海角大神

What is left of the Syrian 鈥渕oderate鈥� opposition is deeply embittered.听As far as they are concerned,听the US and its allies have thrown them under the bus, unwilling to give them the firepower or protection necessary to听resist a resurgent Russian-backed regime now pushing into Aleppo, a critical opposition redoubt.听

鈥淔or the last year we haven鈥檛 received anything. The US is preventing everyone from supplying the opposition with weapons out of fear they will fall in the hands of Islamic State,鈥� says Bassam Hajji, a political officer in听a CIA-backed rebel group in Aleppo.

Since last week, Russian airstrikes and regime troops have cut off rebel supply lines from the Turkish border to Aleppo. Tens of thousands of city residents have fled towards the border in fear of a protracted siege, raising tensions with Turkey, a key backer of Syria鈥檚 opposition. The rebels鈥� battlefield setbacks have shone a spotlight on an apparent pullback by their international supporters ahead of failed UN-led peace talks last month to resolve Syria鈥檚 conflict.

Mr. Hajji, who spoke by phone in Turkey, says his group,听Nour al-Din al-Zinki听was听one of the few CIA-vetted factions to receive highly prized TOW guided anti-tank missiles,听which are听easy to transport and use. But the supply dried up before it could听significantly alter the balance of power on the battlefield. And that was before direct Russian military involvement in Syria. The group is听now听struggling to get anything beyond small arms and ammunition.

鈥淵ou can鈥檛 fight Russian jets and all the firepower of these foreign militias with a couple of TOWs 鈥� we don鈥檛 even have enough TOWs for the purposes of a wedding celebration,鈥� Hajji says.

The Russian-backed offensive in and around鈥� Aleppo has killed more than 500 people this month, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based organization. Since 2012, the city has been divided into a government-controlled section in the west and rebel-held areas in the east. Up to 400,000 residents in the east 鈥撎齟quivalent to the population of New Orleans 鈥撎齬isk being trapped without access to food. After three years of bombing, much of the city is already rubble; now it鈥檚 being described as Syria鈥檚 Stalingrad.听

Chris Kozak, a Syria analyst at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, says it will be difficult for the opposition to turn the tables听in and around Aleppo听barring a quick escalation from regional allies such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia.听Saudi officials have said they could send听ground troops to Syria to fight the Islamic State 鈥� a move that could also allow it to prop up听its allies. But few see this happening anytime soon since Saudi forces are already overstretched in Yemen.

Turkey听is 鈥渓ikely to consider some high risk options to this renewed offensive, including providing MANPADS and anti-aircraft systems to try and counteract the advantage Russian aircraft has given,鈥� says Mr. Kozak.听

Risk of escalation between Turkey and Russia

In the past, Turkey has called for the creation of a buffer zone along the border on humanitarian grounds. But any such intervention by Turkish forces would听probably lead to rapid escalation with Russia.听The two countries are already at odds over the downing last November by Turkey of a Russian warplane that entered its airspace.

鈥淲ithout the direct support of the US and NATO, I think (Turkish President Recep Tayyip) Erdogan will be hesitant to take such a dramatic intervention step as a direct military intervention in Syria,鈥� says Kozak. 听

One consequence is that beleaguered rebel groups are likely to deepen their collaboration with more Islamist-oriented factions seen as more effective fighting forces. These include听Al-Qaeda鈥檚 affiliate Nusra Front, which has been a tactical partner of US-backed rebels both in the north and the south.听The overlap between groups has long been contentious, as the US fears indirectly arming rebels that aren鈥檛 vetted.

Jihadists听are said to have a small presence in Aleppo City and have joined other rebel formations from the northwestern province of Idlib听to reinforce the city鈥檚 defenses.听Rebels in northern Aleppo听Province听are under massive pressure from regime forces in the south, Kurdish-led factions in the west, and the Islamic State in the east. 鈥�

While Hajji describes the听factions 鈥媔n听northern Aleppo听as strictly Free Syrian Army 鈥� what the West considers moderate rebels 鈥� he adds 鈥渆veryone has had to work with Al-Nusra鈥� at some point or another.听Rebel听commanders听argue that such alliances were born not out of ideological affinity but necessity. They blame the international community for allowing the Syrian regime to kill civilians with impunity over the past five years.听

Yasser Abdul-Rahim, a rebel commander in Aleppo Province, complained that no support is being delivered to the opposition at this time of crisis.听For the West, he had one question: 鈥淗ave you sold out the Syrian revolution?鈥�