海角大神

Sometimes asking questions is as important 鈥� maybe even more important 鈥� than finding answers. This thought dates back at least to Socrates, and it鈥檚 been reflected in many a great teacher or thinker since.

This week Robert Lucas, a University of Chicago economist who died Monday, is being as perhaps the most important economist of his generation 鈥� one who in some ways reframed the entire field of 鈥渕acro,鈥� researching the economy as a whole.聽

Yet this Nobel laureate is nowhere near as famous as, say, his Chicago colleague Milton Friedman. And by many accounts, his prescriptions were often wrong as well as right. Even the phrase he鈥檚 most associated with 鈥� 鈥渞ational expectations鈥� 鈥� wasn鈥檛 original to him. Yet by raising a big question, and then more of them, he prompted others throughout the economics field to think in fresh ways.聽

In a 1972 paper, he asked, in effect, whether a policy like expanding the money supply made sense if one doesn鈥檛 take into account the way people rationally adjust their expectations (and actions) as a result. If you think a policy will cause inflation but not much growth, for instance, you鈥檒l behave accordingly. As a businessperson, you won鈥檛 go out and hire more workers.

He isn鈥檛 remembered as unlocking a formula for economic growth. But he was fascinated by the question of why some nations raise living standards for their people faster than others.

鈥淚 do not see how one can look at figures like these without seeing them as representing possibilities,鈥� . 鈥淚s there some action a government of India could take that would lead the Indian economy to grow like Indonesia鈥檚 or Egypt鈥檚? If so, what, exactly? If not, what is it about the 鈥榥ature of India鈥� that makes it so? The consequences for human welfare involved in questions like these are simply staggering: Once one starts to think about them, it is hard to think about anything else.鈥�

What became known as the 鈥淟ucas critique鈥� of economic models has come in for its own critiques over time. But it鈥檚 still influential today. Dr. Lucas is a reminder that someone can make a difference just by posing questions that matter.