What would it take for Gingrich, Santorum, or Paul to beat Romney?
Clich茅s abound at this early point in any presidential race. 鈥淣ever say never.鈥� 鈥淚t ain鈥檛 over 鈥榯il it鈥檚 over.鈥�
And in the cold light of a Nevada desert morning, those seem apt even though Mitt Romney won that state鈥檚 nominating caucuses by a wide margin 鈥� his second big victory in a row following Florida just four days earlier 鈥� leaving his main rival Newt Gingrich to figure out a plausible comeback path.
Come convention time next August in Tampa, Fla., it鈥檒l take 1,144 delegates to win the nomination. So far, Romney has 97 鈥� just 8.5 percent of total. Still, other numbers gathered at the Huffington Post鈥檚 web site, indicate strong standing and momentum for the former Massachusetts governor.
He鈥檚 won 94 endorsements from Republican governors, senators, and members of congress as well as "automatic delegates" 鈥� national committee members and state party chairmen. Gingrich has just 11. (Rick Santorum and Ron Paul have 3 each.)
Romney鈥檚 campaign has raised $57 million. Gingrich鈥檚 has raised $12.7 million 鈥� which is more than Santorum ($2.2 million), but less than Paul ($26 million). Gingrich鈥檚 independent super PAC may have outspent Romney鈥檚 by roughly three-to-one ($22 million to $7 million). But Sheldon Adelson, the billionaire chairman and CEO of the Las Vegas Sands hotel and casino, whose extended family has given $11 million to Gingrich鈥檚 super PAC, has quietly given the Romney camp assurances that he鈥檇 be backing the former Massachusetts governor if he wins the nomination.
Gingrich has more Twitter followers than Romney. But at this point, the Intrade prediction market gives the former House Speaker only a 4 percent chance of winning the nomination, compared to 87 percent for Romney. Gingrich鈥檚 campaign remains roughly $600,000 in debt, reports the Washington Post, and he failed to win a place on the ballot for Virginia鈥檚 Super Tuesday primary election.
But, again, it鈥檚 early days in the race. There could be new revelations or verbal gaffes 鈥� like Romney鈥檚 personal income tax history or his recent comment about not being concerned about the very poor.
Gingrich will keep hammering away at Romney. Speaking of Romney鈥檚 attack ads, Gingrich said Saturday night, "I had never before seen a person who I thought was a serious candidate for president be that fundamentally dishonest.鈥�
Meanwhile, he鈥檚 laid out his plan to stay a viable candidate 鈥� what appears to be a southern strategy designed to close the delegate gap between him and Romney.
"Our goal is to get to Super Tuesday, which is much more favorable territory," Gingrich said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press." Super Tuesday, which is March 6, features 10 state primaries and caucuses, including Gingrich鈥檚 home state of Georgia as well as Tennessee.
"By the time Texas is over, we'll be competitive in the final delegate count," he predicted. Texas holds its primary April 3. Between Super Tuesday and the Texas primary, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana will have held their primaries as well.
Santorum and Paul face an even steeper path to the nomination.
Paul鈥檚 strategy is to focus on caucus states, where his well-organized and enthusiastic following can do well.
鈥淲e have three or four caucus states that we believe our numbers are doing pretty good, so we have to just wait and see and continue to do exactly what we're doing,鈥� Paul said on ABC鈥檚 鈥淭his Week鈥� Sunday.
Santorum, who came in last in Nevada (after coming in third in South Carolina and Florida) and is way behind his competitors in campaign fund-raising, is focusing on Tuesday鈥檚 caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota.
"We think we can do exceptionally well," the former Pennsylvania senator said on聽Fox News Sunday. "We're going to show this race is moving in a very different direction."
That may be true, but at the moment the movement seems to be in Romney鈥檚 direction.
