Somalia: Al Shabab loses Afgoye and Afmadow. Is Kismayo next?
Military advances by African Union troops and Somali forces have pushed the Islamist Al Shabab militia out of key towns. Is the Shabab headquarters of Kismayo next on the list?
Military advances by African Union troops and Somali forces have pushed the Islamist Al Shabab militia out of key towns. Is the Shabab headquarters of Kismayo next on the list?
鈥⒙犅�A version of this post appeared on the blog "Sahel Blog."聽The views expressed are the author's own.
On Friday, troops from Somalia鈥檚 Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)聽captured the town of Afgoye from the rebel movement al Shabab, in what the Associated Press called 鈥渢he biggest victory over al-Shabab since the pro-government forces took control of the capital last August鈥� (more聽here). Further south, troops from the Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF), who have been fighting in Somalia since October, took the town of聽Afmadow聽from al Shabab some time between yesterday and today (Kenyan troops also took the town of聽Hayo). The KDF鈥檚 next major goal is tocapture the port city of Kismayo聽鈥� al Shabab鈥檚 鈥渓ast key bastion鈥� 鈥� by August.
McClatchy says the importance of聽Kismayo聽lies in the fees al Shabab charges at the port. Its loss would therefore deprive the group not only of territory but of much of its income.
Brief fighting occurred in Kismayo earlier this week, when Kenyan warships reportedly came under fire and聽shelled the city聽in response. 鈥淔or the past couple of months,鈥� VOA says, 鈥淜ismayo has come under fire targeting al-Shabab from air and sea.鈥�
Here is a map showing Afgoye, Afmadow, and Kismayo, as well as the capital Mogadishu.
听惭础笔
Military conquests by the government and its allies are coming at the same time as聽some political progress聽鈥� namely a framework for holding presidential elections by August 20. This combination has generated significant optimism about Somalia鈥檚 future. It is important to note, though, that there has been some criticism of and disagreement with that line.聽Dayo Olopade, for example, notes that the Kenyan intervention in Somalia has lasted much longer than Kenyan leaders first implied it would, and decries 鈥渦nacceptable side effects鈥� of the conflicts, namely bombings inside Kenya that seem to be reprisals by al Shabab and its sympathizers.聽Roland Marchal, meanwhile, asks important questions about what political arrangements conquerors will create in areas formerly held by al Shabab:
What do you think? Where is this all headed?
鈥撀燗lex Thurston聽is a PhD student studying Islam in聽Africa聽at聽Northwestern University聽and blogs at聽Sahel Blog.