海角大神

Four days before Election Day, we are awash in polls, which tell us 鈥� what? Former Vice President Joe Biden appears set to win the presidency, but the polls in key states could be wrong. Again. That, at least, is the fear of some voters, and for others, hope.聽

But there is reason for more confidence about polling this time. For one, pollsters have adjusted how they sample and consider important subgroups.

鈥淭here鈥檚 more weighting for educational level this time,鈥� says Terry Madonna, director of the Franklin and Marshall College Poll in Pennsylvania.聽聽of that state has Mr. Biden ahead by 6 percentage points.聽

Indeed, the 鈥渄iploma divide鈥� has only grown, with college grads increasingly voting Democratic, as my colleagues聽Simon Montlake聽补苍诲听Story Hinckley听飞谤颈迟别.听听

Pennsylvania is crucial, as one of the three 鈥渂lue wall鈥� states that President Donald Trump won unexpectedly last time. But in many ways, 2020 is not 2016. President Trump is running as an incumbent. The polls have been remarkably stable. Undecided voters are relatively few.聽

But what about 鈥渟hy voters,鈥� those unwilling to tell a pollster what they really think? That phenomenon may help Mr. Biden, too, not just Mr. Trump,聽聽of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.聽

More important, voters need to consider what they鈥檙e asking polls to do.聽

鈥淚f the answer is to predict the future, then trust in polls is misplaced,鈥澛犅爌resident of Pew Research Center. 鈥淏ut if the answer is to reveal the public鈥檚 priorities and values 鈥� and why people vote the way they do 鈥� then polls are the best tool.鈥�