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Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to a new 鈥渁pproach鈥� to end his country鈥檚 violence, UN special envoy Kofi Annan said Monday, adding that he would soon take the proposal to Syria鈥檚 armed opposition.

But with President Assad insisting to international media that he will accept no deal that includes his departure from power, and with the opposition adamantly opposed to any plan that includes Assad, Mr. Annan鈥檚 undisclosed breakthrough appears to be just as dead as his three-month-old six-point plan 鈥� which, he acknowledged over the weekend, 鈥渉as failed.鈥�

The failure of international diplomacy to address Syria鈥檚 grinding violence 鈥� some 14,000 Syrians have died in 16 months of turmoil, according to unofficial estimates, with about 6,000 of those deaths occurring since Annan proposed his peace plan in April 鈥� is feeding renewed criticism of the Obama administration鈥檚 Syria policy.

But even harsh critics who advocate more robust involvement by the United States say they don鈥檛 expect to see direct American intervention any time soon.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not a very good or effective policy, but I sense [the administration] will be able to maintain it until the [US presidential] election,鈥� says Elliott Abrams, who served in diplomatic roles in the George W. Bush and Reagan administrations.

Mr. Abrams, now a Middle East analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, says the Obama administration鈥檚 鈥渄o-nothing policy鈥� on Syria will be to blame when perhaps as many as 20,000 Syrians die before Assad finally falls.

But he also acknowledges that the Syrian opposition鈥檚 growing effectiveness is, in a way, making it easier for the administration to put off hard choices such as directly arming the rebels 鈥� which Abrams favors.

鈥淚f you look at their performance on July 9 and compare it to April 9, there鈥檚 obviously been improvement,鈥� Abrams says. The rebels鈥� better performance suggests they are getting arms and other equipment from somewhere, he says. 鈥淏ut with things looking like they鈥檙e going fairly well for the opposition,鈥� he adds, 鈥渢hat reduces the pressure on the administration.鈥澛犅�

But others say a combination of Annan鈥檚 inability to make a peace plan stick and Syria鈥檚 continuing violence is forcing the administration to ratchet up the indirect intervention it opted for as the Syrian crisis intensified.

鈥淪omewhere along the line this [administration] decided it was going with indirect intervention 鈥� the political warfare we鈥檙e seeing, encouraging the opposition, the signs of some form of support on the ground 鈥� and that鈥檚 what is building up here,鈥� says Jeffrey White, a defense fellow specializing in the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Mr. White favors the 鈥渄irect intervention鈥� by a coalition of the willing 鈥� including the United States 鈥� as the way to end Syria鈥檚 crisis the most rapidly and with what he says would be the least amount of bloodshed and material damage to the country. But he adds that while he sees little sign of pressure building on the administration to switch to 鈥渄irect intervention,鈥� he does believe pressure for what he calls 鈥渟econd-best鈥� indirect intervention is growing.

As a result, he says, the administration is stepping up what he calls 鈥減olitical warfare鈥� 鈥� for example, calling publicly for the Syrian military to abandon Assad, and warning those officers who don鈥檛 of 鈥渃onsequences鈥� (such as an international tribunal) down the road once Assad is out of power.

White says 鈥渟omething happened鈥� in or about May that initiated a noticeable improvement in the performance of the opposition forces. That growing effectiveness has led to speculation that the US and other Western powers are indeed arming the opposition, even though the administration maintains that the US is only providing some communications equipment and working to ensure that the arms that are being provided by some of Syria鈥檚 neighbors are not falling in the hands of Al Qaeda-affiliated terrorists.

Abrams says he hopes the US is doing more for the opposition than it is claiming publicly, if only for the role the US will want to play in a post-Assad Syria.

鈥淚f it鈥檚 the Saudis and the Qataris giving money and guns to the opposition, then it鈥檚 the Saudis and Qataris who are going to have influence when that opposition is in power,鈥� he says, 鈥渁nd the US won鈥檛 have the influence it could鈥檝e had.鈥�