Methane leaks: How much comes from fossil fuels industry?
The fossil fuel industry may be emitting twice as much methane as previously thought, a new study finds.
After carbon dioxide, methane is considered the second biggest source of manmade greenhouse gases.听The study鈥檚 authors have pulled together the most comprehensive methane emissions database yet, and concluded that emissions from fossil fuels are听听than current estimates. After accounting for 鈥渘atural geological methane seepage,鈥� methane emissions from coal, oil, and natural gas production are still between 20 and 60 percent higher than previously thought.听
The study鈥檚 findings may have important implications for the effort to meet Paris Agreement goals. It鈥檚 also possible that the fossil fuel industry can be part of the solution 鈥� though others say what鈥檚 needed is a more听rapid transition to a clean energy economy.
The Paris Agreement goes into force on November 4, after passing the ratification threshold of 55 percent of countries 鈥� representing 55 percent of global emissions 鈥� on Wednesday. The UN Framework on Climate Change has said that prompt adoption of the agreement will 鈥�, spurring strong and decisive action.鈥� What does the new study mean for efforts to meet these goals?
鈥淚t definitely makes the US goals a bit harder to meet,鈥� says Jeffery Greenblatt, a staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Methane has a shorter life than carbon dioxide, so 鈥淚f we are able to understand the sources of methane leakage and address them, then it鈥檚 certainly possible that we could make changes quickly,鈥� he tells 海角大神 in a phone interview.
In another recent study, Dr. Greenblatt and fellow Berkeley Lab scientist Max Wei found that the United States may not hit its emissions targets by 2025. If all goes well, the US may reduce emissions up to 356 million tons more than its Paris commitment, but the authors are concerned by the possibility that the US could miss its goal by up to 924 million tons. They therefore to help meet these goals, including phasing out fossil fuel production, increasing the number of electric cars on the road, and increasing the use of hydrogen and biofuels.
Meanwhile, the oil and gas industry has undertaken efforts to reduce methane leaks, cutting the听leak rate by听75 percent over the past three decades,听the study found. Though, lead author Stefan Schwietzke tells the Monitor that those reductions have been offset by emissions released听due to increased听natural gas production.
Dr. Schwietzke told Time magazine that producers鈥� efforts to may have been a driving force behind this drop in leaks.
BP joined the Climate and Clean Air Coalition鈥檚 Oil and Gas Methane Partnership in 2015. 鈥淐ompanies [in this Partnership] analyse sources of methane to evaluate ,鈥� according to a 2015 Sustainability Report the company provided to the Monitor.
鈥淔rom the natural gas production system, there do seem to be leaks coming from 鈥� relatively few sources,鈥� meaning emissions could be lowered substantially with each fixed leak, Greenblatt tells the Monitor. His report argued that identifying and addressing these "super-emitters" could reduce methane emissions from fossil fuels up to 87 percent. To make that happen, President Obama鈥檚 aspirational goal to reduce methane by 40 to 45 percent 鈥渘eeds to become a policy with teeth,鈥� he concludes.
Joeri Rogelj, a research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, tells the Monitor that easy solutions to the additional emissions, such as curbing leakage, may paradoxically 鈥渕ake achieving emissions-reduction harder in the long term, because of the lock-in to emission intensive infrastructure.鈥� If countries are not compelled to make structural changes now, they may struggle to do so down the road. However, if the leaks cannot be managed, 鈥渋t would further jeopardize the environmental integrity and economic viability of the continued use of fossil fuels,鈥� possibly complicating the transition to alternative fuels.
Robert Howarth, professor of ecology and environmental biology at Cornell University, says oil-and-gas industry methane emissions may have fallen over time 鈥� as the study concludes 鈥� but that is not necessarily a permanent trend.听
鈥淚 suspect a large part of that decrease might be attributable to the collapse of the former Soviet Union and the rebuilding of Siberian gas fields and pipelines to Europe using improved technology and building methods after that,鈥� he tells the Monitor in an email. Methane emissions may have started to rise again around 2011, . 鈥淚 firmly believe [it will be difficult to reduce] emissions from shale gas, and so we need to accelerate the move to renewable energy and get rid of all fossil fuels鈥s quickly as possible,鈥� he concludes.
The latest emissions study is one of by scholars to understand the sources and effects of methane. A new study in BioScience finds that reservoirs may account for 1.3 percent of global methane emissions. This has raised concerns about the environmental viability of hydropower, particularly large hydropower projects, which has been the renewable energy source of choice for many developing countries. Researchers say that global assessments 听again to account for these findings, which in turn will help produce better policy.
鈥淚 would say that emission scenarios may need to be adjusted for multiple methane sources. We found that fossil fuel methane emissions are greater than what we previously thought, but microbial sources (including natural wetlands, ruminants (mostly cows), landfills, and rice agriculture are smaller than what we previously thought,鈥� Schwietzke tells 海角大神.
[Editor's note:听This report has been updated to clarify that reductions in leak rates have been offset by methane emissions released during increased natural gas production.]
