海角大神

2020
October
30
Friday

Monitor Daily Podcast

October 30, 2020
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Linda Feldmann
Washington Bureau Chief

Four days before Election Day, we are awash in polls, which tell us 鈥 what? Former Vice President Joe Biden appears set to win the presidency, but the polls in key states could be wrong. Again. That, at least, is the fear of some voters, and for others, hope.聽

But there is reason for more confidence about polling this time. For one, pollsters have adjusted how they sample and consider important subgroups.

鈥淭here鈥檚 more weighting for educational level this time,鈥 says Terry Madonna, director of the Franklin and Marshall College Poll in Pennsylvania.聽聽of that state has Mr. Biden ahead by 6 percentage points.聽

Indeed, the 鈥渄iploma divide鈥 has only grown, with college grads increasingly voting Democratic, as my colleagues聽Simon Montlake聽补苍诲听Story Hinckley听飞谤颈迟别.听听

Pennsylvania is crucial, as one of the three 鈥渂lue wall鈥 states that President Donald Trump won unexpectedly last time. But in many ways, 2020 is not 2016. President Trump is running as an incumbent. The polls have been remarkably stable. Undecided voters are relatively few.聽

But what about 鈥渟hy voters,鈥 those unwilling to tell a pollster what they really think? That phenomenon may help Mr. Biden, too, not just Mr. Trump,聽聽of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.聽

More important, voters need to consider what they鈥檙e asking polls to do.聽

鈥淚f the answer is to predict the future, then trust in polls is misplaced,鈥澛犅爌resident of Pew Research Center. 鈥淏ut if the answer is to reveal the public鈥檚 priorities and values 鈥 and why people vote the way they do 鈥 then polls are the best tool.鈥


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Today’s stories

And why we wrote them

Global report

Thomas Peter/Reuters
A protester wearing a President Donald Trump mask gestures during a "March of Gratitude to the U.S." event in Hong Kong on Dec. 1, 2019. Mr. Trump's signing of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act earned him the admiration of Hong Kong pro-democracy demonstrators.

Despite his broad unpopularity around the world, Donald Trump is not without his international supporters. What is it about the U.S. president that earns the respect and approval of non-Americans?

Melanie Stetson Freeman/Staff
A U.S. flag flies on a farm on Sept. 25, 2020, in Wisconsin. On the whole, farmers support President Donald Trump.

Farmers are an important rural constituency, whose support for President Trump has held up despite his trade wars that dented exports.聽

Gender parity is coming to the leadership ranks at the United Nations. For women, the progress is long overdue. And while it has been and still is a priority of the secretary-general, powerful challenges remain.

Rethinking the News

A space for constructive conversations
Jessica Mendoza/海角大神
Jerica Wortham sits on a couch at Fulton Street Books and Coffee, a newly opened business in Tulsa, Oklahoma, on Oct. 1, 2020. Ms. Wortham, a spoken-word artist and art curator, says the spirit of entrepreneurship is alive and well in Tulsa's Black community.

Tulsa鈥檚 Black Wall Street burned. These artists have a new vision (audio).

As Tulsa, Oklahoma, gears up to commemorate the 1921 race massacre,聽a new generation of Tulsans are finding ways to make the story of Black Wall Street their own. What can the country learn from their efforts?

Black Wall Street: 鈥楨verything is Us鈥

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Books

Amid the flood of books about President Trump, three thoughtful ones stand out. They go beneath the surface to examine the president鈥檚 actions and character, but also the currents of thought that first brought him to power.聽


The Monitor's View

AP
A member of Bolivia's Electoral Tribunal works on the vote count after the Oct. 18 election.

Wouldn鈥檛 much of the world, not to mention Americans, be delighted if these statements were voiced after the Nov. 3 presidential election in the United States:

The people have 鈥渞ejected the ominous predictions of confrontation and violence.鈥

鈥淧eople voted in freedom and the result was clear and forceful, giving great legitimacy to the incoming government.鈥

鈥淐itizens reaffirmed their support for democracy in a calm and respectful atmosphere, ... paving the way back to the constitutional framework.鈥

Actually, the three different comments were made after an election in Bolivia on Oct. 18 by, respectively, the head of聽the country鈥檚 electoral authority and two foreign observer groups, the Organization of American States and the Carter Center. The European Union also commended Bolivia for holding a clean and transparent election.

What makes the statements stand out 鈥 especially in a world leaning authoritarian and coping with the coronavirus 鈥 is that they mark the surprise recovery of Bolivia鈥檚 democracy. A year ago, a longtime and increasingly autocratic ruler, President Evo Morales, was forced to flee the country after a very controversial election in which ballot counting was inexplicably frozen for 24 hours until he was declared the winner.

Under an interim government, Bolivia has since reformed its electoral authority in a bipartisan way, cleaned up its voting procedures, and conducted a voter education campaign. With renewed faith in the system, voters turned out in record participation despite high rates of COVID-19. The underdog in the race, former President Carlos Mesa, said beforehand that he would accepts the results. The winner, Luis Arce, a former finance minister under Mr. Morales, vowed to form a government of national unity after taking office Nov. 8.

Democracy in Bolivia is now more institutionalized and less driven by personal rule. 鈥淭his affirms how people want to live in peace and with institutions that fulfill their mission,鈥 said Salvador Romero, the head of聽the electoral authority.

Bolivian politics remains highly polarized, divided by race and income, much like the U.S. Yet voters in Bolivia turned out calmly to restore elections and try to heal those divides. Citizens who treat each other equally at the ballot box can more easily address inequalities in society. That message, even from a small country in the Andes, is a timely one for struggling democracies, starting with the U.S.


A 海角大神 Science Perspective

About this feature

Each weekday, the Monitor includes one clearly labeled religious article offering spiritual insight on contemporary issues, including the news. The publication 鈥 in its various forms 鈥 is produced for anyone who cares about the progress of the human endeavor around the world and seeks news reported with compassion, intelligence, and an essentially constructive lens. For many, that caring has religious roots. For many, it does not. The Monitor has always embraced both audiences. The Monitor is owned by a church 鈥 The First Church of Christ, Scientist, in Boston 鈥 whose founder was concerned with both the state of the world and the quality of available news.

There鈥檚 a kind of mask that isn鈥檛 a physical covering, but a limitation or judgment we mentally put on ourselves and others. Praying to see beyond those unhelpful mental masks and recognize everyone鈥檚 true identity as God鈥檚 child opens the door to healing, as a young man experienced when he developed a severe eating disorder.


A message of love

Peter Cziborra/Reuters
People walk among pumpkins and squashes arranged as part of a display depicting a giant pumpkin wearing a face mask, at Sunnyfields Farm in Southampton, England, Oct. 24, 2020.
( The illustrations in today’s Monitor Daily are by Karen Norris. )

A look ahead

Thank you for joining us today. On Monday, please come back for staff writer Peter Grier鈥檚 look at four years under President Donald Trump and the impact on American democracy.

More issues

2020
October
30
Friday

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