China鈥檚 lesson in correcting itself
Twice in the past half-year, China has pulled itself back from the brink of disaster, offering up a lesson for any country where extreme official rhetoric can get out of control.
Last December, Chinese leader Xi Jinping abruptly reversed his 鈥渮ero-COVID鈥� policy 鈥� which relied on metaphors of war 鈥� after mass protests against its draconian effects on society threatened his rule. China has since fared well with a fading pandemic.
Then in recent months, Mr. Xi made an even more important about-face. Official media now allow commentary arguing against the regime鈥檚 own statements about taking Taiwan by military force, even allowing some articles to call the notion of war 鈥渟tupid.鈥�
Last year, Mr. Xi himself instructed his military to be prepared for an invasion by 2027. Chinese warplanes often flew into Taiwanese airspace. Yet the rhetoric of a war may have become too close to a self-fulfilling prophecy.
鈥淪ome ordinary Chinese have come to sincerely believe that war will break out over Taiwan in the near future,鈥� says China expert Katsuji Nakazawa in the Japanese publication Nikkei. 鈥淚t became necessary to calm, for now, a groundswell of public opinion inflamed by wolf-warrior propaganda.鈥�
China will now 鈥減ush for the peaceful development鈥� of ties with Taiwan, said Wang Huning, a new and powerful official in charge of policy toward Taiwan. 鈥淐ross-strait exchanges should be restored and expanded step by step, and friendship with people from all social strata in Taiwan should be cultivated,鈥� he said this week.
Mr. Xi has many reasons to cool the propaganda. He may want to influence the outcome of Taiwan鈥檚 democratic election next year 鈥� the country鈥檚 eighth presidential election 鈥� perhaps hoping for a Beijing-friendly leader to be chosen. He sees how badly Russia botched its invasion of Ukraine and the united Western response in defending a democracy. China鈥檚 threatening posture toward Taiwan has also brought many Asian countries, from India to South Korea, into formal or informal alliances.
China faces so many domestic problems 鈥� a low birth rate, increasing economic isolation by the West, and a dependency on Taiwan-made computer chips 鈥� that an invasion seems as threatening to the Communist Party as the protests against the harsh COVID-19 policy.
Mr. Xi has been 鈥渟obered鈥� by the Russian invasion and the economic implications of an invasion of Taiwan, says CIA Director William Burns. That soberness is now reflected in the ruling party鈥檚 official rhetoric. Perhaps a more pacifistic tone will lead to more peaceful actions.
