海角大神

Episode transcript

Howard LaFranchi: I鈥檓 trying to think of the reader, and [ask] what does the reader want in terms of understanding what all this means? Also, not just focusing on what might appear like dire consequences, but finding what might be the positive side. Venezuela has been deteriorating economically, socially, politically for the past couple of decades. And so, you know, might this shock, over time, with the right management and the right steps 鈥� sort of enlightened steps 鈥� actually allow Venezuela to return to the much more prosperous and stable country that it had been?

Clay Collins: 鈥奣hat鈥檚 Howard LaFranchi.

The Monitor鈥檚 U.S.-based diplomacy correspondent since 2001, Howard has had a career as a globetrotter. In recent years, he has been a key part of our rotation of writers into Ukraine. He鈥檚 worked out of Paris and Baghdad. Howard was also the Monitor鈥檚 Mexico City-based Latin America correspondent from 1994 to 2001. He traveled repeatedly to Venezuela before and during the rise of Hugo Ch谩vez.

All of that, and his knack for smart, context-rich distillation, put Howard on the short list of writers to tap when Monitor editors began looking at how to size up the Trump administration鈥檚 arrest and extraction of Venezuela Nicol谩s Maduro earlier this month, and its declared intent to 鈥渞un Venezuela,鈥� a story that jolted our editorial staff, which was just coming off a holiday break.

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Collins: 鈥奣his is 鈥淲hy We Wrote This.鈥� I鈥檓 Clay Collins. Howard joins me today. Hey, Howard!

LaFranchi: Hey, good to talk, Clay!

Collins: 鈥奡o, the dust is settling a bit now. But let鈥檚 go back to the early hours of Jan. 3. Operation Absolute Resolve unfolds in Caracas. The hemisphere is 鈥渟hook,鈥� right? This is gunboat diplomacy. The 鈥渂ig stick鈥� is back. It鈥檚 the 鈥淒on-roe Doctrine,鈥� as the president called it at one point. I want to get into the particulars of the story you wrote that weekend, which got at the deeper meaning. But first, I just want to know, where were you when you heard about the operation, and did you kind of take a beat and think, 鈥淲hoa!鈥� or did you immediately start thinking about sources?

LaFranchi: As you noted, most of us were just kind of getting up and getting our day going. I鈥檓 not one who has my phone right by my bed. So, I was downstairs, happened to look over at my phone. I was picking it up, and it said I had an incoming call from our managing editor, Kurt Shillinger. And I thought, 鈥淥h, that鈥檚 probably a mistake. But I鈥檒l pick it up anyway.鈥� And I got a rather grave sounding Kurt saying: 鈥淗oward, can you join the call that we鈥檙e all on right now?鈥� I didn鈥檛 wanna sound ignorant, frankly, so I just said: 鈥淪ure, give me a minute.鈥� Got off that call, checked the news very quickly, saw what had happened, and then joined the Zoom call with editors and [other] writers. Really for a number of months, with the military buildup in the Caribbean. ...

Collins: 鈥夾n armada, really.

LaFranchi: Yes, at least 20% of U.S. naval capacity in the Caribbean. You don鈥檛 do that simply to send a message to, in this case, Nicol谩s Maduro, to change his ways. Many of us thought something was coming. Also, we have to take into consideration we鈥檙e dealing with Donald Trump here. We know that he likes to make decisions kind of off the cuff. Which, in this case, [it鈥檚 a] very impressive operation. I mean, it took a huge amount of planning. Nevertheless, I think for all of us there was kind of a 鈥淲hoa!鈥� as you say, and then, 鈥淗ere we go.鈥�

Collins: 鈥奟ight. So, clearly not a butt dial from the managing editor 鈥� and a president whose brand is unpredictability. So, yeah, it鈥檚 off to the races, right?

We talk in our business a lot about 鈥渇irst day stories,鈥� and then going on from there. You know in this case we had three writers, led by Whitney Eulich, and with a contribution by a fourth writer, produced an excellent story by Saturday afternoon. It was mostly on the flash bang of the event, and the early thinking that it stirred around things like legality and geopolitics. But, by then, you are already in motion on a followup story.

LaFranchi: Yes, you know, what we call 鈥渟econd day stories.鈥� It relates to Trump鈥檚 own pronouncement, since the very first days of the second term, that he would be implementing a sort of updated version, a more aggressive version of the Monroe Doctrine. Perhaps taking back the Panama Canal. His interest in Greenland. In the initial days, there wasn鈥檛 any talk of Venezuela that I recall. And so, in March, I produced a magazine cover story on, you know, the 鈥淣ew Monroe Doctrine,鈥� based on a trip to Peru, and then a lot of conversations with experts and, as far as I could, officials from the administration. So, there was some preparation, some background, for the story that we did 鈥� kind of the first 鈥渟econd day story.鈥�

Collins: 鈥奟ight, there was that [earlier] story. I think you and Whitney collaborated a bit on that. And then you ended up writing, you know, just this past weekend, about the Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine over the early 1820s, and you cited the 1904 鈥淩oosevelt Doctrine.鈥� I want to send listeners to your story by way of a link in our show notes. But just to encapsulate what鈥檚 going on: This is essentially another 鈥渕ight makes right鈥� moment for the United States, correct? And now Greenland seems like a big hemispheric shoe that might drop.

LaFranchi: Yes. Again, the president has been talking about Greenland since the first days of this second term. And now, he is reemphasizing that and causing all kinds of uproar in transatlantic relations.

Collins: 鈥奃enmark being a NATO country.

LaFranchi: Denmark being a NATO country. And the prime minister of Denmark saying any moves by the United States against Denmark would signal the end of NATO. So, the repercussions of this cannot be underestimated. And that sort of gets into the next 鈥渟econd day story,鈥� you might say, that I鈥檓 working on. Is this a new era of, you know, law of the jungle?

Collins: 鈥奟ight, like, you know, Putin wants Ukraine, Xi wants Taiwan. I mean, is it kind of 鈥減ower dictates鈥�?

LaFranchi: Yes, you know, also, is it the end of an order since World War II, that certainly gave Europe, which for centuries had been, you know, the seat of conflict one after the other, a U.S.-led global order based on international law, and U.S.-led alliances 鈥� at the top of the list being NATO. Yes, there have been conflicts, but nothing even near the order of a World War II. So, again, the question is 鈥渉ow damaging are these moves by the United States that much of the world is decrying as leading to a new instability?鈥�

Collins: 鈥奟ight. I want to pull us back to Latin America, because obviously the U.S. has a long history of actions down there, too. And you鈥檙e an old Latin America hand, Howard. You鈥檝e got this hip-pocket context that comes with layers and layers, uh, I鈥檓 not trying to make you feel senior here, but a lot of lived history, right, in that region? And there鈥檚 so much context here.

The internet channels right after the U.S. extraction were flooded, including with speculation, you know, about the possible involvement of third parties, about secret deals. There were these comparisons to Panama and Manuel Noriega in the late 鈥�80s. So basically you need to respond to the news and not to others鈥� reactions to the news. So, my question is: How do you stay focused on what鈥檚 actually known?

LaFranchi: With this president, it鈥檚 difficult to know what is known and to set out with a basic set of facts. You know, I think [back] to the press conference President Trump held on Saturday, Jan. 3. The president already was talking about how the United States was going to be running Venezuela. And there in the background was Secretary [Marco] Rubio with this struck look on his face, like: 鈥淲ait, what? We are?鈥�

Collins: 鈥奟ight, right.

LaFranchi: So, I must admit, at that moment I thought: 鈥淲ell, if this is news to the secretary of state, how can I be expected to know what鈥檚 coming forward?鈥� But that very unpredictability leads to all this speculation. And I think that鈥檚 probably part of the intent, to worry people. I mean you also may recall that at that very first press conference at Mar-a-Lago, Secretary Rubio said: 鈥淚f I were Havana鈥� 鈥� referring to the Cuban government 鈥� 鈥淚f I were Havana, I鈥檇 be worried.鈥� So, I think the intent is to send a shockwave through the region.

But I think underneath it all, the message is that the days of the United States of America paying for the defense and the stability of the rest of the world are over. And now, we鈥檙e going to be pursuing a foreign policy specifically in our hemisphere that serves first and foremost U.S. interest, and assures that other countries and leaders in the region are on board with that agenda.

Collins: 鈥奍鈥檓 interested in pursuing this idea of kind of how you know what to pursue. I think some of it is reading body language, as you say. Talk about when it鈥檚 important to be on the ground when possible, versus when it works to be in a quieter perch, remotely executing news analysis. And also, maybe, explain to listeners how feeds from other reporters can add important voices and capture local mood.

LaFranchi: I must admit as I was preparing my first story on Jan. 3, I had that reporter鈥檚 itch, you know, 鈥淥h, wow. I wish I could be on the ground in Caracas.鈥� But ...

Collins: 鈥奃o you have a 鈥済o bag,鈥� by any chance?

LaFranchi: [Laughs.] I do not. Although I pack much differently now from the early days, certainly, of covering Latin America. A little anecdote: So, my first overseas reporting job was in Paris. That involved a lot of press conferences at the 脡lys茅e, or getting up to Brussels for NATO meetings. So, there was a lot of suits and ties involved. And then I get to Latin America, and my first reporting trip to Cuba. Had a meeting with one of the deputy foreign ministers. He greets me in his guayabera. And I was wearing a sport jacket. And so at the end of our meeting, he said: 鈥淎nd Howard, next time, lose the jacket, OK?鈥� You know.

But you pack differently for each assignment. For Ukraine, for example. Ukraine鈥檚 president is not a guy who likes a coat and tie, so I don鈥檛 have to worry about packing a suit. But we do have to be very mindful of the security situation. The drone warfare means that really you鈥檙e at risk almost anywhere. And we have a security bag that we take in with us: heavy armored vest, helmet, first-aid kit, of course, but then also communication equipment.

I think it鈥檚 important to try to do both. The analysis story is for readers鈥� understanding of what may be coming, what this means. The human story, the on-the-ground, 鈥渉ow does this impact you.鈥� If I look back over my career, it鈥檚 those human stories that I remember, whether it was Colombia, Cuba, Ukraine.

At the moment, it鈥檚 not easy to get into Venezuela. I know of a number of reporters who are stuck on the Colombian border, waiting to try to get in. And for those who are already on the ground, I鈥檝e heard about some detentions of foreign reporters, just for a few hours, but I think [it鈥檚] signal-sending by the Venezuelan authorities on the ground.

Collins: 鈥夾nd, of course, sometimes it鈥檚 possible to get in country reporters, you know, native Venezuelans in this case, but they are also at risk. And so that has to be handled, I assume, very carefully in terms of protecting them in assisting you with getting color from inside.

LaFranchi: Yeah, so, if you have established relationships on the ground, you can have a better chance, anyway, of citing those sources. But in some cases, given the situation, people just ... they鈥檙e willing to talk to you but not for attribution. So, you just go with that.

Collins: 鈥奡o, Howard, more stories of your will have run before this episode airs. But as we speak here, without giving away the store, what are some angles that you鈥檙e considering? And more important, I guess, can you describe the kind of Monitor thinking that helps inform Monitor angles in particular?

LaFranchi: Yes, the, you know ... where we鈥檙e going with global order. What countries or organizations might try to fill a void, if a void were left by the U.S. relinquishing its role as global leader. So, that鈥檚 one area.

I think also an additional focus on Latin America, on the region. For example, Colombia, which, you know, we have very strong relations, or have had very strong relations with Colombia, going way back to the 鈥�90s when we were investing heavily in what then was called 鈥淧lan Colombia.鈥� That involved drug trade issues, narco trafficking. It was also the U.S. siding with the Colombian government to bring stability to a country that had been the seat of guerrilla warfare for decades. And so, now, we have a turn there too, where the United States seems to be taking on a much more aggressive policy.

I think all of us at the Monitor, but I certainly, am trying to think of the reader and what does the reader want in terms of understanding what all this means. Also, not just focusing on what might appear like dire consequences, but finding what might be the hopeful or positive side.

Venezuela has been deteriorating economically, socially, politically for the past couple of decades. And so, you know, might this shock, over time, with the right management and the right steps 鈥� sort of enlightened steps 鈥� actually allow Venezuela to return to the much more prosperous and stable country that it had been in the past. And I think that Venezuelans, especially Venezuelans who are now outside their country, but Venezuelans wanting to return, for many of them, we鈥檙e hearing that there is this sense of hope that, terrible as this might be right now, maybe there is some good and some progress for the future.

We try to not just leave readers with the upheaval but actually where these shocks might allow for progress.

Collins: 鈥奡o much in play in the hemisphere 鈥� and indeed, in the world. Thank you, Howard, for being on top of this remarkable story, and for breaking it down as always in ways that are both clear and calm.

LaFranchi: Thanks, Clay!

Collins: 鈥夾nd thanks to our listeners. You can find links to the story you just heard discussed and to all of Howard鈥檚 reporting in our episode show notes at . This episode was hosted by me, Clay Collins, and produced by Jingnan Peng. Mackenzie Farkus is also a producer on this show. Our sound engineer was Alyssa Britton. Original music is by Noel Flatt. Produced by 海角大神, copyright 2026.