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Amid big uncertainties, Syria truce deal might mean some relief for civilians

A truce allowing aid to reach trapped populations could forestall a looming humanitarian disaster in Syria. But huge challenges endure.

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Michael Dalder/Reuters
(from left) Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, US Secretary of State John Kerry, and Staffan de Mistura, UN special envoy for Syria, attend a news conference after the International Syria Support Group meeting in Munich, Germany, Feb. 12, 2016. A cessation of hostilities in Syria was announced early Friday, to take effect in a week.

Despite the many questions swirling around the cessation of hostilities in Syria that was announced early Friday 鈥 including whether the truce will even take hold 鈥 the plan offers a glimmer of hope for a half million Syrians at risk of going hungry.

Just hours after the deal鈥檚 announcement, the United Nations said it would be ready to start delivering food, water, and medicine to hundreds of thousands of Syrians in besieged pockets of the country 鈥渨ithin 24 hours鈥 鈥 provided conditions on the ground permit.

A truce allowing aid to reach trapped populations could forestall a looming humanitarian disaster, particularly around the embattled city of Aleppo. And it could put off a second huge wave of refugees that is threatening, as a result of recently stepped-up violence, to spill into Turkey and on to Europe.

Still, the truce is not likely to provide substantial relief to Syrians or halt the punishing violence that has sent more than 4 million Syrians fleeing their country, some regional experts say.

鈥淭he agreement gives the illusion of doing something about the humanitarian catastrophe in Syria, but it really doesn鈥檛 do much more than apply a band-aid to a sucking chest wound,鈥 says James Phillips, senior research fellow for Middle Eastern affairs at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. 鈥淎nd it certainly does nothing about the root causes of the Syrian people鈥檚 immense suffering.鈥

The temporary 鈥渃essation of hostilities鈥 was reached by the United States and Russia on the margins of a security conference in Munich, Germany. It was agreed to by 15 other countries involved in the Syrian conflict and would not actually take effect for another week.

Despite Secretary of State John Kerry鈥檚 declaration that support for the deal was 鈥渦nanimous,鈥 critical actors in the conflict have not yet pronounced their support.

Perhaps the key factor will be how Russia translates what Secretary Kerry acknowledged is so far only 鈥渨ords on paper鈥 into action on the ground.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov agreed that Russia would cease its intense bombing campaign 鈥 a campaign that Western leaders have criticized as a 鈥渟corched earth鈥 effort striking moderate rebels and civilians and aimed primarily at assisting forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad. But Russia says it will continue under the truce to target 鈥渢errorists鈥 鈥 terminology Mr. Assad and the Russians have used to describe all Assad opponents.

British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond hinted in comments after the agreement was reached that what Mr. Lavrov signs on to is not always Russia鈥檚 final word, and that all would depend on how Russian President Vladimir Putin interprets the agreement.

The agreement 鈥渨ill only succeed if there is a major change of behavior by the Syrian regime and its supporters,鈥 Mr. Hammond said, adding, 鈥淩ussia in particular claims to be attacking terrorist groups and yet consistently bombs non-extremist groups, including civilians.鈥

One factor likely to determine Mr. Putin鈥檚 treatment of the truce will be whether he considers Assad鈥檚 position strong enough to enter 鈥 and weather 鈥 suspended peace talks. Under Friday鈥檚 agreement, those are to resume by Feb. 25.

鈥淭he Obama administration seems to have bought the Russians鈥 claim that they are not wedded to keeping Assad in power, but I think the bombing campaign that has given the regime new life is the proof that the Russians aren鈥檛 going to let up on any rebel group that doesn鈥檛 accept Assad as the central leader in Syria,鈥 says Mr. Phillips of the Heritage Foundation.

For its part, the US will continue its fight against the Islamic State in Syria, regardless of the status of a truce, US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said on Friday.

Despite Kerry鈥檚 claims of 鈥渦nanimous鈥 support for the truce, rebel groups supported by the US, Europe, and a number of Middle Eastern Sunni powers said Friday that they were not yet on board and would need to decide their position in the coming days.

Several rebel leaders voiced concerns that the truce allows Russia substantial leeway for continuing its bombing campaign.

Phillips says they have good reason to be skeptical. 鈥淩ussia says it will continue airstrikes against ISIS and al-Nusra Front,鈥 he says, using an acronym for the Islamic State and also citing Al Qaeda鈥檚 chief affiliate in Syria. 鈥淏ut they have claimed that all along, when in fact about 70 percent of their strikes have been against more moderate groups, including some supported by the US.鈥

Others say Western diplomacy in recent days is to a large extent a measure of rising fears over the impact that the Syrian conflict and the resulting refugee crisis are having in Europe.

鈥淚f Europe does not gain control of its external borders in a very short period of time, there鈥檚 going to be greater instability in Europe,鈥 says Heather Conley, director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Noting that an additional 60,000 refugees arrived on Europe鈥檚 shores in January 鈥 鈥渢he coldest month鈥 鈥 Ms. Conley says that by spring, another rising tide of refugees 鈥渃ould become existential for Europe.鈥

The past week has also seen NATO assume a role in the eastern Mediterranean鈥檚 burgeoning refugee crisis.

The impact of the refugee flows on Europe鈥檚 cohesion is not lost on Putin, says Phillips.

The Russian leader is 鈥渉appy to pull the strings on a conflict that is having such a profound effect in Europe, especially if it might get him some relief for his intervention in Ukraine,鈥 he says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 another dimension of Putin鈥檚 cynical use of the humanitarian crisis in Syria.鈥

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