海角大神

The short-lived rebellion in Russia last weekend has raised uncertainty about the future of Moscow鈥檚 military influence in Africa, where the mercenary Wagner Group has been the forward arm of President Vladimir Putin鈥檚 strategic interests. For African leaders, however, the failed mutiny prompts a different question: Does the continent鈥檚 future rely more on guns or on the civic values of democracy?

The answer was unequivocal for more than 50 leaders from Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe, who had gathered last week in Poland. Being merely pro-liberty is not enough, the group declared in a statement. 鈥淒efending democracy requires common purpose 鈥� of solidarity 鈥� among democrats inside and outside all countries.鈥澛�

That consensus takes aim at a core tenet of Africa鈥檚 diplomacy 鈥� that the continent must resist choosing sides between great powers, such as the West and its global rivals. That explains how Kenya could announce its intentions for a trade deal with Russia in late May and then, three weeks later, sign another deal with the European Union. It explains why nearly half of all African governments refuse to condemn Russia for invading Ukraine.

By staying neutral, African leaders argue, they can promote equality between richer and poorer nations and help broker peace in foreign conflicts. Yet pursuing ties simultaneously with countries that uphold democratic values and with those that undermine them has instead resulted in costly entanglements, intense foreign competition over strategic natural resources, conflict, and financial dependency.

Wagner鈥檚 spread across a handful of faltering countries, mostly concentrated in the Sahel region, has undermined efforts by France and the United States to strengthen professional African militaries under civilian command. 鈥淚ts effect,鈥� the United States Institute of Peace noted recently, 鈥渋s to strengthen rule by force rather than by democracy and law [and] to promote corruption over transparency.鈥�

Mr. Putin has said that Wagner鈥檚 roughly 5,000 personnel will stay in Africa. Moscow鈥檚 interests in Africa, ranging from resource extraction to a military base on the Red Sea coast of Sudan, have not changed.

But Africa鈥檚 determination to remain nonaligned now faces a pivotal test. South Africa is due in August to host the leaders of the so-called BRICS countries 鈥� including Brazil, Russia, India, and China. In March, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Mr. Putin. That puts South Africa, as a signatory to the ICC, under an obligation to arrest the Russian president if he attends the summit.

鈥淚鈥檓 quite sure, we can鈥檛 say to President Putin, please come to South Africa, and then arrest him,鈥� former South African President Thabo Mbeki told the South African Broadcasting Corp. in May. 鈥淎t the same time, we can鈥檛 say come to South Africa, and not arrest him 鈥� because we鈥檙e defying our own law. ... We can鈥檛 behave as a lawless government.鈥�

On the point of opposing a war of aggression, neutrality does not apply.