海角大神

The US electorate has for months given President Obama the nod over rival Mitt Romney on handling of foreign policy, but public perceptions of Mr. Romney鈥檚 positions on international issues have recently improved 鈥� just in time for Monday night鈥檚 debate focused on foreign policy and national security.

Americans have turned increasingly negative toward China and its trade policies and have shifted in favor of a tougher approach toward Iran over the past year, according to a new Pew Research Center poll. The public's growing preference for a tougher stance toward China and Iran seems to be in sync with Romney鈥檚 harsh talk on the campaign trail about the two countries 鈥� and helps explain why he鈥檚 likely to showcase that toughness in Monday鈥檚 debate.

But the Pew Center poll also reveals a largely isolationist electorate with little appetite for US intervention in the world鈥檚 conflicts, including the fierce civil war in Syria. In that sense, the debate鈥檚 foreign-policy focus presents a potential pitfall for Romney, whose calls for a more assertive US role in the world backed by higher military spending risk turning off some voters.

鈥淭he public is decidedly more isolationist 鈥� than it has been for some time,鈥� says Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center in Washington. Although Romney 鈥渇ares much better than in previous surveys,鈥� Mr. Kohut says, the Republican鈥檚 theme of a more assertive US role in the world 鈥渋s not resonating.鈥�

The Pew poll, conducted Oct. 4-7, finds Romney and Mr. Obama running almost even on foreign policy, with 47 percent saying the president would do a better job compared with 43 percent for Romney. That represents a jump for the former Massachusetts governor, who trailed Obama by 15 percentage points in Pew鈥檚 September survey.

So what accounts for Romney鈥檚 rise in foreign policy? Kohut, a longtime analyst of public opinion, attributes some of the improvement to what he calls the 鈥渃onsistency factor鈥� 鈥� that is, the uptick corresponds with a period of general improvement in Romney鈥檚 numbers compared with Obama's across a range of issues.

But there are also specific foreign-policy issues for which Romney has either caught up with the president or now surpasses him.

First on the list is China. In March, Americans preferred the option of 鈥渂uilding a stronger relationship鈥� on economic issues with Asia鈥檚 rising giant over the option of 鈥済etting tougher.鈥� By October, preference on the two approaches 鈥� the first broadly corresponding with Obama administration policy, the second echoing the Romney stance 鈥� has largely reversed.聽

Now 42 percent of Americans say they prefer to build a relationship with China, down from 53 percent in March. Over the same months, preference for 鈥済etting tougher鈥� rose from 40 to 49 percent. That shift to 鈥済et tough" on China has occurred as Romney has repeatedly labeled Beijing a 鈥渃heater鈥� in the global trade game and has insisted, as he did at the Oct. 16 debate, that he would label China a 鈥渃urrency manipulator鈥� on Day 1 of his administration.聽

Then there is Iran. The poll finds Americans about split on which candidate would better handle the issue of Iran鈥檚 nuclear program: 45 percent choose Obama, while 44 percent choose Romney.

But the poll also finds a measurable uptick in a public preference for 鈥渢aking a firm stand鈥� with Iran; 鈥渁voiding military conflict with Iran鈥澛爄s now the priority for just over a third of respondents, down from聽41 percent earlier in the year.

At the same time, however, Americans say they want less US involvement in the Middle East and in the political upheavals sweeping the region. Driving that sense of caution is a broad skepticism about the outcome of the revolutions termed the 鈥淎rab Awakening.鈥�

After witnessing almost two years of sweeping change across the region, Americans largely and across party lines have a preference for stable regimes over democracy鈥檚 spread and the instability that can accompany it 鈥� and they are skeptical that the changes will result in significant improvement in the region.

鈥淭he public is much more dubious that the changes will lead to lasting improvements in people鈥檚 lives,鈥� Kohut says.

Americans are also broadly unenthusiastic about any form of US intervention in Syria, tending rather to support the idea that the US should not try to solve the world鈥檚 problems. But one area where a partisan divide shows up is on Libya, and in particular on the Obama administration鈥檚 handling of the terrorist attack on the consulate in Benghazi.

In an additional line of questioning conducted Oct. 12-14, Pew found Republican respondents are much more likely than Democrats 鈥� or independents 鈥� to say they are closely following the public debate over the Libya attack, and from there to say that they disapprove of the administration鈥檚 handling of the event.

Voters continue to say that international issues will have an impact on how they vote, even though Americans seem less enthusiastic than at any time since the end of the cold war about US involvement in solving the world鈥檚 problems.

In a recent survey by the Better World Campaign, three-fourths of voters said a presidential candidate鈥檚 stance on foreign policy would be 鈥渋mportant鈥� in determining their vote.

鈥淭hree of the top responses given to explain the priority they give to foreign policy are that it鈥檚 important for the US to have allies, it鈥檚 important for the US to be seen as a leader on critical international issues, and that foreign policy is important to national security,鈥� says Peter Yeo, executive director of the Better World Campaign, an organization that promotes US-United Nations cooperation on key development and global health issues.

Voters want to hear more about concerns such as how the candidates would end the war in Afghanistan, how they would address Iran鈥檚 nuclear program and relations with Israel, and how they would approach events in the Middle East, Mr. Yeo says.

Pew鈥檚 Kohut says voters do take foreign-policy issues seriously, but he suggests that those tuning into Monday鈥檚 debate will be watching not just for the candidates鈥� positions on foreign-policy issues, but also to see how they handle answering tough questions and which man comes across as the strongest leader.

鈥淭his is an election driven by domestic issues,鈥� Kohut says. 鈥淎mericans are not saying, 鈥榃e aren鈥檛 going to play a role in the world,鈥� but they are saying, 鈥榃e want a focus on home.鈥� 鈥�