Infinite prizes for ideas on progress
Every few years, the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to thinkers who offer fresh insights on the sources of economic progress. A good example is this year鈥檚 award 鈥� or rather, awards 鈥� announced on Monday. They were given to three people: two with a theory about progress 鈥� 鈥渃reative destruction鈥� 鈥� and another who points to a 鈥渃ulture of growth.鈥� Given this long record of Nobels, there appears no end to the idea that ideas on progress have no end.
One of this year鈥檚 winners, economic historian Joel Mokyr, even states that growth depends heavily on an infinite source 鈥� what people believe, or specifically, a societal perspective that not only expects more ideas to be discovered but also makes them practical. This facilitates a continuous flow of聽innovation 鈥� such as clean energy or regenerative agriculture 鈥� that can provide sustainable growth.
Dr. Mokyr鈥檚 work on the origins of Britain鈥檚 Industrial Revolution showed how a change of view in a country can unlock curiosity and creativity. By itself, material innovation is not the key but rather the surrounding culture 鈥� such as a tolerance for failure in research, rule of law to protect patents, or an appreciation for the scientific method. And progress is not always linear. Leonardo da Vinci, for example, designed an early version of a helicopter in the 15th century. Today, many experts claim artificial intelligence is more dangerous than it is transformative.
Yet a society that sees progress as natural will spur new inventions, including ones that fix problems caused by past inventions. 鈥淥penness is a driver of growth,鈥� one of this year鈥檚 Nobel winners, Philippe Aghion, told reporters this week. 鈥淎nything that gets in the way of openness is an obstruction to growth.鈥�
Ingenuity is a bottomless trait, and yet its role in economic growth requires the right set of conditions: freedom, collaboration, equality, and a receptivity to challenging ideas. Future economists might posit different causes of growth. The field has had to broaden its scope to many areas, from religion to quantum mechanics.
One constant, however, is the boundless attempts to measure the immeasurable flow of inspiration that, despite fits and starts, uplifts humanity. 鈥淲e consistently fail to grasp how many ideas remain to be discovered,鈥� states a former Nobel winner in economics, Paul Romer. There might be no end to prizes for new theories of progress.
