As US forces build in Middle East, Trump and Iran are locked in a staredown
| London
American military forces are building in the Middle East daily, arriving on a threat from U.S. President Donald Trump Wednesday that 鈥渢ime is running out鈥� for Iran to do a deal, or face military action from a 鈥渕assive armada.鈥�
Iran鈥檚 leadership, still smarting from Israeli and U.S. strikes last June, is trying to find its feet after a crackdown on nationwide anti-regime protests this month left thousands dead. It鈥檚 responding to Mr. Trump鈥檚 threats with combative rhetoric of its own that aims to project strength and deter U.S. action by signaling the high cost of Iranian retaliation.
鈥淚t is our armed forces that decide the endgame of any war,鈥� Iran鈥檚 Revolutionary Guard spokesman, 2nd Brig. Gen. Ali Mohammad Naini, told state-run TV Wednesday. 鈥淚ntimidation through war imagery and the deployment of an aircraft carrier is an old tactic.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
Amassing military forces and bolstered by Iran鈥檚 perceived vulnerability, President Donald Trump says 鈥渢ime is running out.鈥� Replying with threats of its own, the Islamic Republic is trying to restore its deterrence and survive what it realizes is an existential challenge.
Echoing other Iranian officials and commanders, General Naini claimed the White House was 鈥渋n a state of confusion鈥� after the 鈥渞apid and decisive failure of the American-led sedition [protests]鈥� in Iran.
The official bravado, analysts say, is designed to avoid conflict, to counter the perception in Washington of Iranian vulnerability, restore deterrence, and ensure the Islamic Republic survives what it realizes is the most existential challenge to its 47-year rule.
General Naini portrayed the 12-day war last June, during which Iran fired more than 550 ballistic missiles at Israel, and at an American base in Qatar, as proof that the 鈥渕ilitary option against Iran has failed.鈥�
鈥淲e are in full control of the situation on the ground,鈥� he said, 鈥渁nd have action plans for all their scenarios.鈥�
Seeking regime change?
Yet the menu of American options is broad, honed by decades of strategic brinksmanship with Iran. It ranges from the assassination or capture of leaders, and targeting urban Revolutionary Guard bases responsible for the recent crackdown, to striking remaining nuclear and missile facilities and even wholesale attempt at regime change.
Reuters cited two U.S. sources Thursday saying Mr. Trump wanted to create conditions for 鈥渞egime change,鈥� but had not yet decided on a military path.
Israel鈥檚 surprise attack last June, after nearly two years of war with Hamas and other Iranian allies, killed several of Iran鈥檚 key commanders and struck its nuclear and military infrastructure. The United States joined the battle, and analysts assess the American bunker-buster bombs severely damaged Iran鈥檚 nuclear program.
鈥淭rump鈥檚 presidency comes at this time when [Iran鈥檚 leaders] are so vulnerable, and he is a wild card,鈥� says Afshon Ostovar, an Iran specialist and associate professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California.
鈥淎s much as the Iranians probably think, 鈥楾he Americans won鈥檛 go for regime change. The most they鈥檙e going to do is hit us from the air. We can survive,鈥� they don鈥檛 know. Venezuela throws all that out,鈥� says Dr. Ostovar, referring to the surprise Jan. 3 seizure of President Nicol谩s Maduro in Caracas by U.S. Special Forces.
鈥淭hat gives the U.S. a lot more leverage in negotiations, but also makes it much more difficult for the Iranians to plan for this variety of possibilities,鈥� he says.
Existential crisis
Blows to Iran鈥檚 regional prowess the past two years include the weakening of 鈥淎xis of Resistance鈥� allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen, and the collapse of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad. Israeli and American strikes last June further degraded Iran鈥檚 capabilities. And the recent protests 鈥� put down with unprecedented bloodshed 鈥� added more uncertainty.
鈥淭hey realize very acutely that they are in an existential crisis. Everything is going wrong for them, and the regime is in the biggest danger it has ever been,鈥� says Dr. Ostovar. 鈥淚t鈥檚 very clear that the ruling clique ... cannot agree on a different path. There is no obvious consensus of, 鈥榃here do we go from here?鈥欌��
The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group arrived in Middle East waters this week. American jet fighter squadrons and air and missile defenses have also reportedly been forward deployed around Iran in recent weeks. Electronic surveillance aircraft are now flying nonstop.
鈥淗opefully Iran will quickly 鈥榗ome to the Table鈥� and negotiate a fair and equitable deal 鈥� NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS,鈥� Mr. Trump posted on Truth Social Wednesday, adding that 鈥渢he next attack will be far worse.鈥�
Iranian officials say there are currently no negotiations, and that previous administration demands to shackle Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, curtail its missile arsenal, and rein in regional allies are unacceptable.
鈥淚ran鈥檚 position is clear: Diplomacy conducted through military threats cannot succeed,鈥� Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X Wednesday. Any renewal of talks 鈥渕ust abandon threats, excessive demands, and illogical issues.鈥�
Iran鈥檚 armed forces 鈥渁re prepared 鈥� with their fingers on the trigger 鈥� to ... respond to ANY aggression,鈥� Mr. Araghchi posted later. In response to Mr. Trump鈥檚 ultimatum, Iran鈥檚 mission to the United Nations posted that, when the U.S. 鈥渂lundered鈥� into wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, it 鈥渟quandered鈥� $7 trillion and more than 7,000 American lives.
Cautionary voices
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Egypt have warned against U.S. strikes. Turkey has offered to mediate, and hosts Mr. Araghchi Friday. Even Israel, whose missile defenses, including interceptors supplied by the United States, were depleted in the June war, reportedly has counseled Mr. Trump to consider delaying military action.
The view that has gained traction across much of Iran鈥檚 security establishment is that 鈥減ressure persists because the United States believes Iran has been weakened,鈥� writes Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert at the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs, in Iran Analytica.
The June war, 鈥渢he cumulative impact of sanctions, and the eruption of large-scale protests have combined to produce a perception in Washington that Iran鈥檚 capacity to absorb further coercion is limited,鈥� writes Dr. Azizi.
Iran鈥檚 鈥渨arnings that even a limited strike would be treated as an all-out war are not expressions of eagerness for confrontation. Instead, they reflect an effort to restore deterrence.鈥�
Still, notes Dr. Azizi, this bid to restore deterrence 鈥渉as unfolded under conditions of evident strategic stress鈥� in Iran.
Before the protest crackdown, Mr. Trump said Iran would be 鈥渉it very hard鈥� if protesters were killed. After they were crushed, he posted: 鈥淚ranian Patriots, keep protesting 鈥� take over your institutions!!! ... help is on its way.鈥�
Confirmed deaths have since risen to 6,373, with more than 17,000 fatalities still 鈥渦nder review,鈥� according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, which has tabulated accurate figures in the past.
鈥溾�楬elp is coming,鈥� but when?鈥�
In his Wednesday warning, Mr. Trump did not mention the protests or the death toll. Some Iranians who took to the streets, buoyed by the U.S. president鈥檚 promise of help, say they feel let down.
鈥淥ur fate is now in the hands of this orange maniac [Trump], but he himself has no idea what his next move is,鈥� says a jeweler in Tehran, who gave the name Yousef. 鈥淗e encouraged our youth to rise up, but they lost their lives. If he had acted on time, the regime would not have dared to open fire on our friends. He betrayed them all.
鈥淭hey went out because they thought he would support them. They counted on him,鈥� says Yousef. 鈥溾�楬elp is coming, help is coming,鈥� but when? How many more of us should die before that so-called help arrives?鈥�
As American forces continue the buildup, the timing of any action, its effectiveness, and the form it takes, remain uncertain.
An 8-minute video released Wednesday by the office of Iran鈥檚 supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sought to boost spirits in case of war, by invoking a 7th-century battle of the prophet Muhammad, with the words: 鈥淪hall we have fear? God suffices.鈥�
鈥淣ow that they鈥檝e calmed the streets, I think they are in bunker mode,鈥� Dr. Ostovar says of Iran鈥檚 leadership. 鈥淚 think what they hope, more than anything, is that they can outlast this president, they can survive three more years, and have a better chance under whoever replaces President Trump.鈥�
An Iranian researcher contributed to this report.
