The assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on Friday achieved a strategic objective Israel had sought for nearly two decades. It diminishes at least temporarily the threat to Israel鈥檚 existence posed by Iran and its militant proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza.
Yet the real basis of Israel鈥檚 security and regional stability may rest on a different development. Well before Mr. Nasrallah鈥檚 demise, the persistent democratic aspirations of Arab and Iranian citizens posed a growing challenge to the theology he and his patrons in Tehran have promoted.
鈥淭ehran鈥檚 pursuits and policies in the region are not ones that citizens throughout the region view positively,鈥� observed Arab Barometer in July, based on its latest regional survey of Arab opinion. Across the Middle East, it found, few respondents agreed that 鈥淚t is good for the Arab region that Hezbollah is getting involved in regional politics.鈥�
As a Shiite cleric who claimed to be a direct descendant of the Prophet Mohammad, Mr. Nasrallah led Hezbollah in Lebanon with a messianic zeal that is central to the beliefs of his sect. The Shiite branch of Islam is a minority in the Muslim world, but it predominates in Iran and has consequential influence in both Iraq and southern Lebanon.
Like the theocrats who govern Iran with absolute power, Mr. Nasrallah believed that strict adherence to the laws of Islam would usher in the return of Mahdi, or the Messiah. It is a 鈥減otent vision鈥� marshaled by groups like Hezbollah and Hamas to justify violence against Israel, noted Iranian analyst Amir Toumaj in FDD鈥檚 Long War Journal.
That theological view helped Hezbollah broaden its appeal to varying degrees as Shiite and other Lebanese citizens felt frustrated by the failures of their government to provide economic opportunity or protection during periods of heightened tensions with Israel. Yet in Iran, that appeal has lost ground. Amid the violent repression of rights for women, many younger Iranians have turned to neighboring Iraq, where the most popular Shiite cleric preaches free and fair democracy without direct political control by religious figures.
Younger Lebanese share that yearning. Many blame Hezbollah for fomenting political violence and blocking democracy. As a political party with a minority of seats in Parliament, it helped derail municipal elections three times 聽and marred 12 attempts since 2022 to choose a new president.
Against that background, Lebanese citizens are striving to rebuild governance at the grassroots through civil society. Those efforts, says Sera Saad, an urban planner in Beirut, seek to strengthen unity across Lebanon鈥檚 diverse religious communities and restore civic trust. 鈥淲e鈥檝e now seen youth take beautiful initiatives and engage with their municipalities to make their villages and cities a better place for everyone,鈥� she told The Hague Academy for Local Governance.
The killing of Mr. Nasrallah has opened a new moment for putting Lebanese governance back together. Following a meeting with visiting French Foreign Minister Jean-No毛l Barrot in Beirut on Sunday, Prime Minister Najib Mikati vowed to extend the military鈥檚 influence across Hezbollah鈥檚 stronghold in the south and urged lawmakers to elect a new president. That renewal of democracy has strong tail winds in the recognition already made by ordinary citizens that individual rights are inherent rather than determined by a cleric鈥檚 edict.
Clayton Collins
