Israel has long weighed bombing Iran鈥檚 nuclear sites. Why it struck now.
| Tel Aviv, Israel
Recently, when missiles have been fired from Yemen by the Iran-allied Houthis, Israelis have received cellphone warnings 10 minutes before the air-raid sirens sounded.
This time, things were different. Israelis awoke at 2:59 a.m. Friday to a high-pitched alarm, followed by a phone message from the Home Front Command to stay close to their protective spaces.
As TVs turned on, the dramatic news unfolded: Israel was attacking its archenemy, Iran. By Friday night, Iran鈥檚 retaliation was lighting up Israel鈥檚 skies, with explosions rocking Tel Aviv and Israeli defense systems sending interceptors streaking up to engage the incoming ballistic missiles.
Why We Wrote This
Israel has long feared that Iran鈥檚 nuclear enrichment program was geared toward developing a weapon. Now Israel has crossed the threshold of overtly bombing nuclear sites, inviting an Iranian response. Is U.S. diplomacy still possible?
Fearing that Iran鈥檚 decadeslong nuclear enrichment program was geared toward development of a nuclear weapon, Israel has long considered carrying out a preemptive strike. But it has always been put off, because of the heavy toll that the anticipated, resulting war, with its regional implications, could take.
So why now?
Since the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Iran鈥檚 ally Hamas, what had been an Israel-Iran shadow war has come repeatedly into the open, including Israeli strikes that heavily damaged Iran鈥檚 air defenses in October 2024, leaving the much larger nation temporarily vulnerable.
In recent days, amid reports that Trump administration efforts to reach a deal with Iran on its enrichment program were reaching a stalemate, warnings of an Israeli attack proliferated.
The timing for such an attack was ripe, says Chuck Freilich, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv and a former deputy Israeli national security adviser. Iran and its regional proxies have been 鈥渄ramatically weakened鈥� since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a window of opportunity for attacking at hopefully a much lower cost than would have been in the past,鈥� he says.
In addition, the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump has shown much more readiness to go along with an Israeli attack, even if there was an effort to reach a diplomatic deal to rein in Iran鈥檚 nuclear capabilities.
鈥淧laying for time鈥�
According to Sima Shine, head of the INSS鈥� Iran program and former head of a Mossad research division, Israel became convinced in recent days that Iran was not serious in its negotiations and was 鈥減laying for time.鈥� In a briefing with reporters, she said there was an understanding Iran had accumulated so much enriched uranium that it could break out for a bomb in a very short time.
Israel鈥檚 attack will now most likely disrupt the U.S.-Iran talks, Professor Freilich says, but it may also increase Iran鈥檚 motivation to renew them.
A third point favoring an attack now is a political one, he says. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has 鈥渧ery clear political reasons for wanting to do this, because if it succeeds, it may be enough to save his political career,鈥� which was badly tarnished by his government鈥檚 failure to fend off Hamas鈥� Oct. 7 attack.
Early Friday morning, Mr. Netanyahu to the nation, saying that in response to a 鈥渃lear and present danger,鈥� Israel had no choice but to attack.
In recent years, Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs, he explained, and in recent months has taken steps 鈥渢o weaponize this enriched uranium.鈥� He said Iran was also gearing up to produce 10,000 ballistic missiles within three years.
Intimating that Israel鈥檚 aims extended beyond Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, Mr. Netanyahu also directed remarks in English to Iranians, saying Israel鈥檚 fight was not with Iran鈥檚 people but with its oppressive regime: 鈥淚 believe that the day of your liberation is near.鈥�
According to the Israeli military, more than 200 Israeli air force jets struck overnight in a 鈥渇irst stage鈥� at military targets, nuclear targets and facilities, senior members of the Iranian general staff, and senior scientists of its nuclear programs. The strikes also targeted air defenses in western Iran and ballistic missiles.
Israel said its jets hit the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, the largest such site in Iran, damaging the underground area containing centrifuges, electrical rooms, and other infrastructure.
Israel said the strikes also killed Iran鈥檚 three most senior military commanders: armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri; Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hossein Salami; and Gholam-Ali Rashid, head of Iran鈥檚 emergency command.
In retaliation, Iran launched over 100 drones toward Israel, many of which were intercepted on the way. 鈥淭he threat isn鈥檛 over yet,鈥� a military official said in a Zoom briefing. 鈥淭hese are complex days for the Israeli people.鈥�
On Friday evening, Israel said a salvo of some 100 ballistic missiles had been fired from Iran, with five to seven landing in Israel. Debris from intercepted missiles fell in and near Amman, Jordan. A missile fired from Yemen reportedly fell in the West Bank.
According to Israel Ziv, a retired general, the Israeli attack has already become a reality 鈥済ame changer,鈥� saying the United States should now use Israel鈥檚 latest military achievements to reach a 鈥渕uch more draconian鈥� agreement with Iran.
The timing was right, he says, given the assessment that Iran鈥檚 weakness would not have continued forever and the fact that the 60-day deadline Mr. Trump had given the Iranians to reach a deal had passed. There is no doubt, he says, that the U.S. green-lighted the attack.
Targeting leadership
Hitting military leaders and nuclear scientists would help Israel attain a 鈥渕uch more significant achievement鈥� than if it had targeted just the nuclear infrastructure, he says.
鈥淭hey are also attacking the nuclear facilities, but it was not the first priority,鈥� General Ziv says. The top priority of the surprise attack was to hit at top Iranian commanders and scientists who otherwise 鈥渨ould have disappeared.鈥�
Israel and America鈥檚 鈥渃entral motif鈥� going forward, General Ziv says, should now not just be the nuclear issue, but the toppling of the current Iranian leadership. 鈥淲e must break down all of the regime, the economy, whatever we can to make sure they cannot come back from this.鈥�
Iran will likely retaliate with 鈥渨hatever they have,鈥� General Ziv says. But much of Iran鈥檚 arsenal has been damaged, 鈥渟ignificantly鈥� lowering the threat to Israel.
The INSS鈥� Professor Freilich also says the U.S. must use Israel鈥檚 strike to advance its nuclear talks with Iran, and adds hopefully also a resolution of the war in Gaza and Israel鈥檚 conflict with the Palestinians.
鈥淲e need a diplomatic agreement to achieve long-term change,鈥� he says. 鈥淎nd of course, the really big question would be, if we had some ... broader diplomatic endgame after this, certainly in Gaza, and maybe on the Palestinian issue as a whole.鈥�
This story, originally published at 1:34 p.m. on June 13, has been updated with news and developments.
