swayed

But MIT鈥檚 Dr. Walsh, who has years of experience in diplomatic efforts to address North Korea鈥檚 nuclear program, says he sees little likelihood the Chinese will buckle to US pressure.

鈥淭he question is, what costs can we impose on China that would somehow be equal in weight to their fears of having a failed nuclear state on their border?鈥� Walsh says. 鈥淲e can wag our finger at them and tell them they鈥檇 better shape up, but when it comes down to it we simply can鈥檛 threaten them into taking action.

鈥淭hey already think North Korea is a big problem,鈥� he adds, 鈥渂ut I think they鈥檇 take some sanctions on Chinese banks over a failed nuclear state on their border.鈥�

Others agree, saying China is unlikely to deviate from its position that the ball at this point is in the US鈥檚 court 鈥� to play ball with Pyongyang, not to bomb it.

鈥淭he Chinese will express their dissatisfaction with North Korea to Tillerson, but in the end they will simply repeat their views and their refusal to change their approach as a result of the North鈥檚 behavior,鈥� says David Lampton, director of China studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.

鈥淭hey will state once again and for the new administration that the major problem is the US unwillingness to negotiate [with Pyongyang],鈥� he says 鈥� 鈥渁nd they will repeat their view as to the undesirability of applying military force to North Korea.鈥�

Military consequences

Not that anyone is portraying military action against the North as a cakewalk. Virtually no one believes the US or anyone else could mount a surprise attack on the North that could take out its nuclear and missile installations while also preempting counterattacks. Most experts assume that at least part of Seoul, the South Korean capital, would be devastated by artillery and other reprisals, while the 25,000 US troops in South Korea would surely be targeted.

On the other hand, doing nothing while the North perfects an ICBM capable of reaching the continental US doesn鈥檛 seem to be an option, either.

Walsh says he understands that the North鈥檚 continuing nuclear tests and missile launches are causing anxiety both in the region and in the US, but he says he still finds this to be a curious moment for the US to come out sounding intransigent and ready to use force with the North.

Noting that the Trump administration is in the midst of a policy review on North Korea, and that South Korea鈥檚 direction on the issue is in doubt until presidential elections in May, Walsh says that in his view this was a moment to lay things out with allies and partners, but otherwise to keep quiet.

鈥淲e know North Korea is listening closely to everything that鈥檚 said and they are going to feel like they need to take countermeasures,鈥� he says. 鈥淪o if you鈥檙e at a place where you鈥檙e not sure what you鈥檙e going to do, maybe it makes sense to say less rather than more.鈥�