海角大神

A version of the post originally appeared on the Lesley on Africa blog. The views expressed are the author's own.聽

I鈥檓 in the process of transitioning from my current assignment back to聽The Mothership聽this month.

From what I can ascertain, here are some important developments unfolding in South Sudan over the past two weeks:

• Since mid-December, 189,000 South Sudanese have become internally displaced persons (IDPs) and聽22,600 have become refugees in neighboring Kenya, Ethiopia, and Sudan.
• Negotiations to end the crisis have聽gotten under way in Addis, and are said to be focusing on a cessation of hostilities and the release of the nine remaining political prisoners held by the government of South Sudan for their complicity in the alleged coup attempt in December.
• South Sudanese civil society organizations聽marched for peace in Juba聽this week, demanding that warring parties end the conflict.
• In a complete surprise (sarcasm)聽to anyone who watches Central Africa and the Horn, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni (M7) 聽sent the Uganda People鈥檚 Defence Force (UPDF) to 鈥渉elp evacuate Ugandan nationals鈥� in late December.聽M7聽subsequently declared聽that East African nations would move in to defeat Riek Machar if he did not accept the government of South Sudan鈥檚 ceasefire聽offer.聽Back in 2012 when Museveni likewise threatened to intervene in a hypothetical large-scale conflict between Sudan and South Sudan,聽I wrote a post explaining M7鈥瞫 motivations, and聽I think many of these motivations are still valid today. In any event, M7 is聽now being asked by the Ugandan parliament聽why he failed to secure parliamentary approval before deploying the UPDF to South Sudan.
• Sudanese President聽Omar al-Bashir visited Juba聽earlier this week. Although initial reports stated that Sudan and South Sudan had agreed to a聽joint military force to protect South Sudan鈥檚 oilfields, it now appears that聽Sudan is sending 900 technicians聽to help run the oilfields 鈥� positions that were likely vacated by the evacuation of foreign oil workers in December. For additional insight on Sudan鈥檚 equities in the current crisis in South Sudan, I recommend reading posts by聽Magdi el Gizouli聽and聽Aly Verjee. 聽Many of us have been wondering what role Sudan might play in the crisis given the ruling regime鈥檚 reliance on oil transport fees from the export of South Sudan鈥檚 oil on one hand, and its support for anti-SPLA armed groups from the mid-1980s until quite recently, on the other hand.
• Meanwhile, as聽@SamRosmarinaptly noted,聽SPLM-North, which has been fighting the government of Sudan in Blue Nile state and the Nuba Mountains since 2011, has been oddly quiet during all of this. The government of South Sudan had been supporting its civil war-era brothers-in-arms and the government of Sudan had been supporting various armed groups in South Sudan 鈥� but I鈥檓 not yet sure where SPLM-North is going to come into play in the current crisis, given Khartoum鈥檚 current support of the government in Juba.
• David Yau Yau, who had been聽leading a rebellion聽in Jonglei state since 2010 (with an amnesty period between June 2011 and April 2012), may have聽agreed to a ceasefire聽with the government of South Sudan. (Shameless Self Promotion: Read more about the government鈥檚聽amnesty and integration approach to armed groups.) When instability broke out in Jonglei state in mid-December, the government of South Sudan was quick to extend Yau Yau a聽new offer of amnesty, possibly because it聽feared he would link up with the forces of聽serial SPLA defector聽Peter Gadet. This is, of course, not to assume that such an alliance would have been inevitable due to a history of tensions between the Murle (Yau Yau鈥檚 ethnic group) and the Nuer (Gadet鈥檚 ethnic group) and the fact that Gadet had been countering Yau Yau鈥檚 rebellion as part of his SPLA command until his defection in December.
• Spurred into action by the events of December 2013, a civil society initiative,聽Fresh Start South Sudan,聽came out with its聽Statement of Purpose. The initiative will officially launch in March 2014, and in the mean time,聽you can join here.

Here鈥檚 a few readings that have come highly recommended to me over the past few days. Full disclosure: since I haven鈥檛 yet gotten through all of these, consider this more of a 鈥淲hat I鈥檓 Reading鈥� List:

• Breakdown in South Sudan聽by Alex de Waal and Abdul Mohammed
• South Sudan and the Prospects for Peace Amidst Violent Political Wrangling聽by Jok Madut Jok
• The Crisis in South Sudan聽by Lauren Ploch Blanchard
• The Way Forward in South Sudan聽by Mahmood Mamdani
• How the U.S. Triumph in South Sudan Came Undone聽by Colum Lynch
• No, the West Should Not Have Governed South Sudan聽by Ken Opalo
• African Union Missing in Action in Conflicts from Mali to South Sudan聽by Martin Plaut
• Crisis and Opportunity in South Sudan聽by Ambassador Princeton Lyman, Jon Temin, and Susan Stigant
• Comprendre la guerre suicidaire au Soudan du Sud聽(interview w/ Gerard Prunier, si vous lisez fran莽ais)

Man, I have A LOT of reading to get done!