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How hackers eroded Americans' trust in democratic process

Even if hackers don't strike on Election Day, the drumbeat of cyberattacks and leaks this campaign cycle has affected the way citizens view the electoral process.

Even if hackers don't actually try toÌýtamper with votingÌýTuesday, the unprecedented amount ofÌýcyberattacks this campaign cycle – and the public warnings of possible Election Day digital fraud –Ìýhas already hadÌýa profound impactÌýon American democracy.ÌýÌý

Consider this: In the wake of widespread hacksÌýagainst political organizations this summer,ÌýÌýfoundÌýthat 38 percent of Americans are "concerned"Ìýthat the election itself could be hacked, while another 18 percent are "very concerned."ÌýJust 11 percent of respondents said they were "not concerned at all."Ìý

These fearsÌýof digital sabotage, apparently,Ìýled 1 out of 5Ìýrespondents to say they might not even vote.

If that's representative of the entire electorate, it means thatÌýsome 15 million people could stay home Tuesday – as a result of a hacking campaign the Obama administration has blamed on Russia.Ìý

After anÌýunknown group or person known as Guccifer 2.0Ìýclaimed responsibility for the hack on the Democratic National CommitteeÌýthis summer, the Department of Homeland SecurityÌýand the Office of the Director of National IntelligenceÌýblamed senior Russian officialsÌýfor orchestratingÌýthe breach as part of a broader effortÌýto sway American public opinion and undermineÌýtrust in the election.Ìý

But the high-profile accusation didn't quash Guccifer: It resurfacedÌýonce again over the weekendÌýto hint at more Election Day tampering:Ìý"I will monitor that the elections are held honestly.ÌýI also call on other hackers to join me, monitor the elections from inside and inform the US society about the facts of electoral fraud."

While election and cybersecurity experts dismissed that claim as hyperbole, it may be a "last-ditch effort" to sway the vote or deter people from heading to the polls, Justin Fier, director for cyber intelligenceÌýand analysis with security firm Darktrace, .Ìý"His goal during all this time has been public influence."

Warnings that voting booths might be hacked have certainly put state election officials on alert for any abnormalities Tuesday.ÌýDHS officials say they've spoken to all 50 states about providing help with scanning their systems for risks and offering other services, but wouldn’t detail the assistance specific states had received.

But even if foreign hackers can't compromise actual voting systems, the internet campaign to spread fear of vote hacking andÌýmanipulation may be enough to have a major impactÌýon public trust.

Daniel Chiu, deputy director of the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security at the Atlantic Council, noted that sinceÌýRepublican candidate Donald Trump and others are claiming the election could be rigged, hackers don't need toÌýactually strike on Tuesday to discredit the vote. "Merely a credible claim of doing so could compel voters to cry foul and undermine the legitimacy of the vote both at home in the US and abroad," said Mr. Chiu.

To be sure,ÌýsuccessfullyÌýcompromising voting machinesÌýwould be difficult, say experts.Ìý

"The US election landscape is made up of approximately 9,000 different state and local jurisdictions, providing a patchwork of laws, standards, processes, and voting machines," notedÌýIan Gray, cyber intelligence analyst at the firm Flashpoint, .Ìý"This environment is a formidable challenge to any actor – nation-state or not – who seeks to substantially influence or alter the outcome of an election."

But that's probably not Russia's aim, he said. "Russia can most likely achieve a more reliable outcome with fewer resources not by attacking the election infrastructure directly, but rather by organizing a disinformation campaign attacking confidence in the election itself."

Some experts say that mere reports of possible Election Day hackingÌýon social media, blogs, and in mainstream news outlets couldÌýfuelÌýpost-election challenges to the results.

"If you lose faith in the process, then what? There could be appeals for months,"Ìýsaid Ben Johnson, chief security strategist at Carbon Black.Ìý"There could be appeals for months. We need to have enough integrity and transparency in the process so people are comfortable that the election wasn't tampered with."

State officials are on guard for any potential signs of tampering.Ìý"There's a heightened awareness and a heightened concern," saidÌýKaren Jackson, Virginia Secretary of Technology.Ìý"If you're paying attention to cybersecurity, then election systems are just one of the systems you're paying attention to anyway."Ìý

The idea of nameless, faceless hackers orÌýforeign spies disrupting the election, clearly, is a major concern on Tuesday. ButÌýit's not just a cyberattack that could have an impact, she notes. "Somebody could pull a fire alarm. All of those things have the power to disrupt the voting process."

Staff writer Jack Detsch contributed reporting.