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Why the debt limit won't expire in February

Last month, Congress and President Obama agreed to reopen the government they had closed and suspend the debt limit until February 7. But, in your nation鈥檚 capital, February really means March. Or May. Or possibly June.

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Jacquelyn Martin/AP/File
A statue of former Treasury Secretary Albert Gallatin stands outside the Treasury Building in Washington. The current debt limit is set to expire in February 2014, but Gleckman doubts that will actually happen.

For those of you keeping score, the Congressional Budget Office now聽聽the next showdown over the nation鈥檚 debt limit will occur in March, or maybe as late as May or early June. That means up to six more months of fiscal uncertainty, unless Congress decides to kick the can further down the road before the next government shutdown鈥搉ow scheduled for mid-January.

You may recall that our last fiscal crisis concluded a month ago when Congress and President Obama agreed to reopen the government they had closed and suspend the debt limit until February 7.

But, as it happens, February 7 doesn鈥檛 really mean February 7. In your nation鈥檚 capital, February really means March. Or May. Or possibly June.

Thus,聽May, or possibly June, is the same as February here, only hotter.

June may become fiscal February because the Treasury Department has the ability to take what are called聽聽to keep borrowing for months after the law says it can鈥檛. This is somewhat of a euphemism, however. I say this because Congress turns the debt limit into a political crisis practically every year. And each time Treasury takes the same steps to continuing borrowing long past the supposed deadline. At some point, an annual event probably stops being extraordinary.

It is something like, say, Arbor Day. This holiday comes along pretty regularly and for some聽people I鈥檓 sure it is extraordinary. But for the rest of us, Arbor Day falls somewhat short. Besides, at the Treasury Department they try to avoid extraordinary at all costs.

During the last debt limit crisis, Congress briefly considered barring Treasury from taking these once-extraordinary-but-now-routine measures. Those in the know call this the anti-OEBNR statute.

This law would have made the debt limit a real, meaningful deadline, forcing congressional action before a breach. And this year, it would have let February be February, with no opportunity for seasonal adjustment. But let鈥檚 face it, February pretty much stinks (except for the 2nd , which is both Groundhog Day and my wife鈥檚 birthday).

Of course, CBO can鈥檛 give an exact drop-date today. Though the level of spending over the next several months is fairly聽certain, tax collections are not. And the very uncertainty of a distant date makes it even less likely lawmakers will pay attention any time soon.

The only real consequence of the delay, of course, is that it聽gives Congress and the White House the opportunity to drag out the next fiscal crisis through spring, thus making it impossible to accomplish anything of consequence聽between now next November鈥檚 elections. After all, with campaigns in full swing you don鈥檛 think anybody will be in Washington after June, do you?

Fiscal stalemate gives Republicans more months to rail against Obamacare. And it gives the President more opportunities to turn the whole health exchange thing over to amazon. But, mostly, it means as many as six more months of dreary, February-like, budget stalemate. I, personally, can鈥檛 wait.

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