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It鈥檚 possible that the presidential race could be closer than it is today 鈥� but hard to imagine given what the polls are telling us just 16 days until Election Day.

According to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, out Sunday, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are dead even at 47 percent among likely voters.

This survey was taken after the political combatants鈥� second debate last week, so it鈥檚 current. In the last such poll, taken before the debates began 鈥� that is, before Mr. Obama鈥檚 dismal performance in the first debate and comeback in the second 鈥� Obama was ahead 49 percent to 46 percent.

So the trend among likely voters is in Mr. Romney鈥檚 direction, even though Obama still holds a five-point edge (49 percent to 44 percent) among all registered voters. Thus, the Obama campaign鈥檚 big get-out-the-vote effort.

Each side鈥檚 gender gap is apparent in these latest figures. Romney leads among men (53 percent to 43 percent); Obama is up with women (51 percent to 43 percent).

搁贰颁翱惭惭贰狈顿贰顿:听Obama vs. Romney 101: 5 differences on women's issues

As usual, both camps are spinning the numbers.

鈥淲e feel good about where we are,鈥� senior Obama adviser David Axelrod told NBS鈥檚 David Gregory on "Meet the Press." 鈥淵ou look at the early voting that's going on around the country 鈥� it's very robust and it's very favorable to us. And we think that's a better indicator than these public polls, which are frankly all over the map."

Also speaking on "Meet the Press,"聽Sen. Rob Portman, Obama stand-in for Romney鈥檚 debate prep, declared that 鈥渢he enthusiasm and energy is on our side.鈥�

"I like what I see because the trend is in our direction," said Senator Portman.

Burrowing into the weeds of political polling in the presidential race can muddy the picture.

鈥淩omney's recent surge in the polls after his strong performance in his first debate with Obama on Oct. 3 has propelled the Republican into the lead or within striking distance in enough states to give him a reasonable chance of beating Obama to the finish line,鈥� according to a new Reuters analysis.

"Before the first debate the electoral math looked like a real reach for Romney. Today, it looks quite possible," Quinnipiac University pollster Peter Brown told the news service.

This tentative conclusion is buttressed by another survey out Friday. Gravis Marketing鈥檚 automated survey of 805 likely voters has Romney ahead by two points (46 percent to 44 percent). Romney has an eight-point advantage among independents (42 percent to 34 percent). But a substantial one-quarter of independent voters remain undecided 鈥� another reason why Monday night鈥檚 foreign-policy debate could be crucial, especially for Obama.

Meanwhile, a Reuters/Ipsos daily online tracking poll on Saturday gave Obama a one-point national advantage, with Ipsos projecting an Obama win with 315 electoral votes.

Daily tracking polls have been the subject of recent debate 鈥� particularly Gallup鈥檚, which in recent days has shown Romney ahead by up to seven points nationally. That鈥檚 an outlier compared with the dead heat seen in the Real Clear Politics polling average of 47 percent to 47 percent.

Gallup is a highly respected organization, and its voter surveys are closely watched. But polling statistician Nate Silver, who writes the FiveThirtyEight blog for The New York Times, notes that in cases where Gallup polls are markedly different from other surveys, Gallup鈥檚 numbers typically are off.

That was true in the 2008 presidential election and again in 2010 mid-term elections, writes Mr. Silver.

鈥淭o be clear, I would聽not聽recommend that you literally just disregard the Gallup poll. You should consider it 鈥� but consider it in context,鈥� he writes. 鈥淭he context is that its most recent results differ substantially from the dozens of other state and national polls about the campaign. It鈥檚 much more likely that Gallup is wrong and everyone else is right than the other way around.鈥�

For now 鈥� at least as of his Saturday reckoning, based on vast amounts of data 鈥� Silver forecasts a 67.9 percent chance of Obama winning a second term as president.

搁贰颁翱惭惭贰狈顿贰顿:听Obama vs. Romney 101: 5 differences on women's issues