海角大神

In the run-up to the 2008 election, when Brandy Derrick was first becoming politically aware, she joined millions of Texans in voting to reject Democratic nominee Barack Obama. Former GOP Sen. John McCain carried Tarrant County, where she lives, by double digits.

He won Texas by a similar margin, but Tarrant, which includes the city of Fort Worth and its suburbs, was the only urban county he won. Three other major metropolitan counties 鈥� Bexar (San Antonio), Dallas, and Harris (Houston) 鈥� flipped that year to join Travis County (Austin) in voting Democratic, and they haven鈥檛 flipped back since.

Last year, Tarrant County joined them, voting for a statewide Democrat 鈥� U.S. Senate candidate Beto O鈥橰ourke 鈥� for the first time since 1990. Ms. Derrick, owner of Legal Ease Bookkeeping in Fort Worth, was not surprised.

鈥淚 think Texas as a whole is moving that way,鈥� she says.

Democrats certainly hope so 鈥� but then, they鈥檝e been hoping so for a while. With Texas slowly but inevitably moving into majority-minority status, it鈥檚 become something of a biennial tradition in the Lone Star State to ask if the next election will finally mark the end of decades of Republican dominance.

Every dawn has been false. Last year, Sen. Ted Cruz beat Mr. O鈥橰ourke despite becoming the first top-of-the-ticket Republican to lose in all of the major Texas metro areas since Barry Goldwater in 1964.聽But next year could, as the saying goes, be the year. While no Democrat won statewide in 2018, in terms of turnout and down-ballot races the party had its best election in decades.

Lately, a rash of congressional Republicans opting not to run for reelection 鈥� a phenomenon some are calling the 鈥淭exodus鈥� 鈥� has only fueled Democrats鈥� excitement. And to understand why Texas politics is shifting, many say, you shouldn鈥檛 just look at the state鈥檚 growing Hispanic population. You should look at where those GOP retirements are happening: around the booming, increasingly liberal cities.

鈥淭he two broad demographic trends that are occurring nationally are: number one, blue-collar working-class voters are becoming more conservative. That is turning Midwestern states more Republican,鈥� Senator Cruz told reporters at the Monitor Breakfast on Thursday. At the same time, 鈥渟uburban voters 鈥� in particular suburban women 鈥� have been moving left. That鈥檚 turning states with big suburban populations 鈥� states like Texas, states like Georgia, states like Arizona 鈥� much more purple.鈥�

鈥淚f we lose Texas,鈥� he adds, 鈥渋t鈥檚 game over.鈥澛�

An urban-suburban boom

As measured by job creation and population growth, the 鈥淭exas Triangle鈥� bounded by Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio-Austin is the strongest economic region in the United States. While Houston is the hub of the U.S. energy industry, big tech companies are settling in Austin (Google and Apple) and Dallas (Uber).

And with a large, young, and college-educated workforce flocking to live and work in the region, these Texas cities and suburbs have been both gaining political power and becoming more solidly liberal. Research by Ren茅e Cross and Richard Murray at the University of Houston has found that聽voters in the 27 counties around big metro areas grew from 52% of the total electorate in 1968 to 69% in 2018. Meanwhile, voters in the more rural counties 鈥� outside the Democratic strongholds in south Texas 鈥� decreased from 38% to 8% in that time.

Mr. O鈥橰ourke in particular was effective in ginning up support and 鈥� crucially, for a low-turnout demographic 鈥� votes from young Texans. He carried the state鈥檚 five major urban counties by a combined 790,000 votes last year, six times more than Mr. Obama in 2012. Registering and turning out more voters in those cities and suburbs is at the core of Texas Democrats鈥� plan, released this week,聽to flip 鈥渢he biggest battleground state in the country.鈥�

The 鈥淭exodus鈥� suggests that Republicans in the state may have the same concerns. Four of the five congressmen who will be stepping down next year represent suburban districts that have become increasingly competitive; the fifth, Rep. Will Hurd, represents a vast border district that is the most competitive in the state.

鈥淭he people [Texas] is attracting, the job opportunities, are magnets for younger voters, voters who are perhaps more liberal,鈥� says Ann Bowman, a political scientist at Texas A&M University.聽鈥淭he Beto effect was mobilizing younger voters,鈥� she adds. 鈥淎re we going to see that in 2020? The general trend is for younger voters to turn out less.鈥�

An unpopular president

What could boost Democratic turnout is the Republican ticket being led by one of the most unpopular presidents in recent memory. Just 45% of registered voters in Texas approve of President Trump, while 50% don鈥檛, according to a poll this week from Quinnipiac University. He trailed most of his Democratic challengers head-to-head in the state in a recent University of Texas at Tyler survey.

Mr. Trump鈥檚 often harsh and divisive rhetoric 鈥渢rumps anything he鈥檚 doing with the economy for many suburban women,鈥� says Nancy Bocskor, director of the Center for Women in Politics and Public Policy at Texas Woman鈥檚 University in Denton.

鈥淪uburban women are going to turn out and vote,鈥� she adds. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 a bigger wild card here than the growing number of Hispanic voters.鈥�

Decades of political dominance in Texas could also now be making life more difficult for Republicans.

As in states around the country, a lack of competitive general elections has led to competitive primaries, with Republicans drifting further and further to the right since former President George W. Bush built his presidential campaign on 鈥渃ompassionate conservatism鈥� and his ability to work with Democrats while governor of Texas. This in turn has alienated moderate voters, including in suburbs that used to be conservative strongholds.

鈥淚f all you鈥檙e doing as a political party is communicating with your primary voters, that鈥檚 a great way to perhaps win the next election, but what it is not is a way to grow your party,鈥� says Harold Cook, a longtime Democratic strategist in Texas.

Republicans in the state legislature responded to that head-on in the legislative session earlier this year, avoiding the polarizing cultural issues like the failed 鈥渂athroom bill鈥� that had marked the 2017 session in favor of pocketbook issues like property tax and public education reform. Whether those efforts generated enough goodwill to help Republicans 13 months from now remains to be seen.

鈥淚 think a lot of these legislators made very smart moves to help shore up that Republican brand,鈥� says Professor Bocskor. 鈥淭hey were spot on in targeting what suburban women are concerned about.鈥�

Yet right now, 鈥渢he biggest issues are health care and immigration and gun control,鈥澛爏ays Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston.聽鈥淭hose are all issues that break badly for Republicans in terms of support from suburban women.鈥�

鈥淲e鈥檙e not there yet鈥�

Thirteen years after they traded Northern California for North Texas, Melissa and Mike Patruso are beginning to feel more at home 鈥� politically, at least 鈥� in Watauga, a suburb north of Fort Worth.

鈥淗ow well Beto did in the election last year 鈥� that was surprising,鈥� says Mrs. Patruso, 鈥渁nd good.鈥�

So could 2020 be the year? Will Texas turn blue?

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think so just yet,鈥� she says. 鈥淲e鈥檙e not there yet.鈥�

Most experts agree that Democrats鈥� 18-year streak of not winning a statewide race in Texas will probably continue into 2022. Mr. Trump will likely turn out voters who support him as much as he will voters who reject him, and fear of Republicans losing Texas 鈥� and its huge cache of 38 electoral votes 鈥� could also motivate conservative voters.

Democrats further down the ballot will face a new hurdle next year, with straight-ticket balloting eliminated by the state legislature聽after the 2018 election. And unlike that election, Republicans in Texas now know they鈥檙e in for a fight.

鈥淒emocrats won鈥檛 be able to take them by surprise this time,鈥� says Mr. Cook, the Democratic strategist. 鈥淭here鈥檚 only one way to run in an atmosphere like this, and that鈥檚 to run scared.鈥澛犅�

鈥淭exas is going to be hotly contested,鈥� agrees Senator Cruz. 鈥淲e will see, I believe, record-setting 鈥� in fact, record-shattering 鈥� Democratic turnout in 2020, because the far-left is pissed off. They hate the president, and that is a powerful motivator.鈥� For Republicans, he adds, the key will be 鈥渢o turn everybody else out. If the left shows up in massive numbers, and everybody else doesn鈥檛, that鈥檚 how we end up with an incredibly damaging election.鈥�