How the Obama-Romney foreign-policy debate could determine the election
How important is Monday night鈥檚 foreign-policy debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney? The way things stand right now, it could determine the outcome on Election Day.
Nobody would have predicted that just a few weeks ago. But with Mr. Romney鈥檚 late-in-the-day insurgency in the polls, the race has become dead even. And momentum 鈥� what George H.W. Bush called 鈥渢he Big Mo鈥� 鈥� seems to be on Romney鈥檚 side.
Two main reasons:
First, Romney clearly won the first debate against President Obama, who even jokes now about 鈥渢he nice long nap I had in the first debate.鈥� In their second set-to, Obama was much more engaged, even animated. But aside from Romney鈥檚 gaffe about 鈥渂inders full of women,鈥� the challenger pretty much held his own against the incumbent president.
Second, most voting Americans may worry about the economy first, but foreign policy and national security have become much more important as well. Israel鈥檚 security, Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, China鈥檚 currency, violent revolution in Syria, and certainly Libya聽鈥� since the US ambassador was killed in a terrorist attack there 鈥� all have become major campaign issues and therefore debating points.
Also, while Romney and his running mate Rep. Paul Ryan have no foreign-policy experience, and that can be seen as a weakness in the GOP ticket, Obama has a mixed record to defend.
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You can be sure Romney will try to paint that as adding up to weakness and indecision 鈥� 鈥渓eading from behind鈥� is sure to be brought up 鈥� not to mention what he claims is a certain distancing from Israel.
鈥淯nfortunately, this president鈥檚 policies have not been equal to our best examples of world leadership. And nowhere is this more evident than in the Middle East,鈥� Romney said in his speech at the Virginia Military Institute earlier this month. 鈥淲hen we look at the Middle East today, with Iran closer than ever to nuclear weapons capability, with the conflict in Syria threatening to destabilize the region and with violent extremists on the march, and with an American ambassador and three others dead 鈥� likely at the hands of Al Qaeda聽affiliates 鈥� it鈥檚 clear that the risk of conflict in the region is higher now than when the president took office.鈥�
The terrorist attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi, Libya 鈥� which came on the anniversary of 9/11 at a time when much of the region was in turmoil over a crude anti-Islam YouTube video made in the United States 鈥� is particularly troublesome for Obama.
Washington Post foreign affairs columnist David Ignatius reports that initial CIA 鈥渢alking points,鈥� provided by a senior US intelligence official, supported UN Ambassador Susan Rice鈥檚 early contention that the attack in Benghazi was tied to protests against the YouTube video.
But Republicans in Congress (and Romney) have jumped all over the Obama administration鈥檚 subsequent remarks on the episode, particularly statements regarding 鈥渢errorism鈥� and 鈥渢errorists.鈥�
It鈥檚 all of a piece, Romney charges. 鈥淥ur country seems to be at the mercy of events rather than shaping them,鈥� he wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed column.
Still, Obama can rightly claim to have decimated Al Qaeda鈥檚 leadership, including Osama bin Laden. And it鈥檚 unlikely that Romney as president 鈥� despite his buddy-buddy relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 鈥� could do any more than Obama has done to tighten the economic screws on Iran.
Meanwhile, the debate over who鈥檚 toughest on Iran took a new twist when the New York Times (citing 鈥渁dministration officials鈥�) reported Saturday that the United States and聽Iran聽鈥渉ave agreed in principle for the first time to one-on-one negotiations over聽Iran鈥檚 nuclear program 鈥� setting the stage for what could be a last-ditch diplomatic effort to avert a military strike on Iran.鈥�
Was this some sort of 鈥淥ctober surprise?鈥� Not so, insisted administration officials, who denied the report.
But the Romney camp was quick to label it 鈥渁nother example of a national security leak from the White House,鈥� as Sen. Rob Portman, who played Obama in Romney's debate preparations,聽did Sunday on NBC鈥檚 鈥�Meet the Press.鈥�
Obama spokesmen were just as quick to defend administration policy on Iran.
"For two years, the president traveled the world putting together a withering international coalition. And now the sanctions that they agreed on are bringing the Iranian economy to its knees," said David Axelrod, a senior Obama adviser, also speaking on NBC. "They're feeling the heat. And that's what the sanctions were meant to do."
Both Obama and Romney are preparing to the hilt for Monday night鈥檚 encounter. The last thing either wants to do is have the post-debate discussion focus on a 鈥渂inders鈥� kind of gaffe 鈥� the kind that helped deny Gerald Ford reelection in 1976 when he declared in a debate with Jimmy Carter, 鈥淭here is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe.鈥�
"I think the stakes are pretty high for both candidates," Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan said on CBS鈥檚 鈥�Face the Nation鈥� Sunday. "If we are lucky, we, the voters, we will come out of it at the end thinking, 'I actually know something of Mitt Romney's philosophy as he looks at the world and America's place in it. I understand better what President Obama wants to do and how he sees things.' "
