海角大神

A version of the post originally appeared on the blog. The views expressed are the author's own.聽

I鈥檓 in the process of transitioning from my current assignment back to聽聽this month.

From what I can ascertain, here are some important developments unfolding in South Sudan over the past two weeks:

• , 189,000 South Sudanese have become internally displaced persons (IDPs) and聽22,600 have become refugees in neighboring Kenya, Ethiopia, and Sudan.
• Negotiations to end the crisis have聽, and are said to be focusing on a cessation of hostilities and the release of the nine remaining political prisoners held by the government of South Sudan for their complicity in the alleged coup attempt in December.
• South Sudanese civil society organizations聽聽this week, demanding that warring parties end the conflict.
• In a complete surprise (sarcasm)聽to anyone who watches Central Africa and the Horn, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni (M7) 聽sent the Uganda People鈥檚 Defence Force (UPDF) to 鈥渉elp evacuate Ugandan nationals鈥� in late December.聽M7聽聽that East African nations would move in to defeat Riek Machar if he did not accept the government of South Sudan鈥檚 ceasefire聽offer.聽Back in 2012 when Museveni likewise threatened to intervene in a hypothetical large-scale conflict between Sudan and South Sudan,聽, and聽I think many of these motivations are still valid today. In any event, M7 is聽why he failed to secure parliamentary approval before deploying the UPDF to South Sudan.
• Sudanese President聽聽earlier this week. Although initial reports stated that Sudan and South Sudan had agreed to a聽, it now appears that聽聽to help run the oilfields 鈥� positions that were likely vacated by the evacuation of foreign oil workers in December. For additional insight on Sudan鈥檚 equities in the current crisis in South Sudan, I recommend reading posts by聽听补苍诲听. 聽Many of us have been wondering what role Sudan might play in the crisis given the ruling regime鈥檚 reliance on oil transport fees from the export of South Sudan鈥檚 oil on one hand, and its support for anti-SPLA armed groups from the mid-1980s until quite recently, on the other hand.
• Meanwhile, as聽,聽SPLM-North, which has been fighting the government of Sudan in Blue Nile state and the Nuba Mountains since 2011, has been oddly quiet during all of this. The government of South Sudan had been supporting its civil war-era brothers-in-arms and the government of Sudan had been supporting various armed groups in South Sudan 鈥� but I鈥檓 not yet sure where SPLM-North is going to come into play in the current crisis, given Khartoum鈥檚 current support of the government in Juba.
• David Yau Yau, who had been聽聽in Jonglei state since 2010 (with an amnesty period between June 2011 and April 2012), may have聽聽with the government of South Sudan. (Shameless Self Promotion: Read more about the government鈥檚聽.) When instability broke out in Jonglei state in mid-December, the government of South Sudan was quick to extend Yau Yau a聽, possibly because it聽feared he would link up with the forces of聽聽Peter Gadet. This is, of course, not to assume that such an alliance would have been inevitable due to a history of tensions between the Murle (Yau Yau鈥檚 ethnic group) and the Nuer (Gadet鈥檚 ethnic group) and the fact that Gadet had been countering Yau Yau鈥檚 rebellion as part of his SPLA command until his defection in December.
• Spurred into action by the events of December 2013, a civil society initiative,聽,聽came out with its聽. The initiative will officially launch in March 2014, and in the mean time,聽.

Here鈥檚 a few readings that have come highly recommended to me over the past few days. Full disclosure: since I haven鈥檛 yet gotten through all of these, consider this more of a 鈥淲hat I鈥檓 Reading鈥� List:

• 聽by Alex de Waal and Abdul Mohammed
• 聽by Jok Madut Jok
• 聽by Lauren Ploch Blanchard
• 聽by Mahmood Mamdani
• 聽by Colum Lynch
• 聽by Ken Opalo
• 聽by Martin Plaut
• 聽by Ambassador Princeton Lyman, Jon Temin, and Susan Stigant
• 聽(interview w/ Gerard Prunier, si vous lisez fran莽ais)

Man, I have A LOT of reading to get done!