Will Iran help bottle up the nuclear genie?
If talks planned between Iran and the United States take place Saturday 鈥� a big if, given their fragile ceasefire 鈥� they will be the first direct negotiations between the two countries in a decade. That hints at how seriously both sides take this diplomatic moment of peacemaking.
It also suggests Iran, whose leadership and weaponry took a blow during the 38-day war, might be open to making a critical concession that could shape the future of warfare worldwide. In its 10-point agenda for the talks, Iran set conditions under which it would commit to not building nuclear weapons.
Such a bold step would be welcome progress right now. Many of the world鈥檚 safeguards against nations acquiring nuclear weapons have eroded, especially as doubts rise about U.S. defense guarantees to allies. And Russia not only threatened nuclear attacks during the Ukraine war, but, in 2023, also suspended its participation in the New START pact, which capped the number of deployed warheads between Russia and the U.S. That treaty lapsed in February of this year.
A number of nations might now be thinking of acquiring atomic weapons. If Iran actually gives up its nuclear aspirations, it would set a helpful precedent to restore the norms of nuclear nonproliferation that were achieved in the decades after World War II. The prospect of Iran taking that step depends on how much the regime puts its survival ahead of building a nuclear weapon.
Iran knows that the U.S., after striking the country鈥檚 nuclear facilities twice in one year, is willing to do so again. For its part, Israel says that all of Iran鈥檚 enriched uranium will be removed 鈥渆ither through agreement, or by renewed fighting.鈥� China, too, might play a role. As Iran鈥檚 largest oil customer, it does not want to see the Middle East turn into a region with countries seeking atomic bombs.
Within the regime, divisions over making this concession are evident. The English version of its negotiating agenda with the U.S., for example, did not include a condition contained in the Farsi-language version made public inside Iran 鈥� 鈥渢he acceptance of Iran鈥檚 uranium enrichment鈥� 鈥� according to David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security.
In 2003, Iran did commit to ending its dedicated nuclear weapons program. The then-supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, justified the move on religious grounds, although Iran experts say the U.S. invasion of Iraq was a bigger reason. Moves by Iran since then to revive its nuclear program helped lead to the Israeli and U.S. attacks in 2025 and 2026.
Much more than a resumption of the war or the rising price of fuel is at stake in the talks between the U.S. and Iran. The world also hopes to continue a record it can be proud of: There has not been a nuclear weapon used during war in more than 80 years.
